Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7-thinking variant recently claimed the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Overall Arena Score of 1505 Elo, edging out its 4.6 predecessor at 1503 and dominating the top four positions, reflecting accelerated progress in reasoning and response quality from chain-of-thought enhancements. This surge follows Claude Opus 4.6's April launch, which shattered prior records at 1504, driven by superior performance in blind user battles across text, code, and expert categories. Meta's Muse-Spark trails closely at 1496, intensifying competition amid rapid iterations from OpenAI (GPT-5.x expected mid-year), Google DeepMind, and xAI. Traders eye scaling laws and compute investments as key to breaching higher thresholds by December 31, though historical delays in frontier model releases introduce uncertainty; Polymarket odds aggregate real-money bets capturing this crowd wisdom on timelines and capability jumps.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$83,295 Vol.
2026/12/31
↑ 1550
52%
↑ 1600
27%
↑ 1650
17%
↑ 1700
10%
$83,295 Vol.
↑ 1550
$25,582 Vol.
52%
↑ 1600
$13,058 Vol.
27%
↑ 1650
$6,016 Vol.
17%
↑ 1700
$4,884 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7-thinking variant recently claimed the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Overall Arena Score of 1505 Elo, edging out its 4.6 predecessor at 1503 and dominating the top four positions, reflecting accelerated progress in reasoning and response quality from chain-of-thought enhancements. This surge follows Claude Opus 4.6's April launch, which shattered prior records at 1504, driven by superior performance in blind user battles across text, code, and expert categories. Meta's Muse-Spark trails closely at 1496, intensifying competition amid rapid iterations from OpenAI (GPT-5.x expected mid-year), Google DeepMind, and xAI. Traders eye scaling laws and compute investments as key to breaching higher thresholds by December 31, though historical delays in frontier model releases introduce uncertainty; Polymarket odds aggregate real-money bets capturing this crowd wisdom on timelines and capability jumps.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
マーケット開始日： Jan 2, 2026, 1:29 PM ET
音量
$83,295終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7-thinking variant recently claimed the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Overall Arena Score of 1505 Elo, edging out its 4.6 predecessor at 1503 and dominating the top four positions, reflecting accelerated progress in reasoning and response quality from chain-of-thought enhancements. This surge follows Claude Opus 4.6's April launch, which shattered prior records at 1504, driven by superior performance in blind user battles across text, code, and expert categories. Meta's Muse-Spark trails closely at 1496, intensifying competition amid rapid iterations from OpenAI (GPT-5.x expected mid-year), Google DeepMind, and xAI. Traders eye scaling laws and compute investments as key to breaching higher thresholds by December 31, though historical delays in frontier model releases introduce uncertainty; Polymarket odds aggregate real-money bets capturing this crowd wisdom on timelines and capability jumps.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
音量
$83,295終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 2, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7-thinking variant recently claimed the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Overall Arena Score of 1505 Elo, edging out its 4.6 predecessor at 1503 and dominating the top four positions, reflecting accelerated progress in reasoning and response quality from chain-of-thought enhancements. This surge follows Claude Opus 4.6's April launch, which shattered prior records at 1504, driven by superior performance in blind user battles across text, code, and expert categories. Meta's Muse-Spark trails closely at 1496, intensifying competition amid rapid iterations from OpenAI (GPT-5.x expected mid-year), Google DeepMind, and xAI. Traders eye scaling laws and compute investments as key to breaching higher thresholds by December 31, though historical delays in frontier model releases introduce uncertainty; Polymarket odds aggregate real-money bets capturing this crowd wisdom on timelines and capability jumps.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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