The Workers' Party (PT) has centered its 2026 election strategy on incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's re-election bid, driving trader consensus to an 82.5% implied probability of formal nomination by the August 15 filing deadline ahead of the October 4 presidential vote. At its April 26 national congress, PT approved a manifesto prioritizing Lula's candidacy without his presence, while the executive committee on April 8 reinforced it as the central tactic. Recent polls like Datafolha show Lula leading at 39%, and he is timing a pre-candidacy launch for a more favorable moment, mirroring his May 2022 declaration. No internal challengers have emerged, though his recent Supreme Court nomination defeat highlights congressional tensions that could influence party dynamics. PT state-level candidate planning continues apace.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$10,051 Vol.
$10,051 Vol.
2026/08/15
はい
$10,051 Vol.
$10,051 Vol.
2026/08/15
The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify.
This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Workers' Party (PT) has centered its 2026 election strategy on incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's re-election bid, driving trader consensus to an 82.5% implied probability of formal nomination by the August 15 filing deadline ahead of the October 4 presidential vote. At its April 26 national congress, PT approved a manifesto prioritizing Lula's candidacy without his presence, while the executive committee on April 8 reinforced it as the central tactic. Recent polls like Datafolha show Lula leading at 39%, and he is timing a pre-candidacy launch for a more favorable moment, mirroring his May 2022 declaration. No internal challengers have emerged, though his recent Supreme Court nomination defeat highlights congressional tensions that could influence party dynamics. PT state-level candidate planning continues apace.
The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify.
This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify.
This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 17, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
音量
$10,051終了日
2026/08/15マーケット開始日
Apr 17, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify.
This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Workers' Party (PT) has centered its 2026 election strategy on incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's re-election bid, driving trader consensus to an 82.5% implied probability of formal nomination by the August 15 filing deadline ahead of the October 4 presidential vote. At its April 26 national congress, PT approved a manifesto prioritizing Lula's candidacy without his presence, while the executive committee on April 8 reinforced it as the central tactic. Recent polls like Datafolha show Lula leading at 39%, and he is timing a pre-candidacy launch for a more favorable moment, mirroring his May 2022 declaration. No internal challengers have emerged, though his recent Supreme Court nomination defeat highlights congressional tensions that could influence party dynamics. PT state-level candidate planning continues apace.
The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify.
This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify.
This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$10,051終了日
2026/08/15マーケット開始日
Apr 17, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Workers' Party (PT) has centered its 2026 election strategy on incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's re-election bid, driving trader consensus to an 82.5% implied probability of formal nomination by the August 15 filing deadline ahead of the October 4 presidential vote. At its April 26 national congress, PT approved a manifesto prioritizing Lula's candidacy without his presence, while the executive committee on April 8 reinforced it as the central tactic. Recent polls like Datafolha show Lula leading at 39%, and he is timing a pre-candidacy launch for a more favorable moment, mirroring his May 2022 declaration. No internal challengers have emerged, though his recent Supreme Court nomination defeat highlights congressional tensions that could influence party dynamics. PT state-level candidate planning continues apace.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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