Trader consensus on Polymarket closely clusters implied probabilities around 22–25°C for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 1, mirroring the latest forecasts from numerical models like GFS and ECMWF, which project daytime highs near 23°C amid a cooling trend. Recent Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates indicate northerly winds at 15–25 km/h ushering cooler, drier air after late-March peaks exceeding 28°C at Benito Juárez International Airport, the market's resolution site. Ensemble spreads of 2–3°C reflect uncertainties in cloud cover, urban heat island effects at Mexico City's 2,240-meter elevation, and residual La Niña influences fading to ENSO-neutral. Historical April 1 averages hover at 26°C, but current steering patterns favor moderation; watch daily SMN briefings and 00Z model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 1?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 1?
19℃ 9%
18℃以下 7.5%
21°C 6%
23°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
18℃以下
8%
19℃
9%
20℃
5%
21°C
6%
22°C
4%
23°C
6%
24℃
5%
25℃
5%
26°C
3%
27°C
5%
28℃以上
2%
19℃ 9%
18℃以下 7.5%
21°C 6%
23°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
18℃以下
$0 Vol.
8%
19℃
$0 Vol.
9%
20℃
$0 Vol.
5%
21°C
$0 Vol.
6%
22°C
$0 Vol.
4%
23°C
$256 Vol.
6%
24℃
$27 Vol.
5%
25℃
$10 Vol.
5%
26°C
$0 Vol.
3%
27°C
$0 Vol.
5%
28℃以上
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely clusters implied probabilities around 22–25°C for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 1, mirroring the latest forecasts from numerical models like GFS and ECMWF, which project daytime highs near 23°C amid a cooling trend. Recent Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates indicate northerly winds at 15–25 km/h ushering cooler, drier air after late-March peaks exceeding 28°C at Benito Juárez International Airport, the market's resolution site. Ensemble spreads of 2–3°C reflect uncertainties in cloud cover, urban heat island effects at Mexico City's 2,240-meter elevation, and residual La Niña influences fading to ENSO-neutral. Historical April 1 averages hover at 26°C, but current steering patterns favor moderation; watch daily SMN briefings and 00Z model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 28, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
音量
$286終了日
Apr 1, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 28, 2026, 6:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely clusters implied probabilities around 22–25°C for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 1, mirroring the latest forecasts from numerical models like GFS and ECMWF, which project daytime highs near 23°C amid a cooling trend. Recent Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates indicate northerly winds at 15–25 km/h ushering cooler, drier air after late-March peaks exceeding 28°C at Benito Juárez International Airport, the market's resolution site. Ensemble spreads of 2–3°C reflect uncertainties in cloud cover, urban heat island effects at Mexico City's 2,240-meter elevation, and residual La Niña influences fading to ENSO-neutral. Historical April 1 averages hover at 26°C, but current steering patterns favor moderation; watch daily SMN briefings and 00Z model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$286終了日
Apr 1, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 28, 2026, 6:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely clusters implied probabilities around 22–25°C for Mexico City's highest temperature on April 1, mirroring the latest forecasts from numerical models like GFS and ECMWF, which project daytime highs near 23°C amid a cooling trend. Recent Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates indicate northerly winds at 15–25 km/h ushering cooler, drier air after late-March peaks exceeding 28°C at Benito Juárez International Airport, the market's resolution site. Ensemble spreads of 2–3°C reflect uncertainties in cloud cover, urban heat island effects at Mexico City's 2,240-meter elevation, and residual La Niña influences fading to ENSO-neutral. Historical April 1 averages hover at 26°C, but current steering patterns favor moderation; watch daily SMN briefings and 00Z model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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