OpenAI's trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight positioning around a potential IPO closing market cap, with 750B–1T implied probability at 37% buoyed by the firm's record $122 billion funding round closed March 31, 2026, at an $852 billion post-money valuation—led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank—signaling robust investor appetite amid projected $25 billion 2026 revenue. However, the "No IPO by December 31, 2027" outcome at 31% gains traction from high cash burn rates nearing $19 billion annually, uncertain profitability path into 2030, and valuation multiples (~28x forward sales) exceeding Nvidia's 12x benchmark. Intensifying competition from Anthropic and Google DeepMind, plus regulatory scrutiny, keeps lower brackets viable; watch Q4 2026 S-1 filing rumors and enterprise adoption metrics for resolution swings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日7,500億～1兆 36%
2027年12月31日までに上場しない 22%
1兆～1.25兆 18%
1.5兆ドル以上 16%
$13,692 Vol.
$13,692 Vol.
2027/12/31
5,000億未満
16%
5,000億〜7,500億ドル
-
7,500億～1兆
36%
1兆～1.25兆
18%
1.25兆〜1.5兆
16%
1.5兆ドル以上
16%
2027年12月31日までに上場しない
31%
7,500億～1兆 36%
2027年12月31日までに上場しない 22%
1兆～1.25兆 18%
1.5兆ドル以上 16%
$13,692 Vol.
$13,692 Vol.
2027/12/31
5,000億未満
$0 Vol.
16%
5,000億〜7,500億ドル
$0 Vol.
-
7,500億～1兆
$54 Vol.
36%
1兆～1.25兆
$2,790 Vol.
18%
1.25兆〜1.5兆
$105 Vol.
16%
1.5兆ドル以上
$0 Vol.
16%
2027年12月31日までに上場しない
$10,742 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI's trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight positioning around a potential IPO closing market cap, with 750B–1T implied probability at 37% buoyed by the firm's record $122 billion funding round closed March 31, 2026, at an $852 billion post-money valuation—led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank—signaling robust investor appetite amid projected $25 billion 2026 revenue. However, the "No IPO by December 31, 2027" outcome at 31% gains traction from high cash burn rates nearing $19 billion annually, uncertain profitability path into 2030, and valuation multiples (~28x forward sales) exceeding Nvidia's 12x benchmark. Intensifying competition from Anthropic and Google DeepMind, plus regulatory scrutiny, keeps lower brackets viable; watch Q4 2026 S-1 filing rumors and enterprise adoption metrics for resolution swings.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
マーケット開始日： Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
音量
$13,692終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI's trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight positioning around a potential IPO closing market cap, with 750B–1T implied probability at 37% buoyed by the firm's record $122 billion funding round closed March 31, 2026, at an $852 billion post-money valuation—led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank—signaling robust investor appetite amid projected $25 billion 2026 revenue. However, the "No IPO by December 31, 2027" outcome at 31% gains traction from high cash burn rates nearing $19 billion annually, uncertain profitability path into 2030, and valuation multiples (~28x forward sales) exceeding Nvidia's 12x benchmark. Intensifying competition from Anthropic and Google DeepMind, plus regulatory scrutiny, keeps lower brackets viable; watch Q4 2026 S-1 filing rumors and enterprise adoption metrics for resolution swings.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
音量
$13,692終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI's trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight positioning around a potential IPO closing market cap, with 750B–1T implied probability at 37% buoyed by the firm's record $122 billion funding round closed March 31, 2026, at an $852 billion post-money valuation—led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank—signaling robust investor appetite amid projected $25 billion 2026 revenue. However, the "No IPO by December 31, 2027" outcome at 31% gains traction from high cash burn rates nearing $19 billion annually, uncertain profitability path into 2030, and valuation multiples (~28x forward sales) exceeding Nvidia's 12x benchmark. Intensifying competition from Anthropic and Google DeepMind, plus regulatory scrutiny, keeps lower brackets viable; watch Q4 2026 S-1 filing rumors and enterprise adoption metrics for resolution swings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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