Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking model holds the #2 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) with a 1502 Elo rating, just one point behind its sibling Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking at 1503, driving near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability as of the latest 23-hour update. This dominance stems from Anthropic's recent Claude 4.x series releases in mid-April, excelling in style-neutral evaluations of reasoning, instruction-following, and creative tasks amid a competitive landscape featuring Google Gemini and OpenAI GPT variants. With the market resolving at month's end today, minimal battle volume remains to shift rankings significantly. Realistic challenges include a last-minute frontrunner model release—such as an OpenAI or xAI update—or anomalous vote surges, though leaderboard stability and historical inertia favor the status quo.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Anthropic 100.0%
xAI <1%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
$82,045 Vol.
$82,045 Vol.
2026/04/30
xAI
いいえ
いいえ
OpenAI
いいえ
ByteDance
いいえ
メイトゥアン
いいえ
Anthropic
はい
アリババ
いいえ
Amazon
いいえ
Baidu
いいえ
ムーンショット
いいえ
DeepSeek
いいえ
Z.ai
いいえ
Mistral
いいえ
Meta
いいえ
マイクロソフト
いいえ
Anthropic 100.0%
xAI <1%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
$82,045 Vol.
$82,045 Vol.
2026/04/30
xAI
$3,023 Vol.
いいえ
$5,473 Vol.
いいえ
OpenAI
$10,528 Vol.
いいえ
ByteDance
$6,338 Vol.
いいえ
メイトゥアン
$3,483 Vol.
いいえ
Anthropic
$31,534 Vol.
はい
アリババ
$3,198 Vol.
いいえ
Amazon
$1,865 Vol.
いいえ
Baidu
$2,040 Vol.
いいえ
ムーンショット
$1,943 Vol.
いいえ
DeepSeek
$4,417 Vol.
いいえ
Z.ai
$2,245 Vol.
いいえ
Mistral
$1,948 Vol.
いいえ
Meta
$3,793 Vol.
いいえ
マイクロソフト
$217 Vol.
いいえ
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking model holds the #2 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) with a 1502 Elo rating, just one point behind its sibling Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking at 1503, driving near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability as of the latest 23-hour update. This dominance stems from Anthropic's recent Claude 4.x series releases in mid-April, excelling in style-neutral evaluations of reasoning, instruction-following, and creative tasks amid a competitive landscape featuring Google Gemini and OpenAI GPT variants. With the market resolving at month's end today, minimal battle volume remains to shift rankings significantly. Realistic challenges include a last-minute frontrunner model release—such as an OpenAI or xAI update—or anomalous vote surges, though leaderboard stability and historical inertia favor the status quo.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Mar 20, 2026, 4:40 PM ET
音量
$82,045終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 4:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: はい
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: はい
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking model holds the #2 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) with a 1502 Elo rating, just one point behind its sibling Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking at 1503, driving near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability as of the latest 23-hour update. This dominance stems from Anthropic's recent Claude 4.x series releases in mid-April, excelling in style-neutral evaluations of reasoning, instruction-following, and creative tasks amid a competitive landscape featuring Google Gemini and OpenAI GPT variants. With the market resolving at month's end today, minimal battle volume remains to shift rankings significantly. Realistic challenges include a last-minute frontrunner model release—such as an OpenAI or xAI update—or anomalous vote surges, though leaderboard stability and historical inertia favor the status quo.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$82,045終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 20, 2026, 4:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: はい
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: はい
Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking model holds the #2 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) with a 1502 Elo rating, just one point behind its sibling Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking at 1503, driving near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability as of the latest 23-hour update. This dominance stems from Anthropic's recent Claude 4.x series releases in mid-April, excelling in style-neutral evaluations of reasoning, instruction-following, and creative tasks amid a competitive landscape featuring Google Gemini and OpenAI GPT variants. With the market resolving at month's end today, minimal battle volume remains to shift rankings significantly. Realistic challenges include a last-minute frontrunner model release—such as an OpenAI or xAI update—or anomalous vote surges, though leaderboard stability and historical inertia favor the status quo.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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