Ciro Gomes holds a commanding position in the Ceará gubernatorial race, with traders assigning him a 72% implied probability of victory ahead of the October 4, 2026 first-round vote. Recent April and May 2026 surveys from Datafolha and Genial/Quaest show him leading incumbent Elmano de Freitas by double digits in first-round voting intentions, at 41–47% to 32%, reflecting voter preference for Gomes’s established regional profile and policy record. This polling gap has sustained market pricing despite Elmano’s positive approval ratings on governance issues. Other candidates, including Camilo Santana, Capitão Wagner, Eduardo Girão, and Roberto Cláudio, remain marginal in both surveys and market odds below 5%. The contest remains subject to potential shifts from coalition alignments or late-campaign dynamics before the runoff date of October 25 if no candidate secures an outright majority.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Ciro Gomes 72%
Elmano de Freitas 25%
カミロ・サンタナ 4.7%
Capitão Wagner <1%
$56,176 Vol.
$56,176 Vol.
2026/10/04
Ciro Gomes
72%
Elmano de Freitas
25%
カミロ・サンタナ
5%
Capitão Wagner
<1%
Eduardo Girão
<1%
Roberto Cláudio
<1%
Ciro Gomes 72%
Elmano de Freitas 25%
カミロ・サンタナ 4.7%
Capitão Wagner <1%
$56,176 Vol.
$56,176 Vol.
2026/10/04
Ciro Gomes
$36,866 Vol.
72%
Elmano de Freitas
$6,408 Vol.
25%
カミロ・サンタナ
$3,323 Vol.
5%
Capitão Wagner
$4,372 Vol.
<1%
Eduardo Girão
$3,190 Vol.
<1%
Roberto Cláudio
$2,018 Vol.
<1%
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ciro Gomes holds a commanding position in the Ceará gubernatorial race, with traders assigning him a 72% implied probability of victory ahead of the October 4, 2026 first-round vote. Recent April and May 2026 surveys from Datafolha and Genial/Quaest show him leading incumbent Elmano de Freitas by double digits in first-round voting intentions, at 41–47% to 32%, reflecting voter preference for Gomes’s established regional profile and policy record. This polling gap has sustained market pricing despite Elmano’s positive approval ratings on governance issues. Other candidates, including Camilo Santana, Capitão Wagner, Eduardo Girão, and Roberto Cláudio, remain marginal in both surveys and market odds below 5%. The contest remains subject to potential shifts from coalition alignments or late-campaign dynamics before the runoff date of October 25 if no candidate secures an outright majority.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
マーケット開始日： Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
音量
$56,176終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ciro Gomes holds a commanding position in the Ceará gubernatorial race, with traders assigning him a 72% implied probability of victory ahead of the October 4, 2026 first-round vote. Recent April and May 2026 surveys from Datafolha and Genial/Quaest show him leading incumbent Elmano de Freitas by double digits in first-round voting intentions, at 41–47% to 32%, reflecting voter preference for Gomes’s established regional profile and policy record. This polling gap has sustained market pricing despite Elmano’s positive approval ratings on governance issues. Other candidates, including Camilo Santana, Capitão Wagner, Eduardo Girão, and Roberto Cláudio, remain marginal in both surveys and market odds below 5%. The contest remains subject to potential shifts from coalition alignments or late-campaign dynamics before the runoff date of October 25 if no candidate secures an outright majority.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
音量
$56,176終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ciro Gomes holds a commanding position in the Ceará gubernatorial race, with traders assigning him a 72% implied probability of victory ahead of the October 4, 2026 first-round vote. Recent April and May 2026 surveys from Datafolha and Genial/Quaest show him leading incumbent Elmano de Freitas by double digits in first-round voting intentions, at 41–47% to 32%, reflecting voter preference for Gomes’s established regional profile and policy record. This polling gap has sustained market pricing despite Elmano’s positive approval ratings on governance issues. Other candidates, including Camilo Santana, Capitão Wagner, Eduardo Girão, and Roberto Cláudio, remain marginal in both surveys and market odds below 5%. The contest remains subject to potential shifts from coalition alignments or late-campaign dynamics before the runoff date of October 25 if no candidate secures an outright majority.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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