Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 86.5% implied probability that a Chinese company will claim the world's best AI model—typically measured by LMSYS Chatbot Arena leadership—by December 31, 2026, driven by sustained U.S. frontier advantages from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google despite China's rapid catch-up. Recent surges like Alibaba's Qwen matching Claude Opus 4.6 speed and cost, MiniMax's self-improving M2.7 rivaling GPT-5.4 on coding, Xiaomi's MiMo topping Asian benchmarks, and HappyHorse dominating video generation have narrowed the LMSYS gap to just 2.7–3.9%, per Stanford's 2026 AI Index. However, U.S. closed-source models lead by 7–9 months equivalent, bolstered by joint efforts from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google to curb Chinese model distillation. Key catalysts include looming U.S. releases like Gemini 3.0 previews and compute export curbs hindering China's scaling, though unexpected open-weight breakthroughs could shift odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 86.5% implied probability that a Chinese company will claim the world's best AI model—typically measured by LMSYS Chatbot Arena leadership—by December 31, 2026, driven by sustained U.S. frontier advantages from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google despite China's rapid catch-up. Recent surges like Alibaba's Qwen matching Claude Opus 4.6 speed and cost, MiniMax's self-improving M2.7 rivaling GPT-5.4 on coding, Xiaomi's MiMo topping Asian benchmarks, and HappyHorse dominating video generation have narrowed the LMSYS gap to just 2.7–3.9%, per Stanford's 2026 AI Index. However, U.S. closed-source models lead by 7–9 months equivalent, bolstered by joint efforts from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google to curb Chinese model distillation. Key catalysts include looming U.S. releases like Gemini 3.0 previews and compute export curbs hindering China's scaling, though unexpected open-weight breakthroughs could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Apr 2, 2026, 5:52 PM ET
音量
$2,469終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 86.5% implied probability that a Chinese company will claim the world's best AI model—typically measured by LMSYS Chatbot Arena leadership—by December 31, 2026, driven by sustained U.S. frontier advantages from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google despite China's rapid catch-up. Recent surges like Alibaba's Qwen matching Claude Opus 4.6 speed and cost, MiniMax's self-improving M2.7 rivaling GPT-5.4 on coding, Xiaomi's MiMo topping Asian benchmarks, and HappyHorse dominating video generation have narrowed the LMSYS gap to just 2.7–3.9%, per Stanford's 2026 AI Index. However, U.S. closed-source models lead by 7–9 months equivalent, bolstered by joint efforts from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google to curb Chinese model distillation. Key catalysts include looming U.S. releases like Gemini 3.0 previews and compute export curbs hindering China's scaling, though unexpected open-weight breakthroughs could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$2,469終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 86.5% implied probability that a Chinese company will claim the world's best AI model—typically measured by LMSYS Chatbot Arena leadership—by December 31, 2026, driven by sustained U.S. frontier advantages from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google despite China's rapid catch-up. Recent surges like Alibaba's Qwen matching Claude Opus 4.6 speed and cost, MiniMax's self-improving M2.7 rivaling GPT-5.4 on coding, Xiaomi's MiMo topping Asian benchmarks, and HappyHorse dominating video generation have narrowed the LMSYS gap to just 2.7–3.9%, per Stanford's 2026 AI Index. However, U.S. closed-source models lead by 7–9 months equivalent, bolstered by joint efforts from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google to curb Chinese model distillation. Key catalysts include looming U.S. releases like Gemini 3.0 previews and compute export curbs hindering China's scaling, though unexpected open-weight breakthroughs could shift odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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