Market icon
選挙·米国選挙

2028年の米国大統領選挙で勝つ政党はどれですか？

Market icon
選挙·米国選挙

2028年の米国大統領選挙で勝つ政党はどれですか？

$1,526,298 Vol.

Polymarket

$1,526,298 Vol.

Market icon

民主党

$660,955 Vol.

57%

Market icon

共和党

$865,343 Vol.

43%

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Democrats a 57.5% implied probability to win the 2028 US presidential election over Republicans at 42.5%, driven primarily by public backlash against the US military operation in Iran launched February 28, which has wounded over 300 troops in recent Iranian counterstrikes and drawn majority opposition in polls (47-54% against). The conflict, aimed at degrading Iran's missile and nuclear capabilities, has eroded GOP favorability among independents and heightened midterm risks in November 2026, per recent surveys showing Democrats leading generic congressional ballots 49-42%. President Trump's term limit creates an open race, with VP JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio vying for the Republican nomination against early Democratic frontrunners like California Gov. Gavin Newsom, amid historical patterns of party switches in non-incumbent contests.

Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Democrats a 57.5% implied probability to win the 2028 US presidential election over Republicans at 42.5%, driven primarily by public backlash against the US military operation in Iran launched February 28, which has wounded over 300 troops in recent Iranian counterstrikes and drawn majority opposition in polls (47-54% against). The conflict, aimed at degrading Iran's missile and nuclear capabilities, has eroded GOP favorability among independents and heightened midterm risks in November 2026, per recent surveys showing Democrats leading generic congressional ballots 49-42%. President Trump's term limit creates an open race, with VP JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio vying for the Republican nomination against early Democratic frontrunners like California Gov. Gavin Newsom, amid historical patterns of party switches in non-incumbent contests.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Democrats a 57.5% implied probability to win the 2028 US presidential election over Republicans at 42.5%, driven primarily by public backlash against the US military operation in Iran launched February 28, which has wounded over 300 troops in recent Iranian counterstrikes and drawn majority opposition in polls (47-54% against). The conflict, aimed at degrading Iran's missile and nuclear capabilities, has eroded GOP favorability among independents and heightened midterm risks in November 2026, per recent surveys showing Democrats leading generic congressional ballots 49-42%. President Trump's term limit creates an open race, with VP JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio vying for the Republican nomination against early Democratic frontrunners like California Gov. Gavin Newsom, amid historical patterns of party switches in non-incumbent contests.

Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Democrats a 57.5% implied probability to win the 2028 US presidential election over Republicans at 42.5%, driven primarily by public backlash against the US military operation in Iran launched February 28, which has wounded over 300 troops in recent Iranian counterstrikes and drawn majority opposition in polls (47-54% against). The conflict, aimed at degrading Iran's missile and nuclear capabilities, has eroded GOP favorability among independents and heightened midterm risks in November 2026, per recent surveys showing Democrats leading generic congressional ballots 49-42%. President Trump's term limit creates an open race, with VP JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio vying for the Republican nomination against early Democratic frontrunners like California Gov. Gavin Newsom, amid historical patterns of party switches in non-incumbent contests.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「2028年の米国大統領選挙で勝つ政党はどれですか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「民主党」で57%、次いで「共和党」が43%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、57¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に57%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2028年の米国大統領選挙で勝つ政党はどれですか？」は$1.5 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Jul 18, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2028年の米国大統領選挙で勝つ政党はどれですか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2028年の米国大統領選挙で勝つ政党はどれですか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「民主党」で57%であり、市場がこの結果に57%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「共和党」で43%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2028年の米国大統領選挙で勝つ政党はどれですか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。