El Niño conditions, now officially declared by NOAA with expectations of strengthening into a potentially very strong event through late 2026, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating trader consensus toward the 1.15–1.19°C bin for June global surface temperature anomalies. This aligns with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, recent NASA GISS data showing 2025 at approximately 1.19°C above the 1951–1980 baseline, and model projections indicating continued elevated warmth amid high ocean heat content. ENSO forecasts from NOAA and IRI highlight rapid Pacific warming since May, with historical analogs suggesting El Niño typically adds 0.1–0.2°C to global means during its onset phase. Key upcoming inputs include the next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion and refined June observational releases from NOAA and Copernicus, which could shift probabilities if model consensus diverges.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 65%
1.10–1.14ºC 19%
1.20–1.24ºC 12%
<1.10ºC 4.5%
$11,737 Vol.
$11,737 Vol.
2026/06/30
<1.10ºC
5%
1.10–1.14ºC
19%
1.15–1.19ºC
65%
1.20–1.24ºC
12%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 65%
1.10–1.14ºC 19%
1.20–1.24ºC 12%
<1.10ºC 4.5%
$11,737 Vol.
$11,737 Vol.
2026/06/30
<1.10ºC
$389 Vol.
5%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,224 Vol.
19%
1.15–1.19ºC
$191 Vol.
65%
1.20–1.24ºC
$3,017 Vol.
12%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,615 Vol.
3%
>1.29ºC
$1,301 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions, now officially declared by NOAA with expectations of strengthening into a potentially very strong event through late 2026, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating trader consensus toward the 1.15–1.19°C bin for June global surface temperature anomalies. This aligns with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, recent NASA GISS data showing 2025 at approximately 1.19°C above the 1951–1980 baseline, and model projections indicating continued elevated warmth amid high ocean heat content. ENSO forecasts from NOAA and IRI highlight rapid Pacific warming since May, with historical analogs suggesting El Niño typically adds 0.1–0.2°C to global means during its onset phase. Key upcoming inputs include the next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion and refined June observational releases from NOAA and Copernicus, which could shift probabilities if model consensus diverges.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
マーケット開始日： May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
音量
$11,737終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions, now officially declared by NOAA with expectations of strengthening into a potentially very strong event through late 2026, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating trader consensus toward the 1.15–1.19°C bin for June global surface temperature anomalies. This aligns with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, recent NASA GISS data showing 2025 at approximately 1.19°C above the 1951–1980 baseline, and model projections indicating continued elevated warmth amid high ocean heat content. ENSO forecasts from NOAA and IRI highlight rapid Pacific warming since May, with historical analogs suggesting El Niño typically adds 0.1–0.2°C to global means during its onset phase. Key upcoming inputs include the next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion and refined June observational releases from NOAA and Copernicus, which could shift probabilities if model consensus diverges.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
音量
$11,737終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...El Niño conditions, now officially declared by NOAA with expectations of strengthening into a potentially very strong event through late 2026, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating trader consensus toward the 1.15–1.19°C bin for June global surface temperature anomalies. This aligns with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, recent NASA GISS data showing 2025 at approximately 1.19°C above the 1951–1980 baseline, and model projections indicating continued elevated warmth amid high ocean heat content. ENSO forecasts from NOAA and IRI highlight rapid Pacific warming since May, with historical analogs suggesting El Niño typically adds 0.1–0.2°C to global means during its onset phase. Key upcoming inputs include the next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion and refined June observational releases from NOAA and Copernicus, which could shift probabilities if model consensus diverges.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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