Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei will not face arrest, driven by the absence of any credible reports of criminal investigations, indictments, or DOJ/FBI actions against him despite a high-profile clash with the Pentagon. In late February 2026, Amodei refused demands for unrestricted access to Anthropic's Claude AI model over concerns including mass surveillance and autonomous weapons, prompting a Trump administration "supply chain risk" designation that halted defense contracts. Anthropic sued, and on March 27 a federal judge blocked the ban as illegal retaliation, de-escalating tensions without personal legal jeopardy for Amodei. Realistic shifts would require unforeseen developments like new charges or scandals, though none have emerged in the past two weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$145,864 Vol.
$145,864 Vol.
2026/06/30
はい
$145,864 Vol.
$145,864 Vol.
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei will not face arrest, driven by the absence of any credible reports of criminal investigations, indictments, or DOJ/FBI actions against him despite a high-profile clash with the Pentagon. In late February 2026, Amodei refused demands for unrestricted access to Anthropic's Claude AI model over concerns including mass surveillance and autonomous weapons, prompting a Trump administration "supply chain risk" designation that halted defense contracts. Anthropic sued, and on March 27 a federal judge blocked the ban as illegal retaliation, de-escalating tensions without personal legal jeopardy for Amodei. Realistic shifts would require unforeseen developments like new charges or scandals, though none have emerged in the past two weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
音量
$145,864終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei will not face arrest, driven by the absence of any credible reports of criminal investigations, indictments, or DOJ/FBI actions against him despite a high-profile clash with the Pentagon. In late February 2026, Amodei refused demands for unrestricted access to Anthropic's Claude AI model over concerns including mass surveillance and autonomous weapons, prompting a Trump administration "supply chain risk" designation that halted defense contracts. Anthropic sued, and on March 27 a federal judge blocked the ban as illegal retaliation, de-escalating tensions without personal legal jeopardy for Amodei. Realistic shifts would require unforeseen developments like new charges or scandals, though none have emerged in the past two weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$145,864終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei will not face arrest, driven by the absence of any credible reports of criminal investigations, indictments, or DOJ/FBI actions against him despite a high-profile clash with the Pentagon. In late February 2026, Amodei refused demands for unrestricted access to Anthropic's Claude AI model over concerns including mass surveillance and autonomous weapons, prompting a Trump administration "supply chain risk" designation that halted defense contracts. Anthropic sued, and on March 27 a federal judge blocked the ban as illegal retaliation, de-escalating tensions without personal legal jeopardy for Amodei. Realistic shifts would require unforeseen developments like new charges or scandals, though none have emerged in the past two weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問