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選挙·トランプ

トランプ氏は4月30日までに大統領に就任しますか？

Market icon
選挙·トランプ

トランプ氏は4月30日までに大統領に就任しますか？

Mar 31

Apr 30

Jun 30

Dec 31

Mar 31

Apr 30

Jun 30

Dec 31

はい

1% chance
Polymarket
NEW

$44,046 Vol.

はい

1% chance
Polymarket
NEW

$44,046 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.7% on President Trump remaining in office through April 30, reflecting the absence of any credible removal mechanisms amid his active schedule, including a March 26 cabinet meeting and March 27 speech at the Saudi Future Investment Initiative summit in Miami. No impeachment articles have advanced in the Republican-controlled House, despite fringe petitions garnering over 250,000 signatures, and Senate conviction remains structurally improbable without a two-thirds supermajority. Recent staff departures, like counterterrorism chief Joe Kent's March 17 resignation over Iran policy, signal internal tensions but pose no threat to the presidency. Ongoing DHS funding issues persist without derailing executive functions. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented events such as 25th Amendment invocation by Vice President Vance and cabinet, sudden health crisis, or voluntary resignation—none currently evident.

Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.7% on President Trump remaining in office through April 30, reflecting the absence of any credible removal mechanisms amid his active schedule, including a March 26 cabinet meeting and March 27 speech at the Saudi Future Investment Initiative summit in Miami. No impeachment articles have advanced in the Republican-controlled House, despite fringe petitions garnering over 250,000 signatures, and Senate conviction remains structurally improbable without a two-thirds supermajority. Recent staff departures, like counterterrorism chief Joe Kent's March 17 resignation over Iran policy, signal internal tensions but pose no threat to the presidency. Ongoing DHS funding issues persist without derailing executive functions. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented events such as 25th Amendment invocation by Vice President Vance and cabinet, sudden health crisis, or voluntary resignation—none currently evident.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.7% on President Trump remaining in office through April 30, reflecting the absence of any credible removal mechanisms amid his active schedule, including a March 26 cabinet meeting and March 27 speech at the Saudi Future Investment Initiative summit in Miami. No impeachment articles have advanced in the Republican-controlled House, despite fringe petitions garnering over 250,000 signatures, and Senate conviction remains structurally improbable without a two-thirds supermajority. Recent staff departures, like counterterrorism chief Joe Kent's March 17 resignation over Iran policy, signal internal tensions but pose no threat to the presidency. Ongoing DHS funding issues persist without derailing executive functions. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented events such as 25th Amendment invocation by Vice President Vance and cabinet, sudden health crisis, or voluntary resignation—none currently evident.

Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.7% on President Trump remaining in office through April 30, reflecting the absence of any credible removal mechanisms amid his active schedule, including a March 26 cabinet meeting and March 27 speech at the Saudi Future Investment Initiative summit in Miami. No impeachment articles have advanced in the Republican-controlled House, despite fringe petitions garnering over 250,000 signatures, and Senate conviction remains structurally improbable without a two-thirds supermajority. Recent staff departures, like counterterrorism chief Joe Kent's March 17 resignation over Iran policy, signal internal tensions but pose no threat to the presidency. Ongoing DHS funding issues persist without derailing executive functions. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented events such as 25th Amendment invocation by Vice President Vance and cabinet, sudden health crisis, or voluntary resignation—none currently evident.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「トランプ氏は4月30日までに大統領に就任しますか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「トランプ大統領は4月30日までに退任するか？」で1%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、1¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に1%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「トランプ氏は4月30日までに大統領に就任しますか？」は$44Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Mar 26, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「トランプ氏は4月30日までに大統領に就任しますか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「トランプ氏は4月30日までに大統領に就任しますか？」の現在のリーダーは「トランプ大統領は4月30日までに退任するか？」でわずか1%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「トランプ氏は4月30日までに大統領に就任しますか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。