Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in Baidu at a 100% implied probability as the best Chinese AI company by end of April 2026, driven by the April 30 LMArena leaderboard update crowning its ERNIE 5.1 Preview as the top Chinese large language model with an Elo score of 1476—outpacing rivals like DeepSeek-V4-Pro despite the latter's recent launch. This edge stems from superior performance in legal, government, math, and business benchmarks, achieved with just 6% of typical compute and fewer parameters, underscoring Baidu's efficiency gains amid intensifying domestic competition from Alibaba's Qwen series and Xiaomi's MiMo agents. While resolution is imminent via Chatbot Arena rankings, a dramatic last-hour leaderboard reversal from a surprise model drop by ByteDance or Moonshot AI could theoretically challenge it, though traders see negligible risk given the fresh data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日最高の中国のAI企業は4月末ですか？
最高の中国のAI企業は4月末ですか？
バイドゥ 100.0%
アリババ <1%
美団（Meituan） <1%
バイトダンス <1%
$583,017 Vol.
$583,017 Vol.
2026/04/30
アリババ
いいえ
美団（Meituan）
いいえ
バイトダンス
いいえ
DeepSeek
いいえ
バイドゥ
はい
Z.ai
いいえ
ムーンショット
いいえ
小米
いいえ
バイドゥ 100.0%
アリババ <1%
美団（Meituan） <1%
バイトダンス <1%
$583,017 Vol.
$583,017 Vol.
2026/04/30
アリババ
$128,587 Vol.
いいえ
美団（Meituan）
$15,387 Vol.
いいえ
バイトダンス
$41,318 Vol.
いいえ
DeepSeek
$130,741 Vol.
いいえ
バイドゥ
$67,791 Vol.
はい
Z.ai
$87,163 Vol.
いいえ
ムーンショット
$52,977 Vol.
いいえ
小米
$59,053 Vol.
いいえ
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in Baidu at a 100% implied probability as the best Chinese AI company by end of April 2026, driven by the April 30 LMArena leaderboard update crowning its ERNIE 5.1 Preview as the top Chinese large language model with an Elo score of 1476—outpacing rivals like DeepSeek-V4-Pro despite the latter's recent launch. This edge stems from superior performance in legal, government, math, and business benchmarks, achieved with just 6% of typical compute and fewer parameters, underscoring Baidu's efficiency gains amid intensifying domestic competition from Alibaba's Qwen series and Xiaomi's MiMo agents. While resolution is imminent via Chatbot Arena rankings, a dramatic last-hour leaderboard reversal from a surprise model drop by ByteDance or Moonshot AI could theoretically challenge it, though traders see negligible risk given the fresh data.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Apr 2, 2026, 5:56 PM ET
音量
$583,017終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in Baidu at a 100% implied probability as the best Chinese AI company by end of April 2026, driven by the April 30 LMArena leaderboard update crowning its ERNIE 5.1 Preview as the top Chinese large language model with an Elo score of 1476—outpacing rivals like DeepSeek-V4-Pro despite the latter's recent launch. This edge stems from superior performance in legal, government, math, and business benchmarks, achieved with just 6% of typical compute and fewer parameters, underscoring Baidu's efficiency gains amid intensifying domestic competition from Alibaba's Qwen series and Xiaomi's MiMo agents. While resolution is imminent via Chatbot Arena rankings, a dramatic last-hour leaderboard reversal from a surprise model drop by ByteDance or Moonshot AI could theoretically challenge it, though traders see negligible risk given the fresh data.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$583,017終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in Baidu at a 100% implied probability as the best Chinese AI company by end of April 2026, driven by the April 30 LMArena leaderboard update crowning its ERNIE 5.1 Preview as the top Chinese large language model with an Elo score of 1476—outpacing rivals like DeepSeek-V4-Pro despite the latter's recent launch. This edge stems from superior performance in legal, government, math, and business benchmarks, achieved with just 6% of typical compute and fewer parameters, underscoring Baidu's efficiency gains amid intensifying domestic competition from Alibaba's Qwen series and Xiaomi's MiMo agents. While resolution is imminent via Chatbot Arena rankings, a dramatic last-hour leaderboard reversal from a surprise model drop by ByteDance or Moonshot AI could theoretically challenge it, though traders see negligible risk given the fresh data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問