Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89.5% implied probability against Anthropic forging a new deal with the Pentagon, driven by the company's unyielding AI safety restrictions clashing with Department of Defense demands for unrestricted access to Claude models. In July 2025, Anthropic inked a $200 million prototyping contract for national security applications, but negotiations collapsed in early 2026 over prohibitions on mass domestic surveillance and autonomous weapons use. The Pentagon responded by designating Anthropic a supply chain risk in March, issuing memos to phase out its tech within 180 days. Anthropic's federal lawsuit challenging this failed at the appeals court on April 8, solidifying the rift and opening doors for rival AI firms, with no near-term catalysts for reconciliation amid ongoing litigation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$54,100 Vol.
$54,100 Vol.
2026/04/30
はい
$54,100 Vol.
$54,100 Vol.
2026/04/30
In February 2026, the Pentagon announced it would designate Anthropic as a national security supply chain risk after Anthropic refused to remove AI safety restrictions from its acceptable use policy. Donald Trump subsequently directed all federal agencies to cease using Anthropic's technologies, with a six-month phase-out period for agencies such as the Department of Defense which are actively using Anthropic's products.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic and the United States Department of Defense (DOD/Department of War) reach any commercial agreement to allow for the use of Claude or other Anthropic artificial intelligence models by DOD employees by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A commercial agreement between Anthropic and a broader set of the US government that grants usage of Anthropic AI models to DOD employees will count. Agreements or designations which allow Anthropic to offer its services to the DOD, but do not constitute an effective agreement for Anthropic to do so, however, will not count (e.g the inclusion of Anthropic on a Master Service Agreement or Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity contract would not count).
An official announcement of a qualifying agreement, made within this market’s timeframe, will count, regardless of whether or when the agreement actually goes into effect.
Official announcements that the previously agreed contract between Anthropic and the DOD will be fully or partially reinstated, or otherwise will continue without impediment, will count, so long as this includes extended use of Anthropic AI models by DOD employees beyond any designated phase-out period.
Continued use of Anthropic technologies by DOD employees without a qualifying agreement (e.g. during a 6 month phase-out period) will not count. A court ruling that the designation of Anthropic as a supply chain risk is unlawful will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless it is accompanied by a reinstatement of Anthropic's DOD contract or a new qualifying Anthropic-DOD agreement.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Anthropic and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89.5% implied probability against Anthropic forging a new deal with the Pentagon, driven by the company's unyielding AI safety restrictions clashing with Department of Defense demands for unrestricted access to Claude models. In July 2025, Anthropic inked a $200 million prototyping contract for national security applications, but negotiations collapsed in early 2026 over prohibitions on mass domestic surveillance and autonomous weapons use. The Pentagon responded by designating Anthropic a supply chain risk in March, issuing memos to phase out its tech within 180 days. Anthropic's federal lawsuit challenging this failed at the appeals court on April 8, solidifying the rift and opening doors for rival AI firms, with no near-term catalysts for reconciliation amid ongoing litigation.
In February 2026, the Pentagon announced it would designate Anthropic as a national security supply chain risk after Anthropic refused to remove AI safety restrictions from its acceptable use policy. Donald Trump subsequently directed all federal agencies to cease using Anthropic's technologies, with a six-month phase-out period for agencies such as the Department of Defense which are actively using Anthropic's products.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic and the United States Department of Defense (DOD/Department of War) reach any commercial agreement to allow for the use of Claude or other Anthropic artificial intelligence models by DOD employees by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A commercial agreement between Anthropic and a broader set of the US government that grants usage of Anthropic AI models to DOD employees will count. Agreements or designations which allow Anthropic to offer its services to the DOD, but do not constitute an effective agreement for Anthropic to do so, however, will not count (e.g the inclusion of Anthropic on a Master Service Agreement or Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity contract would not count).
An official announcement of a qualifying agreement, made within this market’s timeframe, will count, regardless of whether or when the agreement actually goes into effect.
Official announcements that the previously agreed contract between Anthropic and the DOD will be fully or partially reinstated, or otherwise will continue without impediment, will count, so long as this includes extended use of Anthropic AI models by DOD employees beyond any designated phase-out period.
Continued use of Anthropic technologies by DOD employees without a qualifying agreement (e.g. during a 6 month phase-out period) will not count. A court ruling that the designation of Anthropic as a supply chain risk is unlawful will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless it is accompanied by a reinstatement of Anthropic's DOD contract or a new qualifying Anthropic-DOD agreement.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Anthropic and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic and the United States Department of Defense (DOD/Department of War) reach any commercial agreement to allow for the use of Claude or other Anthropic artificial intelligence models by DOD employees by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A commercial agreement between Anthropic and a broader set of the US government that grants usage of Anthropic AI models to DOD employees will count. Agreements or designations which allow Anthropic to offer its services to the DOD, but do not constitute an effective agreement for Anthropic to do so, however, will not count (e.g the inclusion of Anthropic on a Master Service Agreement or Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity contract would not count).
An official announcement of a qualifying agreement, made within this market’s timeframe, will count, regardless of whether or when the agreement actually goes into effect.
Official announcements that the previously agreed contract between Anthropic and the DOD will be fully or partially reinstated, or otherwise will continue without impediment, will count, so long as this includes extended use of Anthropic AI models by DOD employees beyond any designated phase-out period.
