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6月30日までにナンバーワンのAIモデルを持つのはどの企業ですか?

Market icon

6月30日までにナンバーワンのAIモデルを持つのはどの企業ですか?

$1,433,253 Vol.

2026/06/30
Polymarket

$1,433,253 Vol.

Polymarket
OpenAIは6月30日までにナンバーワンのAIモデルを持つでしょうか? icon

OpenAI

$356,289 Vol.

31%

xAIは6月30日までにNo.1のAIモデルを持つでしょうか? icon

xAI

$542,779 Vol.

13%

アリババは6月30日までにナンバーワンのAIモデルを持つか? icon

アリババ

$4,984 Vol.

8%

6月30日までにMetaはナンバーワンのAIモデルを持つことになるか? icon

Meta

$14,991 Vol.

7%

DeepSeekは6月30日までにナンバーワンのAIモデルを持つことができますか? icon

DeepSeek

$228,218 Vol.

7%

Z.aiは6月30日までにナンバーワンのAIモデルを持つでしょうか? icon

Z.ai

$4,638 Vol.

6%

Nvidiaは6月30日までにナンバーワンのAIモデルを持つでしょうか? icon

Nvidia

$5,948 Vol.

5%

Baiduは6月30日までにNo.1のAIモデルを持つでしょうか? icon

バイドゥ

$1,991 Vol.

4%

6月30日までにMistralがナンバーワンのAIモデルになるでしょうか? icon

Mistral

$12,694 Vol.

3%

Meituanは6月30日までにナンバーワンのAIモデルを持つでしょうか? icon

Meituan

$2,751 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's recent release of Claude Opus 4.7 on April 16 has propelled its models to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, with Claude Opus 4.6 (Thinking) securing the #1 Elo score around 1502 and dominating reasoning benchmarks, driving strong trader consensus for near-term leadership. This edge stems from superior self-correction and professional task performance amid fierce competition from OpenAI's versatile GPT-5.4 Pro suite and Google's fast-closing Gemini 3.1 Pro, while Meta's new Muse Spark aims to re-enter the frontier race. By June 30, market-implied odds hinge on impending model drops from these labs, potential developer conference reveals like Google I/O echoes, and benchmark shifts, underscoring prediction markets' skin-in-the-game wisdom on rapid AI scaling dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
音量
$1,433,253
終了日
2026/06/30
マーケット開始日
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's recent release of Claude Opus 4.7 on April 16 has propelled its models to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, with Claude Opus 4.6 (Thinking) securing the #1 Elo score around 1502 and dominating reasoning benchmarks, driving strong trader consensus for near-term leadership. This edge stems from superior self-correction and professional task performance amid fierce competition from OpenAI's versatile GPT-5.4 Pro suite and Google's fast-closing Gemini 3.1 Pro, while Meta's new Muse Spark aims to re-enter the frontier race. By June 30, market-implied odds hinge on impending model drops from these labs, potential developer conference reveals like Google I/O echoes, and benchmark shifts, underscoring prediction markets' skin-in-the-game wisdom on rapid AI scaling dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
音量
$1,433,253
終了日
2026/06/30
マーケット開始日
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「6月30日までにナンバーワンのAIモデルを持つのはどの企業ですか?」はPolymarket上の11個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「Anthropic」で100%、次いで「OpenAI」が31%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、100¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に100%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「6月30日までにナンバーワンのAIモデルを持つのはどの企業ですか?」は$1.4 millionの総取引量を生み出しています(Dec 22, 2025のマーケット開始以来)。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「6月30日までにナンバーワンのAIモデルを持つのはどの企業ですか?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている11個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「6月30日までにナンバーワンのAIモデルを持つのはどの企業ですか?」の現在のフロントランナーは「Anthropic」で100%であり、市場がこの結果に100%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「OpenAI」で31%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「6月30日までにナンバーワンのAIモデルを持つのはどの企業ですか?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。