Traders view reaching 1550 ELO on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026 as uncertain, with "None" edging out Anthropic at 43.5% to 35% implied probabilities, reflecting current top scores hovering around 1380-1390 for experimental large language models like Google's Gemini 2.0 Flash despite recent scaling advances. Anthropic leads contenders due to Claude 3.5 Sonnet's consistent benchmark strength and aggressive compute expansion via AWS partnerships, positioning it for potential Claude 4 leaps, while Google's DeepMind iterates rapidly but faces data bottlenecks. OpenAI lags post-o1 releases amid integration delays, and dark horses like DeepSeek gain from cost-efficient Chinese scaling. Key swing factors include post-training optimizations and compute availability ahead of mid-2026 model unveilings, underscoring prediction markets' wisdom-of-crowds skepticism on unprecedented Elo jumps.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日2026年に該当なし 44%
Anthropic 35%
Google 11%
OpenAI 7%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
2026年に該当なし
44%
Anthropic
35%
11%
OpenAI
7%
DeepSeek
3%
アリババ
2%
xAI
2%
ミストラル
1%
Z.ai
<1%
2026年に該当なし 44%
Anthropic 35%
Google 11%
OpenAI 7%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
2026年に該当なし
$0 Vol.
44%
Anthropic
$2,667 Vol.
35%
$3,866 Vol.
11%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
7%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
3%
アリババ
$0 Vol.
2%
xAI
$0 Vol.
2%
ミストラル
$0 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Traders view reaching 1550 ELO on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026 as uncertain, with "None" edging out Anthropic at 43.5% to 35% implied probabilities, reflecting current top scores hovering around 1380-1390 for experimental large language models like Google's Gemini 2.0 Flash despite recent scaling advances. Anthropic leads contenders due to Claude 3.5 Sonnet's consistent benchmark strength and aggressive compute expansion via AWS partnerships, positioning it for potential Claude 4 leaps, while Google's DeepMind iterates rapidly but faces data bottlenecks. OpenAI lags post-o1 releases amid integration delays, and dark horses like DeepSeek gain from cost-efficient Chinese scaling. Key swing factors include post-training optimizations and compute availability ahead of mid-2026 model unveilings, underscoring prediction markets' wisdom-of-crowds skepticism on unprecedented Elo jumps.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
マーケット開始日： Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
音量
$6,533終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Traders view reaching 1550 ELO on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026 as uncertain, with "None" edging out Anthropic at 43.5% to 35% implied probabilities, reflecting current top scores hovering around 1380-1390 for experimental large language models like Google's Gemini 2.0 Flash despite recent scaling advances. Anthropic leads contenders due to Claude 3.5 Sonnet's consistent benchmark strength and aggressive compute expansion via AWS partnerships, positioning it for potential Claude 4 leaps, while Google's DeepMind iterates rapidly but faces data bottlenecks. OpenAI lags post-o1 releases amid integration delays, and dark horses like DeepSeek gain from cost-efficient Chinese scaling. Key swing factors include post-training optimizations and compute availability ahead of mid-2026 model unveilings, underscoring prediction markets' wisdom-of-crowds skepticism on unprecedented Elo jumps.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
音量
$6,533終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders view reaching 1550 ELO on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026 as uncertain, with "None" edging out Anthropic at 43.5% to 35% implied probabilities, reflecting current top scores hovering around 1380-1390 for experimental large language models like Google's Gemini 2.0 Flash despite recent scaling advances. Anthropic leads contenders due to Claude 3.5 Sonnet's consistent benchmark strength and aggressive compute expansion via AWS partnerships, positioning it for potential Claude 4 leaps, while Google's DeepMind iterates rapidly but faces data bottlenecks. OpenAI lags post-o1 releases amid integration delays, and dark horses like DeepSeek gain from cost-efficient Chinese scaling. Key swing factors include post-training optimizations and compute availability ahead of mid-2026 model unveilings, underscoring prediction markets' wisdom-of-crowds skepticism on unprecedented Elo jumps.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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