Continued use of Anthropic technologies by DOD employees without a qualifying agreement (e.g. during a 6 month phase-out period) will not count. A court ruling that the designation of Anthropic as a supply chain risk is unlawful will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless it is accompanied by a reinstatement of Anthropic's DOD contract or a new qualifying Anthropic-DOD agreement.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Anthropic and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 6, 2026, 1:33 PM ET
音量
$54,100終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 6, 2026, 1:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...In February 2026, the Pentagon announced it would designate Anthropic as a national security supply chain risk after Anthropic refused to remove AI safety restrictions from its acceptable use policy. Donald Trump subsequently directed all federal agencies to cease using Anthropic's technologies, with a six-month phase-out period for agencies such as the Department of Defense which are actively using Anthropic's products.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic and the United States Department of Defense (DOD/Department of War) reach any commercial agreement to allow for the use of Claude or other Anthropic artificial intelligence models by DOD employees by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A commercial agreement between Anthropic and a broader set of the US government that grants usage of Anthropic AI models to DOD employees will count. Agreements or designations which allow Anthropic to offer its services to the DOD, but do not constitute an effective agreement for Anthropic to do so, however, will not count (e.g the inclusion of Anthropic on a Master Service Agreement or Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity contract would not count).
An official announcement of a qualifying agreement, made within this market’s timeframe, will count, regardless of whether or when the agreement actually goes into effect.
Official announcements that the previously agreed contract between Anthropic and the DOD will be fully or partially reinstated, or otherwise will continue without impediment, will count, so long as this includes extended use of Anthropic AI models by DOD employees beyond any designated phase-out period.
Continued use of Anthropic technologies by DOD employees without a qualifying agreement (e.g. during a 6 month phase-out period) will not count. A court ruling that the designation of Anthropic as a supply chain risk is unlawful will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless it is accompanied by a reinstatement of Anthropic's DOD contract or a new qualifying Anthropic-DOD agreement.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Anthropic and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89.5% implied probability against Anthropic forging a new deal with the Pentagon, driven by the company's unyielding AI safety restrictions clashing with Department of Defense demands for unrestricted access to Claude models. In July 2025, Anthropic inked a $200 million prototyping contract for national security applications, but negotiations collapsed in early 2026 over prohibitions on mass domestic surveillance and autonomous weapons use. The Pentagon responded by designating Anthropic a supply chain risk in March, issuing memos to phase out its tech within 180 days. Anthropic's federal lawsuit challenging this failed at the appeals court on April 8, solidifying the rift and opening doors for rival AI firms, with no near-term catalysts for reconciliation amid ongoing litigation.
In February 2026, the Pentagon announced it would designate Anthropic as a national security supply chain risk after Anthropic refused to remove AI safety restrictions from its acceptable use policy. Donald Trump subsequently directed all federal agencies to cease using Anthropic's technologies, with a six-month phase-out period for agencies such as the Department of Defense which are actively using Anthropic's products.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic and the United States Department of Defense (DOD/Department of War) reach any commercial agreement to allow for the use of Claude or other Anthropic artificial intelligence models by DOD employees by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A commercial agreement between Anthropic and a broader set of the US government that grants usage of Anthropic AI models to DOD employees will count. Agreements or designations which allow Anthropic to offer its services to the DOD, but do not constitute an effective agreement for Anthropic to do so, however, will not count (e.g the inclusion of Anthropic on a Master Service Agreement or Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity contract would not count).
An official announcement of a qualifying agreement, made within this market’s timeframe, will count, regardless of whether or when the agreement actually goes into effect.
Official announcements that the previously agreed contract between Anthropic and the DOD will be fully or partially reinstated, or otherwise will continue without impediment, will count, so long as this includes extended use of Anthropic AI models by DOD employees beyond any designated phase-out period.
Continued use of Anthropic technologies by DOD employees without a qualifying agreement (e.g. during a 6 month phase-out period) will not count. A court ruling that the designation of Anthropic as a supply chain risk is unlawful will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless it is accompanied by a reinstatement of Anthropic's DOD contract or a new qualifying Anthropic-DOD agreement.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Anthropic and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic and the United States Department of Defense (DOD/Department of War) reach any commercial agreement to allow for the use of Claude or other Anthropic artificial intelligence models by DOD employees by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A commercial agreement between Anthropic and a broader set of the US government that grants usage of Anthropic AI models to DOD employees will count. Agreements or designations which allow Anthropic to offer its services to the DOD, but do not constitute an effective agreement for Anthropic to do so, however, will not count (e.g the inclusion of Anthropic on a Master Service Agreement or Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity contract would not count).
An official announcement of a qualifying agreement, made within this market’s timeframe, will count, regardless of whether or when the agreement actually goes into effect.
Official announcements that the previously agreed contract between Anthropic and the DOD will be fully or partially reinstated, or otherwise will continue without impediment, will count, so long as this includes extended use of Anthropic AI models by DOD employees beyond any designated phase-out period.
Continued use of Anthropic technologies by DOD employees without a qualifying agreement (e.g. during a 6 month phase-out period) will not count. A court ruling that the designation of Anthropic as a supply chain risk is unlawful will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless it is accompanied by a reinstatement of Anthropic's DOD contract or a new qualifying Anthropic-DOD agreement.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Anthropic and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$54,100終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 6, 2026, 1:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89.5% implied probability against Anthropic forging a new deal with the Pentagon, driven by the company's unyielding AI safety restrictions clashing with Department of Defense demands for unrestricted access to Claude models. In July 2025, Anthropic inked a $200 million prototyping contract for national security applications, but negotiations collapsed in early 2026 over prohibitions on mass domestic surveillance and autonomous weapons use. The Pentagon responded by designating Anthropic a supply chain risk in March, issuing memos to phase out its tech within 180 days. Anthropic's federal lawsuit challenging this failed at the appeals court on April 8, solidifying the rift and opening doors for rival AI firms, with no near-term catalysts for reconciliation amid ongoing litigation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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