Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 64.5% implied probability of IPOing before OpenAI, driven by recent reports of the Claude AI developer targeting an October 2026 listing with bankers pitching a $60 billion-plus raise, bolstered by a completed employee tender offer and narrowed revenue gap versus its rival—from $6 billion to $1 billion annualized run rate disparity at 2025's start. OpenAI faces headwinds from internal rifts, with CFO Sarah Friar flagging organizational unreadiness and massive compute spending risks for CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 2026 push, alongside fresh investor scrutiny of its $852 billion valuation. Key catalysts ahead include S-1 filings and regulatory reviews, with both AI labs racing toward potentially record-breaking public debuts by year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Anthropic
$52,482 Vol.
$52,482 Vol.
2027/12/31
Anthropic
$52,482 Vol.
$52,482 Vol.
2027/12/31
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 64.5% implied probability of IPOing before OpenAI, driven by recent reports of the Claude AI developer targeting an October 2026 listing with bankers pitching a $60 billion-plus raise, bolstered by a completed employee tender offer and narrowed revenue gap versus its rival—from $6 billion to $1 billion annualized run rate disparity at 2025's start. OpenAI faces headwinds from internal rifts, with CFO Sarah Friar flagging organizational unreadiness and massive compute spending risks for CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 2026 push, alongside fresh investor scrutiny of its $852 billion valuation. Key catalysts ahead include S-1 filings and regulatory reviews, with both AI labs racing toward potentially record-breaking public debuts by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
音量
$52,482終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 64.5% implied probability of IPOing before OpenAI, driven by recent reports of the Claude AI developer targeting an October 2026 listing with bankers pitching a $60 billion-plus raise, bolstered by a completed employee tender offer and narrowed revenue gap versus its rival—from $6 billion to $1 billion annualized run rate disparity at 2025's start. OpenAI faces headwinds from internal rifts, with CFO Sarah Friar flagging organizational unreadiness and massive compute spending risks for CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 2026 push, alongside fresh investor scrutiny of its $852 billion valuation. Key catalysts ahead include S-1 filings and regulatory reviews, with both AI labs racing toward potentially record-breaking public debuts by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$52,482終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 64.5% implied probability of IPOing before OpenAI, driven by recent reports of the Claude AI developer targeting an October 2026 listing with bankers pitching a $60 billion-plus raise, bolstered by a completed employee tender offer and narrowed revenue gap versus its rival—from $6 billion to $1 billion annualized run rate disparity at 2025's start. OpenAI faces headwinds from internal rifts, with CFO Sarah Friar flagging organizational unreadiness and massive compute spending risks for CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 2026 push, alongside fresh investor scrutiny of its $852 billion valuation. Key catalysts ahead include S-1 filings and regulatory reviews, with both AI labs racing toward potentially record-breaking public debuts by year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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