Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet has captured the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard since its June 20 release, outperforming OpenAI's GPT-4o in coding, vision, and agentic tasks with an Elo score above 1280, driving trader consensus toward Anthropic as the frontrunner for holding the #1 AI model through June 30. This edge stems from its rapid benchmark dominance and lower hallucination rates, amid a competitive landscape where Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro lags slightly and Meta's Llama 3 405B trails in overall rankings. No major model launches from rivals are confirmed before resolution, though rumors of OpenAI updates or xAI's Grok-2 could spark shifts; traders eye last-minute announcements as key catalysts in this skin-in-the-game wisdom-of-crowds assessment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$1,165,378 Vol.

OpenAI
29%

xAI
16%

アリババ
8%

DeepSeek
7%

Meta
6%

Z.ai
5%

バイドゥ
4%

Mistral
4%

Nvidia
3%

Meituan
3%
$1,165,378 Vol.

OpenAI
29%

xAI
16%

アリババ
8%

DeepSeek
7%

Meta
6%

Z.ai
5%

バイドゥ
4%

Mistral
4%

Nvidia
3%

Meituan
3%
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
マーケット開始日: Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet has captured the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard since its June 20 release, outperforming OpenAI's GPT-4o in coding, vision, and agentic tasks with an Elo score above 1280, driving trader consensus toward Anthropic as the frontrunner for holding the #1 AI model through June 30. This edge stems from its rapid benchmark dominance and lower hallucination rates, amid a competitive landscape where Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro lags slightly and Meta's Llama 3 405B trails in overall rankings. No major model launches from rivals are confirmed before resolution, though rumors of OpenAI updates or xAI's Grok-2 could spark shifts; traders eye last-minute announcements as key catalysts in this skin-in-the-game wisdom-of-crowds assessment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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