Tesla's Q1 2026 vehicle deliveries of 358,000—missing consensus estimates by 7,000-12,000 units amid softening demand and incentive expirations—have left traders evenly split on Q2 outcomes, with <300k and 450k-475k bins both at 49% implied probability. Production outpaced deliveries by 50,000 vehicles, positioning Q2 for potential inventory clearance boosts alongside Cybertruck ramp-up (111% YoY Q1 growth) and China sales surging 23.5% YoY, reclaiming BEV leadership over BYD. Yet, competitive pressures from affordable Chinese EVs and U.S./Europe slowdowns fuel downside risks. Key watch: April 22 earnings call for Q2 guidance and full-year outlook amid modest 1.69 million annual consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日375k–400k 38%
325k–350k 28%
350k–375k 25%
400k–425k 21%
新規
新規
2026/06/30
<300k
14%
300k–325k
12%
325k–350k
20%
350k–375k
25%
375k–400k
38%
400k–425k
21%
425k–450k
18%
450k–475k
19%
475k+
16%
375k–400k 38%
325k–350k 28%
350k–375k 25%
400k–425k 21%
新規
新規
2026/06/30
<300k
$0 Vol.
14%
300k–325k
$0 Vol.
12%
325k–350k
$4 Vol.
20%
350k–375k
$0 Vol.
25%
375k–400k
$0 Vol.
38%
400k–425k
$0 Vol.
21%
425k–450k
$2 Vol.
18%
450k–475k
$0 Vol.
19%
475k+
$0 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Tesla's Q1 2026 vehicle deliveries of 358,000—missing consensus estimates by 7,000-12,000 units amid softening demand and incentive expirations—have left traders evenly split on Q2 outcomes, with <300k and 450k-475k bins both at 49% implied probability. Production outpaced deliveries by 50,000 vehicles, positioning Q2 for potential inventory clearance boosts alongside Cybertruck ramp-up (111% YoY Q1 growth) and China sales surging 23.5% YoY, reclaiming BEV leadership over BYD. Yet, competitive pressures from affordable Chinese EVs and U.S./Europe slowdowns fuel downside risks. Key watch: April 22 earnings call for Q2 guidance and full-year outlook amid modest 1.69 million annual consensus.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
マーケット開始日： Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ET
音量
$6終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Tesla's Q1 2026 vehicle deliveries of 358,000—missing consensus estimates by 7,000-12,000 units amid softening demand and incentive expirations—have left traders evenly split on Q2 outcomes, with <300k and 450k-475k bins both at 49% implied probability. Production outpaced deliveries by 50,000 vehicles, positioning Q2 for potential inventory clearance boosts alongside Cybertruck ramp-up (111% YoY Q1 growth) and China sales surging 23.5% YoY, reclaiming BEV leadership over BYD. Yet, competitive pressures from affordable Chinese EVs and U.S./Europe slowdowns fuel downside risks. Key watch: April 22 earnings call for Q2 guidance and full-year outlook amid modest 1.69 million annual consensus.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
音量
$6終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tesla's Q1 2026 vehicle deliveries of 358,000—missing consensus estimates by 7,000-12,000 units amid softening demand and incentive expirations—have left traders evenly split on Q2 outcomes, with <300k and 450k-475k bins both at 49% implied probability. Production outpaced deliveries by 50,000 vehicles, positioning Q2 for potential inventory clearance boosts alongside Cybertruck ramp-up (111% YoY Q1 growth) and China sales surging 23.5% YoY, reclaiming BEV leadership over BYD. Yet, competitive pressures from affordable Chinese EVs and U.S./Europe slowdowns fuel downside risks. Key watch: April 22 earnings call for Q2 guidance and full-year outlook amid modest 1.69 million annual consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問