Anthropic’s confidential IPO filing and targeted November 2026 listing at a potential $2 trillion-plus valuation represent the dominant factor behind the 97.2% market-implied odds against acquisition before 2027. The company recently closed a $65 billion Series H round at a $965 billion valuation, committed to hundreds of billions in non-cancelable compute leases with Google, Amazon, and others, and walked away from a reported $6 billion Decart AI deal after due diligence. These moves underscore leadership’s preference for independent scaling over a near-term sale. With only weeks remaining until year-end and no credible buyer interest reported, trader consensus views a last-minute deal as improbable, though an unexpected regulatory intervention or sudden strategic pivot could theoretically alter the trajectory.