Incumbent Newark Mayor Ras Baraka commands overwhelming trader consensus at 89% implied probability for the May 2026 nonpartisan general election, driven by his strong name recognition and track record after three terms, bolstered by the February 26 filing deadline yielding seven challengers deemed minor and lacking credible fundraising or organization. Recent certifications of candidates like Douglas Davis and Tanisha Garner underscore the fragmented opposition field, with no polling indicating a viable threat. Baraka's March 23 State of the City address highlighted ongoing priorities like job creation and city improvements, reinforcing voter loyalty amid low challenger visibility. Voter registration closes April 21, but absent scandals or turnout surges, traders anticipate his fourth-term continuation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Ras Baraka 89%
Nasheedah Singleton 4.3%
Douglas Davis 3.3%
Sheila Montague 2.9%
Ras Baraka
89%
Nasheedah Singleton
4%
Douglas Davis
3%
Sheila Montague
3%
Jhamar Youngblood
2%
Debra Salters
2%
Tanisha Garner
1%
Noble Milton
<1%
Asha Coates-Hamlet
<1%
Louis Shockley
<1%
Ras Baraka 89%
Nasheedah Singleton 4.3%
Douglas Davis 3.3%
Sheila Montague 2.9%
Ras Baraka
89%
Nasheedah Singleton
4%
Douglas Davis
3%
Sheila Montague
3%
Jhamar Youngblood
2%
Debra Salters
2%
Tanisha Garner
1%
Noble Milton
<1%
Asha Coates-Hamlet
<1%
Louis Shockley
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Newark as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Newark.
マーケット開始日： Mar 10, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Newark as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Newark.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Newark Mayor Ras Baraka commands overwhelming trader consensus at 89% implied probability for the May 2026 nonpartisan general election, driven by his strong name recognition and track record after three terms, bolstered by the February 26 filing deadline yielding seven challengers deemed minor and lacking credible fundraising or organization. Recent certifications of candidates like Douglas Davis and Tanisha Garner underscore the fragmented opposition field, with no polling indicating a viable threat. Baraka's March 23 State of the City address highlighted ongoing priorities like job creation and city improvements, reinforcing voter loyalty amid low challenger visibility. Voter registration closes April 21, but absent scandals or turnout surges, traders anticipate his fourth-term continuation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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