Anthropic's recent release of Claude Opus 4.7 on April 16 has propelled its models to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, with Claude Opus 4.6 (Thinking) securing the #1 Elo score around 1502 and dominating reasoning benchmarks, driving strong trader consensus for near-term leadership. This edge stems from superior self-correction and professional task performance amid fierce competition from OpenAI's versatile GPT-5.4 Pro suite and Google's fast-closing Gemini 3.1 Pro, while Meta's new Muse Spark aims to re-enter the frontier race. By June 30, market-implied odds hinge on impending model drops from these labs, potential developer conference reveals like Google I/O echoes, and benchmark shifts, underscoring prediction markets' skin-in-the-game wisdom on rapid AI scaling dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$1,433,253 Vol.

OpenAI
31%

xAI
13%

アリババ
8%

Meta
7%

DeepSeek
7%

Z.ai
6%

Nvidia
5%

バイドゥ
4%

Mistral
3%

Meituan
3%
$1,433,253 Vol.

OpenAI
31%

xAI
13%

アリババ
8%

Meta
7%

DeepSeek
7%

Z.ai
6%

Nvidia
5%

バイドゥ
4%

Mistral
3%

Meituan
3%
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
マーケット開始日: Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's recent release of Claude Opus 4.7 on April 16 has propelled its models to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, with Claude Opus 4.6 (Thinking) securing the #1 Elo score around 1502 and dominating reasoning benchmarks, driving strong trader consensus for near-term leadership. This edge stems from superior self-correction and professional task performance amid fierce competition from OpenAI's versatile GPT-5.4 Pro suite and Google's fast-closing Gemini 3.1 Pro, while Meta's new Muse Spark aims to re-enter the frontier race. By June 30, market-implied odds hinge on impending model drops from these labs, potential developer conference reveals like Google I/O echoes, and benchmark shifts, underscoring prediction markets' skin-in-the-game wisdom on rapid AI scaling dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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