Recent U.S. trade data through March 2026 show the goods-and-services deficit narrowing sharply year-to-date after 2025 tariff hikes raised import costs and prompted supply-chain shifts, with monthly readings holding in the $55–60 billion range. Services surpluses continue to offset much of the goods gap. Broader macroeconomic factors—including domestic saving-investment imbalances, dollar movements, and global demand—limit further compression, positioning the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges as the trader consensus for the full-year total. CBO projections similarly anticipate a declining deficit as a share of GDP through 2026 amid ongoing tariff adjustments and recovery in trade flows.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$21,075 Vol.
$21,075 Vol.
2027/02/28
5,000億ドル未満
8%
5000億〜6000億
4%
6000億〜7000億
9%
7,000億〜8,000億ドル
10%
8000億～9000億
44%
9,000億〜1兆
40%
1兆〜1.1兆
6%
1.1兆ドル以上
5%
$21,075 Vol.
$21,075 Vol.
2027/02/28
5,000億ドル未満
$16,638 Vol.
8%
5000億〜6000億
$413 Vol.
4%
6000億〜7000億
$495 Vol.
9%
7,000億〜8,000億ドル
$456 Vol.
10%
8000億～9000億
$1,008 Vol.
44%
9,000億〜1兆
$984 Vol.
40%
1兆〜1.1兆
$447 Vol.
6%
1.1兆ドル以上
$635 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data through March 2026 show the goods-and-services deficit narrowing sharply year-to-date after 2025 tariff hikes raised import costs and prompted supply-chain shifts, with monthly readings holding in the $55–60 billion range. Services surpluses continue to offset much of the goods gap. Broader macroeconomic factors—including domestic saving-investment imbalances, dollar movements, and global demand—limit further compression, positioning the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges as the trader consensus for the full-year total. CBO projections similarly anticipate a declining deficit as a share of GDP through 2026 amid ongoing tariff adjustments and recovery in trade flows.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
音量
$21,075終了日
2027/02/28マーケット開始日
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data through March 2026 show the goods-and-services deficit narrowing sharply year-to-date after 2025 tariff hikes raised import costs and prompted supply-chain shifts, with monthly readings holding in the $55–60 billion range. Services surpluses continue to offset much of the goods gap. Broader macroeconomic factors—including domestic saving-investment imbalances, dollar movements, and global demand—limit further compression, positioning the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges as the trader consensus for the full-year total. CBO projections similarly anticipate a declining deficit as a share of GDP through 2026 amid ongoing tariff adjustments and recovery in trade flows.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
音量
$21,075終了日
2027/02/28マーケット開始日
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. trade data through March 2026 show the goods-and-services deficit narrowing sharply year-to-date after 2025 tariff hikes raised import costs and prompted supply-chain shifts, with monthly readings holding in the $55–60 billion range. Services surpluses continue to offset much of the goods gap. Broader macroeconomic factors—including domestic saving-investment imbalances, dollar movements, and global demand—limit further compression, positioning the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges as the trader consensus for the full-year total. CBO projections similarly anticipate a declining deficit as a share of GDP through 2026 amid ongoing tariff adjustments and recovery in trade flows.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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