Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability against OpenAI achieving a $1 trillion-plus IPO valuation before 2027, driven by its latest $122 billion funding round closing March 31 at just an $852 billion valuation despite $25 billion annualized revenue. Massive cash burn exceeding $19 billion annually, projected profitability no earlier than 2030, and setbacks like Sora cancellation, Disney deal fallout, and multiple lawsuits have tempered enthusiasm, even as the company opens shares to retail investors and hires investor relations talent ahead of a potential late-2026 listing. Competition from Anthropic's faster profitability path and regulatory scrutiny on AI labs further cap upside, with key catalysts including S-1 filing or Q2 revenue updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$242,568 Vol.
$242,568 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$242,568 Vol.
$242,568 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability against OpenAI achieving a $1 trillion-plus IPO valuation before 2027, driven by its latest $122 billion funding round closing March 31 at just an $852 billion valuation despite $25 billion annualized revenue. Massive cash burn exceeding $19 billion annually, projected profitability no earlier than 2030, and setbacks like Sora cancellation, Disney deal fallout, and multiple lawsuits have tempered enthusiasm, even as the company opens shares to retail investors and hires investor relations talent ahead of a potential late-2026 listing. Competition from Anthropic's faster profitability path and regulatory scrutiny on AI labs further cap upside, with key catalysts including S-1 filing or Q2 revenue updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ET
音量
$242,568終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability against OpenAI achieving a $1 trillion-plus IPO valuation before 2027, driven by its latest $122 billion funding round closing March 31 at just an $852 billion valuation despite $25 billion annualized revenue. Massive cash burn exceeding $19 billion annually, projected profitability no earlier than 2030, and setbacks like Sora cancellation, Disney deal fallout, and multiple lawsuits have tempered enthusiasm, even as the company opens shares to retail investors and hires investor relations talent ahead of a potential late-2026 listing. Competition from Anthropic's faster profitability path and regulatory scrutiny on AI labs further cap upside, with key catalysts including S-1 filing or Q2 revenue updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
音量
$242,568終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability against OpenAI achieving a $1 trillion-plus IPO valuation before 2027, driven by its latest $122 billion funding round closing March 31 at just an $852 billion valuation despite $25 billion annualized revenue. Massive cash burn exceeding $19 billion annually, projected profitability no earlier than 2030, and setbacks like Sora cancellation, Disney deal fallout, and multiple lawsuits have tempered enthusiasm, even as the company opens shares to retail investors and hires investor relations talent ahead of a potential late-2026 listing. Competition from Anthropic's faster profitability path and regulatory scrutiny on AI labs further cap upside, with key catalysts including S-1 filing or Q2 revenue updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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