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icon for 4月30日までに大規模な太陽嵐？

4月30日までに大規模な太陽嵐？

icon for 4月30日までに大規模な太陽嵐？

4月30日までに大規模な太陽嵐？

はい

<1% 確率
Polymarket

$13,998 Vol.

はい

<1% 確率
Polymarket

$13,998 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#) If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" major solar storm by April 30, driven by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) observational data confirming no G4 (severe) or G5 (extreme) geomagnetic storms through the deadline, as measured by the Kp index. April's activity peaked at G2 (moderate) levels around April 18 from a coronal hole high-speed solar wind stream and minor coronal mass ejection (CME) effects, with late-month 3-day forecasts predicting only sub-G2 disturbances (Kp up to 3.67). Amid Solar Cycle 25's elevated baseline, the absence of qualifying events—defined by sustained high-speed plasma impacts causing significant magnetospheric disturbances—solidifies this outcome. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented SWPC data revisions, improbable given real-time satellite monitoring from GOES and DSCOVR.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.

This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
音量
$13,998
終了日
2026/04/30
マーケット開始日
Mar 16, 2026, 5:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#) If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

提案された結果: いいえ

異議申し立てなし

最終結果: いいえ

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#) If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for "No" major solar storm by April 30, driven by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) observational data confirming no G4 (severe) or G5 (extreme) geomagnetic storms through the deadline, as measured by the Kp index. April's activity peaked at G2 (moderate) levels around April 18 from a coronal hole high-speed solar wind stream and minor coronal mass ejection (CME) effects, with late-month 3-day forecasts predicting only sub-G2 disturbances (Kp up to 3.67). Amid Solar Cycle 25's elevated baseline, the absence of qualifying events—defined by sustained high-speed plasma impacts causing significant magnetospheric disturbances—solidifies this outcome. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented SWPC data revisions, improbable given real-time satellite monitoring from GOES and DSCOVR.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.

This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
音量
$13,998
終了日
2026/04/30
マーケット開始日
Mar 16, 2026, 5:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a solar radiation storm with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered. This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#) If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

提案された結果: いいえ

異議申し立てなし

最終結果: いいえ

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「4月30日までに大規模な太陽嵐？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「4月30日までに大規模な太陽嵐が発生しますか？」で0%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、0¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に0%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「4月30日までに大規模な太陽嵐？」は$14Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Mar 16, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「4月30日までに大規模な太陽嵐？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「4月30日までに大規模な太陽嵐？」の現在のリーダーは「4月30日までに大規模な太陽嵐が発生しますか？」でわずか0%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「4月30日までに大規模な太陽嵐？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。