Google's leading 72.5% implied probability reflects its recent Gemini model updates demonstrating advanced style control capabilities in image and text generation, outpacing competitors in benchmark tests and developer adoption. Multiple labs at 50% indicate ongoing uncertainty around feature rollouts before the September 30 deadline, with traders awaiting official announcements or capability demonstrations. Meta's 18% odds stem from steady Llama ecosystem progress, while OpenAI's low 6% positioning aligns with slower public iteration on controllable generation features amid internal priorities. Key upcoming catalysts include developer conferences and regulatory reviews that could shift sentiment on competitive AI capabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Google 73%
Meta 19%
OpenAI 5.1%
ムーンショット 4.9%
$105,001 Vol.
$105,001 Vol.

73%

Meta
19%

OpenAI
5%

ムーンショット
5%

Z.ai
1%

アリババ
1%

Baidu
1%

SpaceXAI
1%

ByteDance
<1%

アンソロピック
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Thinky
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

ミストラル
<1%

テンセント
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

Meituan
<1%

アマゾン
<1%

Nvidia
<1%

StepFun
<1%

マイクロソフト
<1%
Google 73%
Meta 19%
OpenAI 5.1%
ムーンショット 4.9%
$105,001 Vol.
$105,001 Vol.

73%

Meta
19%

OpenAI
5%

ムーンショット
5%

Z.ai
1%

アリババ
1%

Baidu
1%

SpaceXAI
1%

ByteDance
<1%

アンソロピック
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Thinky
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

ミストラル
<1%

テンセント
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

Meituan
<1%

アマゾン
<1%

Nvidia
<1%

StepFun
<1%

マイクロソフト
<1%
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Google's leading 72.5% implied probability reflects its recent Gemini model updates demonstrating advanced style control capabilities in image and text generation, outpacing competitors in benchmark tests and developer adoption. Multiple labs at 50% indicate ongoing uncertainty around feature rollouts before the September 30 deadline, with traders awaiting official announcements or capability demonstrations. Meta's 18% odds stem from steady Llama ecosystem progress, while OpenAI's low 6% positioning aligns with slower public iteration on controllable generation features amid internal priorities. Key upcoming catalysts include developer conferences and regulatory reviews that could shift sentiment on competitive AI capabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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