Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward no AI model reaching 1550 Elo on the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026 (43.5% implied probability), just ahead of Anthropic at 34%, as frontier models like Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 (recently topping charts at around 1504 Elo) and challengers including Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (near 1520) and OpenAI's GPT-5.2 (peaking at 1545 in early March) have pushed scores into the high 1500s but stalled amid diminishing scaling returns and rigorous safety evaluations. Anthropic's edge stems from consistent leadership in user-preferred reasoning and versatility, while Google leverages massive compute resources and OpenAI excels in post-training optimizations; Chinese contenders like DeepSeek offer efficient alternatives. Key swing factors include April-May releases such as potential Claude 5 or Gemini 3.5, with vote accumulation rates critical for stable high-Elo breakthroughs.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日2026年に該当なし 44%
Anthropic 38%
Google 11%
OpenAI 7%

2026年に該当なし
44%

Anthropic
34%

11%

OpenAI
7%

xAI
2%

DeepSeek
2%

アリババ
2%

ミストラル
1%

Z.ai
<1%
2026年に該当なし 44%
Anthropic 38%
Google 11%
OpenAI 7%

2026年に該当なし
44%

Anthropic
34%

11%

OpenAI
7%

xAI
2%

DeepSeek
2%

アリババ
2%

ミストラル
1%

Z.ai
<1%
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
マーケット開始日: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward no AI model reaching 1550 Elo on the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026 (43.5% implied probability), just ahead of Anthropic at 34%, as frontier models like Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 (recently topping charts at around 1504 Elo) and challengers including Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (near 1520) and OpenAI's GPT-5.2 (peaking at 1545 in early March) have pushed scores into the high 1500s but stalled amid diminishing scaling returns and rigorous safety evaluations. Anthropic's edge stems from consistent leadership in user-preferred reasoning and versatility, while Google leverages massive compute resources and OpenAI excels in post-training optimizations; Chinese contenders like DeepSeek offer efficient alternatives. Key swing factors include April-May releases such as potential Claude 5 or Gemini 3.5, with vote accumulation rates critical for stable high-Elo breakthroughs.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問