Skip to main content
icon for ブラジル大統領選挙
世界·ブラジル

ブラジル大統領選挙

icon for ブラジル大統領選挙
世界·ブラジル

ブラジル大統領選挙

ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 61%

フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 26.3%

レナン・サントス 8.6%

ミシェル・ボルソナロ 1.4%

Polymarket

$114,016,555 Vol.

ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 61%

フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 26.3%

レナン・サントス 8.6%

ミシェル・ボルソナロ 1.4%

Polymarket

$114,016,555 Vol.

icon for ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ

ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ

$7,503,046 Vol.

61%

icon for フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ

フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ

$7,472,521 Vol.

26%

icon for レナン・サントス

レナン・サントス

$8,201,358 Vol.

9%

icon for ミシェル・ボルソナロ

ミシェル・ボルソナロ

$9,082,063 Vol.

1%

icon for ロナウド・カイアド

ロナウド・カイアド

$4,985,102 Vol.

1%

icon for ジャイール・ボルソナロ

ジャイール・ボルソナロ

$5,147,868 Vol.

1%

icon for カミロ・サンタナ

カミロ・サンタナ

$3,966,214 Vol.

1%

icon for ロメウ・ゼマ

ロメウ・ゼマ

$4,422,321 Vol.

1%

icon for ジェラウド・アルクミン

ジェラウド・アルクミン

$4,716,244 Vol.

<1%

icon for フェルナンド・ハダジ

フェルナンド・ハダジ

$6,265,617 Vol.

<1%

icon for タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス

タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス

$13,498,497 Vol.

<1%

icon for エドゥアルド・ボルソナロ

エドゥアルド・ボルソナロ

$10,275,777 Vol.

<1%

icon for テレーザ・クリスチーナ

テレーザ・クリスチーナ

$3,059,425 Vol.

<1%

icon for ハチーニョ・ジュニオール

ハチーニョ・ジュニオール

$10,360,625 Vol.

<1%

icon for エドゥアルド・レイチ

エドゥアルド・レイチ

$7,889,290 Vol.

<1%

icon for アルド・レベロ

アルド・レベロ

$4,864,712 Vol.

<1%

icon for エルデル・バルバリョ

エルデル・バルバリョ

$2,305,877 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's position as incumbent seeking a fourth term underpins his leading 50.5% implied probability in the 2026 race, reinforced by recent scandals that have eroded support for main challenger Flávio Bolsonaro. June polls from Quaest, MDA, and others show Lula at 41-43% in first-round intentions ahead of Flávio at 28-34%, with the gap widening after audio leaks tied the senator to a disgraced banker and prompted voter scrutiny. Fragmentation among other right-leaning figures including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos limits unified opposition, while concerns over crime and economic performance shape voter priorities ahead of the October 4 first round. Trader consensus reflects these dynamics, with lower odds for alternatives underscoring the binary contest emerging between the Workers' Party and Liberal Party standard-bearers.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
音量
$114,016,555
終了日
2026/10/04
マーケット開始日
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's position as incumbent seeking a fourth term underpins his leading 50.5% implied probability in the 2026 race, reinforced by recent scandals that have eroded support for main challenger Flávio Bolsonaro. June polls from Quaest, MDA, and others show Lula at 41-43% in first-round intentions ahead of Flávio at 28-34%, with the gap widening after audio leaks tied the senator to a disgraced banker and prompted voter scrutiny. Fragmentation among other right-leaning figures including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos limits unified opposition, while concerns over crime and economic performance shape voter priorities ahead of the October 4 first round. Trader consensus reflects these dynamics, with lower odds for alternatives underscoring the binary contest emerging between the Workers' Party and Liberal Party standard-bearers.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
音量
$114,016,555
終了日
2026/10/04
マーケット開始日
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

関連

icon for フラヴィオ・ボルソナロは2026年ブラジル大統領選挙の第1ラウンドで2位になるでしょうか？

フラヴィオ・ボルソナロは2026年ブラジル大統領選挙の第1ラウンドで2位になるでしょうか？

79%
はい
icon for レナン・サントスは2026年ブラジル大統領選挙の第1ラウンドで3位になるでしょうか？

レナン・サントスは2026年ブラジル大統領選挙の第1ラウンドで3位になるでしょうか？

60%
はい
icon for ブラジル大統領選挙の第1回投票で、いずれかの大統領候補が直接勝利するでしょうか？

ブラジル大統領選挙の第1回投票で、いずれかの大統領候補が直接勝利するでしょうか？

11%
はい

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「ブラジル大統領選挙」はPolymarket上の17個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ」で61%、次いで「フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ」が26%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、61¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に61%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「ブラジル大統領選挙」は$114 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Sep 18, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「ブラジル大統領選挙」で取引するには、このページに記載されている17個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「ブラジル大統領選挙」の現在のフロントランナーは「ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ」で61%であり、市場がこの結果に61%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ」で26%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「ブラジル大統領選挙」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。