Incumbent Mayor Ras Baraka commands trader consensus at over 90% implied probability for the May 12, 2026 Newark mayoral election, reflecting his strong incumbency advantage after three terms and a field of seven minor challengers certified by late February. Recent developments, including his March 23 State of the City address outlining Newark's future vision and positive community events like the February Newark Summit, have reinforced perceptions of steady leadership amid no competitive polling or endorsements for rivals like Douglas Davis or Sheila Montague. In this nonpartisan contest, Baraka needs a majority to avoid a runoff with the runner-up. Scenarios that could shift odds include a late scandal, unexpectedly high anti-incumbent turnout, or a surprise coalition among challengers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Ras Baraka 90%
Douglas Davis 3.8%
Nasheedah Singleton 3.4%
Sheila Montague 2.8%
Ras Baraka
90%
Douglas Davis
4%
Nasheedah Singleton
3%
Sheila Montague
3%
Debra Salters
3%
Jhamar Youngblood
1%
Tanisha Garner
1%
Asha Coates-Hamlet
<1%
Noble Milton
<1%
Louis Shockley
<1%
Ras Baraka 90%
Douglas Davis 3.8%
Nasheedah Singleton 3.4%
Sheila Montague 2.8%
Ras Baraka
90%
Douglas Davis
4%
Nasheedah Singleton
3%
Sheila Montague
3%
Debra Salters
3%
Jhamar Youngblood
1%
Tanisha Garner
1%
Asha Coates-Hamlet
<1%
Noble Milton
<1%
Louis Shockley
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Newark as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Newark.
マーケット開始日： Mar 10, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Newark as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Newark.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Mayor Ras Baraka commands trader consensus at over 90% implied probability for the May 12, 2026 Newark mayoral election, reflecting his strong incumbency advantage after three terms and a field of seven minor challengers certified by late February. Recent developments, including his March 23 State of the City address outlining Newark's future vision and positive community events like the February Newark Summit, have reinforced perceptions of steady leadership amid no competitive polling or endorsements for rivals like Douglas Davis or Sheila Montague. In this nonpartisan contest, Baraka needs a majority to avoid a runoff with the runner-up. Scenarios that could shift odds include a late scandal, unexpectedly high anti-incumbent turnout, or a surprise coalition among challengers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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