Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 81% implied probability for Anthropic striking a deal with the Pentagon, reflecting the company's steadfast commitment to AI safety principles over direct military engagements. CEO Dario Amodei has repeatedly affirmed in recent interviews that Anthropic is not pursuing military contracts, prioritizing "constitutional AI" frameworks amid partnerships with Amazon and Google for cloud infrastructure rather than defense applications. While competitors like OpenAI secured a $200 million Pentagon prototype deal last month, Anthropic's differentiated stance—emphasizing responsible AI deployment—has quelled speculation, with no credible reports of negotiations emerging in the past 30 days. Key catalysts include potential U.S. national security policy shifts or Amodei's upcoming public statements that could sway sentiment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$40,597 Vol.
$40,597 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
はい
$40,597 Vol.
$40,597 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
In February 2026, the Pentagon announced it would designate Anthropic as a national security supply chain risk after Anthropic refused to remove AI safety restrictions from its acceptable use policy. Donald Trump subsequently directed all federal agencies to cease using Anthropic's technologies, with a six-month phase-out period for agencies such as the Department of Defense which are actively using Anthropic's products.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic and the United States Department of Defense (DOD/Department of War) reach any commercial agreement to allow for the use of Claude or other Anthropic artificial intelligence models by DOD employees by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A commercial agreement between Anthropic and a broader set of the US government that grants usage of Anthropic AI models to DOD employees will count. Agreements or designations which allow Anthropic to offer its services to the DOD, but do not constitute an effective agreement for Anthropic to do so, however, will not count (e.g the inclusion of Anthropic on a Master Service Agreement or Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity contract would not count).
An official announcement of a qualifying agreement, made within this market’s timeframe, will count, regardless of whether or when the agreement actually goes into effect.
Official announcements that the previously agreed contract between Anthropic and the DOD will be fully or partially reinstated, or otherwise will continue without impediment, will count, so long as this includes extended use of Anthropic AI models by DOD employees beyond any designated phase-out period.
Continued use of Anthropic technologies by DOD employees without a qualifying agreement (e.g. during a 6 month phase-out period) will not count. A court ruling that the designation of Anthropic as a supply chain risk is unlawful will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless it is accompanied by a reinstatement of Anthropic's DOD contract or a new qualifying Anthropic-DOD agreement.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Anthropic and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 81% implied probability for Anthropic striking a deal with the Pentagon, reflecting the company's steadfast commitment to AI safety principles over direct military engagements. CEO Dario Amodei has repeatedly affirmed in recent interviews that Anthropic is not pursuing military contracts, prioritizing "constitutional AI" frameworks amid partnerships with Amazon and Google for cloud infrastructure rather than defense applications. While competitors like OpenAI secured a $200 million Pentagon prototype deal last month, Anthropic's differentiated stance—emphasizing responsible AI deployment—has quelled speculation, with no credible reports of negotiations emerging in the past 30 days. Key catalysts include potential U.S. national security policy shifts or Amodei's upcoming public statements that could sway sentiment.
In February 2026, the Pentagon announced it would designate Anthropic as a national security supply chain risk after Anthropic refused to remove AI safety restrictions from its acceptable use policy. Donald Trump subsequently directed all federal agencies to cease using Anthropic's technologies, with a six-month phase-out period for agencies such as the Department of Defense which are actively using Anthropic's products.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic and the United States Department of Defense (DOD/Department of War) reach any commercial agreement to allow for the use of Claude or other Anthropic artificial intelligence models by DOD employees by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A commercial agreement between Anthropic and a broader set of the US government that grants usage of Anthropic AI models to DOD employees will count. Agreements or designations which allow Anthropic to offer its services to the DOD, but do not constitute an effective agreement for Anthropic to do so, however, will not count (e.g the inclusion of Anthropic on a Master Service Agreement or Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity contract would not count).
An official announcement of a qualifying agreement, made within this market’s timeframe, will count, regardless of whether or when the agreement actually goes into effect.
Official announcements that the previously agreed contract between Anthropic and the DOD will be fully or partially reinstated, or otherwise will continue without impediment, will count, so long as this includes extended use of Anthropic AI models by DOD employees beyond any designated phase-out period.
Continued use of Anthropic technologies by DOD employees without a qualifying agreement (e.g. during a 6 month phase-out period) will not count. A court ruling that the designation of Anthropic as a supply chain risk is unlawful will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless it is accompanied by a reinstatement of Anthropic's DOD contract or a new qualifying Anthropic-DOD agreement.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Anthropic and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic and the United States Department of Defense (DOD/Department of War) reach any commercial agreement to allow for the use of Claude or other Anthropic artificial intelligence models by DOD employees by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A commercial agreement between Anthropic and a broader set of the US government that grants usage of Anthropic AI models to DOD employees will count. Agreements or designations which allow Anthropic to offer its services to the DOD, but do not constitute an effective agreement for Anthropic to do so, however, will not count (e.g the inclusion of Anthropic on a Master Service Agreement or Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity contract would not count).
An official announcement of a qualifying agreement, made within this market’s timeframe, will count, regardless of whether or when the agreement actually goes into effect.
Official announcements that the previously agreed contract between Anthropic and the DOD will be fully or partially reinstated, or otherwise will continue without impediment, will count, so long as this includes extended use of Anthropic AI models by DOD employees beyond any designated phase-out period.
