An exceptionally active start to the 2026 tornado season has driven trader consensus toward an 85% implied probability for 1250+ US tornadoes, with 543 confirmed events through May 6—roughly 40% above the historical early-May average of around 400 per National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) data. Major outbreaks fueled this surge, including 106 tornadoes March 10–12 across the central US, 86 on April 17–18 in the Upper Midwest, and 98 during April 23–28 featuring an EF4 in Oklahoma. Peak months of May and June lie ahead, where climatology expects 250–300 tornadoes monthly amid favorable wind shear and instability patterns tracked by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). While preliminary counts often revise downward upon final surveys, current momentum supports exceeding the 1991–2020 annual average of about 1,200; watch SPC convective outlooks for shifts in severe weather risk.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日1250以上 84%
1200〜1249 5.8%
1150〜1199 4.0%
1100〜1149 1.7%
$71,097 Vol.
$71,097 Vol.
2027/01/10
950未満
<1%
950〜999
<1%
1000〜1049
2%
1050〜1099
2%
1100〜1149
2%
1150〜1199
4%
1200〜1249
6%
1250以上
84%
1250以上 84%
1200〜1249 5.8%
1150〜1199 4.0%
1100〜1149 1.7%
$71,097 Vol.
$71,097 Vol.
2027/01/10
950未満
$22,324 Vol.
<1%
950〜999
$2,679 Vol.
<1%
1000〜1049
$2,226 Vol.
2%
1050〜1099
$7,869 Vol.
2%
1100〜1149
$1,955 Vol.
2%
1150〜1199
$2,402 Vol.
4%
1200〜1249
$15,069 Vol.
6%
1250以上
$16,572 Vol.
84%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.An exceptionally active start to the 2026 tornado season has driven trader consensus toward an 85% implied probability for 1250+ US tornadoes, with 543 confirmed events through May 6—roughly 40% above the historical early-May average of around 400 per National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) data. Major outbreaks fueled this surge, including 106 tornadoes March 10–12 across the central US, 86 on April 17–18 in the Upper Midwest, and 98 during April 23–28 featuring an EF4 in Oklahoma. Peak months of May and June lie ahead, where climatology expects 250–300 tornadoes monthly amid favorable wind shear and instability patterns tracked by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). While preliminary counts often revise downward upon final surveys, current momentum supports exceeding the 1991–2020 annual average of about 1,200; watch SPC convective outlooks for shifts in severe weather risk.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
マーケット開始日： Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
音量
$71,097終了日
2027/01/10マーケット開始日
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.An exceptionally active start to the 2026 tornado season has driven trader consensus toward an 85% implied probability for 1250+ US tornadoes, with 543 confirmed events through May 6—roughly 40% above the historical early-May average of around 400 per National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) data. Major outbreaks fueled this surge, including 106 tornadoes March 10–12 across the central US, 86 on April 17–18 in the Upper Midwest, and 98 during April 23–28 featuring an EF4 in Oklahoma. Peak months of May and June lie ahead, where climatology expects 250–300 tornadoes monthly amid favorable wind shear and instability patterns tracked by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). While preliminary counts often revise downward upon final surveys, current momentum supports exceeding the 1991–2020 annual average of about 1,200; watch SPC convective outlooks for shifts in severe weather risk.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
音量
$71,097終了日
2027/01/10マーケット開始日
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...An exceptionally active start to the 2026 tornado season has driven trader consensus toward an 85% implied probability for 1250+ US tornadoes, with 543 confirmed events through May 6—roughly 40% above the historical early-May average of around 400 per National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) data. Major outbreaks fueled this surge, including 106 tornadoes March 10–12 across the central US, 86 on April 17–18 in the Upper Midwest, and 98 during April 23–28 featuring an EF4 in Oklahoma. Peak months of May and June lie ahead, where climatology expects 250–300 tornadoes monthly amid favorable wind shear and instability patterns tracked by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). While preliminary counts often revise downward upon final surveys, current momentum supports exceeding the 1991–2020 annual average of about 1,200; watch SPC convective outlooks for shifts in severe weather risk.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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