Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet large language model, released June 20, has captured the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—surpassing OpenAI's GPT-4o in coding, math, vision, and overall Elo ratings—driving trader consensus toward its frontrunner status just days before the June 30 deadline. This shift reflects Anthropic's rapid iteration amid fierce competition from OpenAI's reasoning-focused o1-preview, Google's Gemini updates, and challengers like xAI's impending Grok-2. Key watchpoints include Meta's Llama 3.1 launch, rumored for late June with 405B parameters targeting frontier benchmarks, and any surprise announcements from leading AI labs, as leaderboard volatility remains high with real-time user evaluations. Prediction markets aggregate this skin-in-the-game sentiment, but model capabilities can evolve swiftly.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$1,136,935 Vol.

OpenAI
29%

xAI
16%

DeepSeek
8%

アリババ
7%

Meta
6%

Z.ai
5%

バイドゥ
4%

Mistral
3%

Nvidia
3%

Meituan
3%
$1,136,935 Vol.

OpenAI
29%

xAI
16%

DeepSeek
8%

アリババ
7%

Meta
6%

Z.ai
5%

バイドゥ
4%

Mistral
3%

Nvidia
3%

Meituan
3%
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
マーケット開始日: Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet large language model, released June 20, has captured the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—surpassing OpenAI's GPT-4o in coding, math, vision, and overall Elo ratings—driving trader consensus toward its frontrunner status just days before the June 30 deadline. This shift reflects Anthropic's rapid iteration amid fierce competition from OpenAI's reasoning-focused o1-preview, Google's Gemini updates, and challengers like xAI's impending Grok-2. Key watchpoints include Meta's Llama 3.1 launch, rumored for late June with 405B parameters targeting frontier benchmarks, and any surprise announcements from leading AI labs, as leaderboard volatility remains high with real-time user evaluations. Prediction markets aggregate this skin-in-the-game sentiment, but model capabilities can evolve swiftly.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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