NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and the European Space Agency's NEO Risk List show no known asteroids on trajectories for a 1 megaton airburst or impact in 2026, driving the market's 95.8% implied probability for "No." The two tiniest candidates—11-meter 2013 TP4 and 16-meter 2023 BZ—carry cumulative impact odds below 0.004% each, with energy yields orders of magnitude below 1 megaton TNT equivalent, based on current orbital data. Comprehensive sky surveys, including recent Vera C. Rubin Observatory detections of over 11,000 new asteroids, have identified no threats, aligning with historical rarity of such bolides (roughly once per century). Realistic shifts could arise from late discovery of an undiscovered 25-meter-plus near-Earth object, though detection completeness now exceeds 95% for hazardous sizes; ongoing observations will refine catalogs through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$102,031 Vol.
$102,031 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$102,031 Vol.
$102,031 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and the European Space Agency's NEO Risk List show no known asteroids on trajectories for a 1 megaton airburst or impact in 2026, driving the market's 95.8% implied probability for "No." The two tiniest candidates—11-meter 2013 TP4 and 16-meter 2023 BZ—carry cumulative impact odds below 0.004% each, with energy yields orders of magnitude below 1 megaton TNT equivalent, based on current orbital data. Comprehensive sky surveys, including recent Vera C. Rubin Observatory detections of over 11,000 new asteroids, have identified no threats, aligning with historical rarity of such bolides (roughly once per century). Realistic shifts could arise from late discovery of an undiscovered 25-meter-plus near-Earth object, though detection completeness now exceeds 95% for hazardous sizes; ongoing observations will refine catalogs through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
マーケット開始日： Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
音量
$102,031終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and the European Space Agency's NEO Risk List show no known asteroids on trajectories for a 1 megaton airburst or impact in 2026, driving the market's 95.8% implied probability for "No." The two tiniest candidates—11-meter 2013 TP4 and 16-meter 2023 BZ—carry cumulative impact odds below 0.004% each, with energy yields orders of magnitude below 1 megaton TNT equivalent, based on current orbital data. Comprehensive sky surveys, including recent Vera C. Rubin Observatory detections of over 11,000 new asteroids, have identified no threats, aligning with historical rarity of such bolides (roughly once per century). Realistic shifts could arise from late discovery of an undiscovered 25-meter-plus near-Earth object, though detection completeness now exceeds 95% for hazardous sizes; ongoing observations will refine catalogs through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
音量
$102,031終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and the European Space Agency's NEO Risk List show no known asteroids on trajectories for a 1 megaton airburst or impact in 2026, driving the market's 95.8% implied probability for "No." The two tiniest candidates—11-meter 2013 TP4 and 16-meter 2023 BZ—carry cumulative impact odds below 0.004% each, with energy yields orders of magnitude below 1 megaton TNT equivalent, based on current orbital data. Comprehensive sky surveys, including recent Vera C. Rubin Observatory detections of over 11,000 new asteroids, have identified no threats, aligning with historical rarity of such bolides (roughly once per century). Realistic shifts could arise from late discovery of an undiscovered 25-meter-plus near-Earth object, though detection completeness now exceeds 95% for hazardous sizes; ongoing observations will refine catalogs through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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