Recent observational data from NOAA and NASA show global surface temperature anomalies holding near 1.1–1.2 °C above the 1951–1980 baseline through early 2026, with March ranking as the second-warmest on record. The dominant driver shifting trader sentiment toward the 1.10–1.14 °C bin is the rapid emergence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, now under official El Niño Watch status with an 82 % chance of development by May–July. Subsurface warming and weakening trade winds are expected to add further heat to the atmosphere during May, consistent with historical El Niño amplification of global temperatures. Model consensus from NOAA’s CPC and ECMWF supports continued warmth without pushing anomalies substantially higher in this single month, while lingering ENSO-neutral influences and natural variability keep lower bins in play.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 65%
<1.10ºC 20%
1.15–1.19ºC 11%
1.20–1.24ºC 3.4%
$73,985 Vol.
$73,985 Vol.
2026/06/10
<1.10ºC
20%
1.10–1.14ºC
65%
1.15–1.19ºC
11%
1.20–1.24ºC
3%
1.25–1.29ºC
2%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC 65%
<1.10ºC 20%
1.15–1.19ºC 11%
1.20–1.24ºC 3.4%
$73,985 Vol.
$73,985 Vol.
2026/06/10
<1.10ºC
$27,415 Vol.
20%
1.10–1.14ºC
$7,321 Vol.
65%
1.15–1.19ºC
$12,432 Vol.
11%
1.20–1.24ºC
$9,749 Vol.
3%
1.25–1.29ºC
$7,696 Vol.
2%
>1.29ºC
$9,372 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from NOAA and NASA show global surface temperature anomalies holding near 1.1–1.2 °C above the 1951–1980 baseline through early 2026, with March ranking as the second-warmest on record. The dominant driver shifting trader sentiment toward the 1.10–1.14 °C bin is the rapid emergence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, now under official El Niño Watch status with an 82 % chance of development by May–July. Subsurface warming and weakening trade winds are expected to add further heat to the atmosphere during May, consistent with historical El Niño amplification of global temperatures. Model consensus from NOAA’s CPC and ECMWF supports continued warmth without pushing anomalies substantially higher in this single month, while lingering ENSO-neutral influences and natural variability keep lower bins in play.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
マーケット開始日： Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
音量
$73,985終了日
2026/06/10マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from NOAA and NASA show global surface temperature anomalies holding near 1.1–1.2 °C above the 1951–1980 baseline through early 2026, with March ranking as the second-warmest on record. The dominant driver shifting trader sentiment toward the 1.10–1.14 °C bin is the rapid emergence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, now under official El Niño Watch status with an 82 % chance of development by May–July. Subsurface warming and weakening trade winds are expected to add further heat to the atmosphere during May, consistent with historical El Niño amplification of global temperatures. Model consensus from NOAA’s CPC and ECMWF supports continued warmth without pushing anomalies substantially higher in this single month, while lingering ENSO-neutral influences and natural variability keep lower bins in play.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
音量
$73,985終了日
2026/06/10マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data from NOAA and NASA show global surface temperature anomalies holding near 1.1–1.2 °C above the 1951–1980 baseline through early 2026, with March ranking as the second-warmest on record. The dominant driver shifting trader sentiment toward the 1.10–1.14 °C bin is the rapid emergence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, now under official El Niño Watch status with an 82 % chance of development by May–July. Subsurface warming and weakening trade winds are expected to add further heat to the atmosphere during May, consistent with historical El Niño amplification of global temperatures. Model consensus from NOAA’s CPC and ECMWF supports continued warmth without pushing anomalies substantially higher in this single month, while lingering ENSO-neutral influences and natural variability keep lower bins in play.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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