Trader consensus heavily favors Chong Won-oh at 79% implied probability to win the 2026 Seoul mayoral election, driven by the People Power Party's (PPP) fallout from President Yoon Suk Yeol's short-lived martial law declaration on December 3, 2024, and opposition-led impeachment vote on December 14. This national crisis has eroded conservative support, boosting Democratic Party (DP) frontrunners like Chong amid shifting voter sentiment in Seoul, a battleground city. Incumbent PPP Mayor Oh Se-hoon lags at 13%, vulnerable as party leader amid backlash, while Park Ju-min holds 6.8% as a potential DP alternative. No primaries have occurred, but the Constitutional Court's impeachment ruling—due by early 2025—could prompt a snap presidential election, further tilting local dynamics in this plurality-winner race.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日チョン・ウォノ 79%
オ・セフン 13%
パク・ジュミン 6.8%
チョン・ヒョンヒ <1%
$7,364,041 Vol.
$7,364,041 Vol.
チョン・ウォノ
79%
オ・セフン
13%
パク・ジュミン
7%
チョン・ヒョンヒ
<1%
安哲秀
<1%
ハン・ドンフン
<1%
チョ・ウンヒ
<1%
パク・ヨンジン
<1%
ホン・イクピョ
<1%
チョ・グク
<1%
カン・フンシク
<1%
ナ・ギョンウォン
<1%
パク・ホングン
<1%
徐暎教
<1%
チョン・ウォノ 79%
オ・セフン 13%
パク・ジュミン 6.8%
チョン・ヒョンヒ <1%
$7,364,041 Vol.
$7,364,041 Vol.
チョン・ウォノ
79%
オ・セフン
13%
パク・ジュミン
7%
チョン・ヒョンヒ
<1%
安哲秀
<1%
ハン・ドンフン
<1%
チョ・ウンヒ
<1%
パク・ヨンジン
<1%
ホン・イクピョ
<1%
チョ・グク
<1%
カン・フンシク
<1%
ナ・ギョンウォン
<1%
パク・ホングン
<1%
徐暎教
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 7:25 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors Chong Won-oh at 79% implied probability to win the 2026 Seoul mayoral election, driven by the People Power Party's (PPP) fallout from President Yoon Suk Yeol's short-lived martial law declaration on December 3, 2024, and opposition-led impeachment vote on December 14. This national crisis has eroded conservative support, boosting Democratic Party (DP) frontrunners like Chong amid shifting voter sentiment in Seoul, a battleground city. Incumbent PPP Mayor Oh Se-hoon lags at 13%, vulnerable as party leader amid backlash, while Park Ju-min holds 6.8% as a potential DP alternative. No primaries have occurred, but the Constitutional Court's impeachment ruling—due by early 2025—could prompt a snap presidential election, further tilting local dynamics in this plurality-winner race.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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