Continued use of Anthropic technologies by DOD employees without a qualifying agreement (e.g. during a 6 month phase-out period) will not count. A court ruling that the designation of Anthropic as a supply chain risk is unlawful will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless it is accompanied by a reinstatement of Anthropic's DOD contract or a new qualifying Anthropic-DOD agreement.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Anthropic and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 6, 2026, 1:33 PM ET
音量
$40,597終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 6, 2026, 1:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...In February 2026, the Pentagon announced it would designate Anthropic as a national security supply chain risk after Anthropic refused to remove AI safety restrictions from its acceptable use policy. Donald Trump subsequently directed all federal agencies to cease using Anthropic's technologies, with a six-month phase-out period for agencies such as the Department of Defense which are actively using Anthropic's products.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic and the United States Department of Defense (DOD/Department of War) reach any commercial agreement to allow for the use of Claude or other Anthropic artificial intelligence models by DOD employees by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A commercial agreement between Anthropic and a broader set of the US government that grants usage of Anthropic AI models to DOD employees will count. Agreements or designations which allow Anthropic to offer its services to the DOD, but do not constitute an effective agreement for Anthropic to do so, however, will not count (e.g the inclusion of Anthropic on a Master Service Agreement or Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity contract would not count).
An official announcement of a qualifying agreement, made within this market’s timeframe, will count, regardless of whether or when the agreement actually goes into effect.
Official announcements that the previously agreed contract between Anthropic and the DOD will be fully or partially reinstated, or otherwise will continue without impediment, will count, so long as this includes extended use of Anthropic AI models by DOD employees beyond any designated phase-out period.
Continued use of Anthropic technologies by DOD employees without a qualifying agreement (e.g. during a 6 month phase-out period) will not count. A court ruling that the designation of Anthropic as a supply chain risk is unlawful will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless it is accompanied by a reinstatement of Anthropic's DOD contract or a new qualifying Anthropic-DOD agreement.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Anthropic and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 81% implied probability for Anthropic striking a deal with the Pentagon, reflecting the company's steadfast commitment to AI safety principles over direct military engagements. CEO Dario Amodei has repeatedly affirmed in recent interviews that Anthropic is not pursuing military contracts, prioritizing "constitutional AI" frameworks amid partnerships with Amazon and Google for cloud infrastructure rather than defense applications. While competitors like OpenAI secured a $200 million Pentagon prototype deal last month, Anthropic's differentiated stance—emphasizing responsible AI deployment—has quelled speculation, with no credible reports of negotiations emerging in the past 30 days. Key catalysts include potential U.S. national security policy shifts or Amodei's upcoming public statements that could sway sentiment.
In February 2026, the Pentagon announced it would designate Anthropic as a national security supply chain risk after Anthropic refused to remove AI safety restrictions from its acceptable use policy. Donald Trump subsequently directed all federal agencies to cease using Anthropic's technologies, with a six-month phase-out period for agencies such as the Department of Defense which are actively using Anthropic's products.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic and the United States Department of Defense (DOD/Department of War) reach any commercial agreement to allow for the use of Claude or other Anthropic artificial intelligence models by DOD employees by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A commercial agreement between Anthropic and a broader set of the US government that grants usage of Anthropic AI models to DOD employees will count. Agreements or designations which allow Anthropic to offer its services to the DOD, but do not constitute an effective agreement for Anthropic to do so, however, will not count (e.g the inclusion of Anthropic on a Master Service Agreement or Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity contract would not count).
An official announcement of a qualifying agreement, made within this market’s timeframe, will count, regardless of whether or when the agreement actually goes into effect.
Official announcements that the previously agreed contract between Anthropic and the DOD will be fully or partially reinstated, or otherwise will continue without impediment, will count, so long as this includes extended use of Anthropic AI models by DOD employees beyond any designated phase-out period.
Continued use of Anthropic technologies by DOD employees without a qualifying agreement (e.g. during a 6 month phase-out period) will not count. A court ruling that the designation of Anthropic as a supply chain risk is unlawful will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless it is accompanied by a reinstatement of Anthropic's DOD contract or a new qualifying Anthropic-DOD agreement.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Anthropic and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic and the United States Department of Defense (DOD/Department of War) reach any commercial agreement to allow for the use of Claude or other Anthropic artificial intelligence models by DOD employees by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A commercial agreement between Anthropic and a broader set of the US government that grants usage of Anthropic AI models to DOD employees will count. Agreements or designations which allow Anthropic to offer its services to the DOD, but do not constitute an effective agreement for Anthropic to do so, however, will not count (e.g the inclusion of Anthropic on a Master Service Agreement or Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity contract would not count).
An official announcement of a qualifying agreement, made within this market’s timeframe, will count, regardless of whether or when the agreement actually goes into effect.
Official announcements that the previously agreed contract between Anthropic and the DOD will be fully or partially reinstated, or otherwise will continue without impediment, will count, so long as this includes extended use of Anthropic AI models by DOD employees beyond any designated phase-out period.
Continued use of Anthropic technologies by DOD employees without a qualifying agreement (e.g. during a 6 month phase-out period) will not count. A court ruling that the designation of Anthropic as a supply chain risk is unlawful will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless it is accompanied by a reinstatement of Anthropic's DOD contract or a new qualifying Anthropic-DOD agreement.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Anthropic and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$40,597終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 6, 2026, 1:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 81% implied probability for Anthropic striking a deal with the Pentagon, reflecting the company's steadfast commitment to AI safety principles over direct military engagements. CEO Dario Amodei has repeatedly affirmed in recent interviews that Anthropic is not pursuing military contracts, prioritizing "constitutional AI" frameworks amid partnerships with Amazon and Google for cloud infrastructure rather than defense applications. While competitors like OpenAI secured a $200 million Pentagon prototype deal last month, Anthropic's differentiated stance—emphasizing responsible AI deployment—has quelled speculation, with no credible reports of negotiations emerging in the past 30 days. Key catalysts include potential U.S. national security policy shifts or Amodei's upcoming public statements that could sway sentiment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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