Recent polls from Alpha Research and Market Links, conducted mid-to-late March, show Progressive Bulgaria (PB)—the new coalition led by former President Rumen Radev—leading GERB-SDS by 8-12 percentage points with 29-31% support versus 20-22%, anchoring trader consensus on a PB victory margin of 10-15% or 5-10% in the April 19 snap parliamentary election. This positioning stems from PB's rapid rise amid voter exhaustion from seven prior elections since 2021, leveraging Radev's popularity to consolidate anti-establishment sentiment in a fragmented proportional representation system. The race remains tight due to strong third-place showings by PP-DB (12%) and DPS-NN (10%), low anticipated turnout around 51%, and risks from social media manipulation; late campaign shifts, endorsements, or scandals could widen or narrow the gap ahead of coalition negotiations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日PB 10-15% 41%
PB 5-10% 33%
PB <5% 12%
Other 10%
NEW
NEW
Apr 19, 2026
PB 20%+
9%
PB 15-20%
10%
PB 10-15%
41%
PB 5-10%
33%
PB <5%
12%
GERB-SDSの勝利
10%
Other
10%
PB 10-15% 41%
PB 5-10% 33%
PB <5% 12%
Other 10%
NEW
NEW
Apr 19, 2026
PB 20%+
$20 Vol.
9%
PB 15-20%
$0 Vol.
10%
PB 10-15%
$158 Vol.
41%
PB 5-10%
$29 Vol.
33%
PB <5%
$0 Vol.
12%
GERB-SDSの勝利
$0 Vol.
10%
Other
$0 Vol.
10%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Recent polls from Alpha Research and Market Links, conducted mid-to-late March, show Progressive Bulgaria (PB)—the new coalition led by former President Rumen Radev—leading GERB-SDS by 8-12 percentage points with 29-31% support versus 20-22%, anchoring trader consensus on a PB victory margin of 10-15% or 5-10% in the April 19 snap parliamentary election. This positioning stems from PB's rapid rise amid voter exhaustion from seven prior elections since 2021, leveraging Radev's popularity to consolidate anti-establishment sentiment in a fragmented proportional representation system. The race remains tight due to strong third-place showings by PP-DB (12%) and DPS-NN (10%), low anticipated turnout around 51%, and risks from social media manipulation; late campaign shifts, endorsements, or scandals could widen or narrow the gap ahead of coalition negotiations.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
マーケット開始日： Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
音量
$208終了日
Apr 19, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Recent polls from Alpha Research and Market Links, conducted mid-to-late March, show Progressive Bulgaria (PB)—the new coalition led by former President Rumen Radev—leading GERB-SDS by 8-12 percentage points with 29-31% support versus 20-22%, anchoring trader consensus on a PB victory margin of 10-15% or 5-10% in the April 19 snap parliamentary election. This positioning stems from PB's rapid rise amid voter exhaustion from seven prior elections since 2021, leveraging Radev's popularity to consolidate anti-establishment sentiment in a fragmented proportional representation system. The race remains tight due to strong third-place showings by PP-DB (12%) and DPS-NN (10%), low anticipated turnout around 51%, and risks from social media manipulation; late campaign shifts, endorsements, or scandals could widen or narrow the gap ahead of coalition negotiations.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
音量
$208終了日
Apr 19, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls from Alpha Research and Market Links, conducted mid-to-late March, show Progressive Bulgaria (PB)—the new coalition led by former President Rumen Radev—leading GERB-SDS by 8-12 percentage points with 29-31% support versus 20-22%, anchoring trader consensus on a PB victory margin of 10-15% or 5-10% in the April 19 snap parliamentary election. This positioning stems from PB's rapid rise amid voter exhaustion from seven prior elections since 2021, leveraging Radev's popularity to consolidate anti-establishment sentiment in a fragmented proportional representation system. The race remains tight due to strong third-place showings by PP-DB (12%) and DPS-NN (10%), low anticipated turnout around 51%, and risks from social media manipulation; late campaign shifts, endorsements, or scandals could widen or narrow the gap ahead of coalition negotiations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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