Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data places April 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly at approximately 1.43°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline—equivalent to about 1.17°C above the NOAA 1901-2000 average—ranking it as the fourth-warmest April on record and driving trader consensus to 96% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC bin versus that 20th-century reference. This positioning reflects ENSO-neutral conditions persisting through the month, with global sea surface temperatures hitting the second-highest April levels on record at 21.08°C, tempering extremes from prior El Niño peaks. Official NOAA confirmation, expected May 8–10, and Copernicus bulletin could prompt minor revisions from late-arriving Arctic observations, but historical data adjustments rarely exceed 0.02°C, making a bin shift unlikely absent measurement errors.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年4月温度上昇（º C ）
2026年4月温度上昇（º C ）
1.15～1.19℃ 95.8%
1.20〜1.24ºC 4.2%
1.10〜1.14℃ 1.4%
>1.29ºC <1%
$333,542 Vol.
$333,542 Vol.
2026/05/10
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10〜1.14℃
1%
1.15～1.19℃
96%
1.20〜1.24ºC
4%
1.25〜1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.15～1.19℃ 95.8%
1.20〜1.24ºC 4.2%
1.10〜1.14℃ 1.4%
>1.29ºC <1%
$333,542 Vol.
$333,542 Vol.
2026/05/10
<1.10ºC
$54,938 Vol.
<1%
1.10〜1.14℃
$61,450 Vol.
1%
1.15～1.19℃
$47,152 Vol.
96%
1.20〜1.24ºC
$67,971 Vol.
4%
1.25〜1.29ºC
$57,492 Vol.
<1%
>1.29ºC
$44,538 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data places April 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly at approximately 1.43°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline—equivalent to about 1.17°C above the NOAA 1901-2000 average—ranking it as the fourth-warmest April on record and driving trader consensus to 96% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC bin versus that 20th-century reference. This positioning reflects ENSO-neutral conditions persisting through the month, with global sea surface temperatures hitting the second-highest April levels on record at 21.08°C, tempering extremes from prior El Niño peaks. Official NOAA confirmation, expected May 8–10, and Copernicus bulletin could prompt minor revisions from late-arriving Arctic observations, but historical data adjustments rarely exceed 0.02°C, making a bin shift unlikely absent measurement errors.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
マーケット開始日： Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
音量
$333,542終了日
2026/05/10マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data places April 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly at approximately 1.43°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline—equivalent to about 1.17°C above the NOAA 1901-2000 average—ranking it as the fourth-warmest April on record and driving trader consensus to 96% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC bin versus that 20th-century reference. This positioning reflects ENSO-neutral conditions persisting through the month, with global sea surface temperatures hitting the second-highest April levels on record at 21.08°C, tempering extremes from prior El Niño peaks. Official NOAA confirmation, expected May 8–10, and Copernicus bulletin could prompt minor revisions from late-arriving Arctic observations, but historical data adjustments rarely exceed 0.02°C, making a bin shift unlikely absent measurement errors.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
音量
$333,542終了日
2026/05/10マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data places April 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly at approximately 1.43°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline—equivalent to about 1.17°C above the NOAA 1901-2000 average—ranking it as the fourth-warmest April on record and driving trader consensus to 96% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC bin versus that 20th-century reference. This positioning reflects ENSO-neutral conditions persisting through the month, with global sea surface temperatures hitting the second-highest April levels on record at 21.08°C, tempering extremes from prior El Niño peaks. Official NOAA confirmation, expected May 8–10, and Copernicus bulletin could prompt minor revisions from late-arriving Arctic observations, but historical data adjustments rarely exceed 0.02°C, making a bin shift unlikely absent measurement errors.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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