Moonshot AI’s July 2026 launch of Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter open-weights Mixture-of-Experts model with a 1-million-token context window, remains the company’s current flagship and sets the baseline for any successor. Trader sentiment around a Kimi K4 release reflects limited verifiable progress: the sole public signal is a late-July report that Moonshot is seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell GPUs for larger-scale training, amid ongoing U.S. export restrictions that already constrain its compute access. No official announcements, benchmarks, parameter counts, or API listings have appeared as of mid-October, and recent company activity centers on Kimi Code tooling updates rather than new base models. Competitive pressure from other Chinese labs and potential regulatory or supply-chain developments could shift timelines, but the absence of confirmed milestones keeps implied probabilities anchored to cautious near-term expectations.