Trader consensus on the Hungary parliamentary election's second-place finish heavily favors Fidesz-KDNP at 67% implied probability, reflecting polls showing a tightening race with challenger Tisza, where the incumbent risks slipping to runner-up amid surging opposition momentum. Recent surveys, including a Publicus poll from early October placing Tisza ahead 36%-33% among decided voters, have narrowed Fidesz's once-dominant lead, fueled by public discontent over inflation, EU fund disputes, and scandals like the chief prosecutor's pardon controversy involving Orbán allies. Péter Magyar's Tisza has capitalized on this via high-profile rallies and EU election gains, while legacy parties like MSZP and DK remain fragmented below 2%. The top-two dynamic leaves little room for others, with resolution tied to national vote share or seats in the 2026 vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Hungary Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
Hungary Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
Fidesz-KDNP 67%
TISZA 32%
MSZP 1.0%
Jobbik <1%
$12,247 Vol.
$12,247 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Fidesz-KDNP
67%
TISZA
32%
MSZP
1%
Jobbik
1%
Mi Hazánk
<1%
LMP
<1%
DK
<1%
Momentum
<1%
Párbeszéd
<1%
Fidesz-KDNP 67%
TISZA 32%
MSZP 1.0%
Jobbik <1%
$12,247 Vol.
$12,247 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Fidesz-KDNP
$4,683 Vol.
67%
TISZA
$1,599 Vol.
32%
MSZP
$1,073 Vol.
1%
Jobbik
$836 Vol.
1%
Mi Hazánk
$760 Vol.
<1%
LMP
$830 Vol.
<1%
DK
$980 Vol.
<1%
Momentum
$686 Vol.
<1%
Párbeszéd
$800 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.
マーケット開始日： Mar 23, 2026, 1:52 PM ET
音量
$12,247終了日
Apr 12, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 1:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.
音量
$12,247終了日
Apr 12, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 1:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the Hungary parliamentary election's second-place finish heavily favors Fidesz-KDNP at 67% implied probability, reflecting polls showing a tightening race with challenger Tisza, where the incumbent risks slipping to runner-up amid surging opposition momentum. Recent surveys, including a Publicus poll from early October placing Tisza ahead 36%-33% among decided voters, have narrowed Fidesz's once-dominant lead, fueled by public discontent over inflation, EU fund disputes, and scandals like the chief prosecutor's pardon controversy involving Orbán allies. Péter Magyar's Tisza has capitalized on this via high-profile rallies and EU election gains, while legacy parties like MSZP and DK remain fragmented below 2%. The top-two dynamic leaves little room for others, with resolution tied to national vote share or seats in the 2026 vote.
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