The razor-thin contest between Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's Fidesz and challenger Péter Magyar's Tisza party—evident in late-March polls like Publicus (Tisza 49%, Fidesz 40%) and Republikon (Tisza 49%, Fidesz 40%)—has driven exceptional voter enthusiasm, with Republikon noting extremely high willingness to participate and Medián reporting 89% of respondents sure to vote. This anchors trader consensus around 71–77% turnout, mirroring 2022's 74.27% amid comparable stakes for the National Assembly. Divergent government versus opposition-aligned surveys and recent accusations of voter intimidation keep the race tight between these bins. Final-week mobilization efforts, rural voter turnout, or OSCE monitoring on April 12 could push probabilities higher or lower.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日71～74％ 36%
74～77％ 26%
80％超 15.5%
68〜71％ 12%
$101,586 Vol.
$101,586 Vol.
2026/04/12
65％未満
<1%
65〜68％
4%
68〜71％
12%
71～74％
36%
74～77％
26%
77～80％
11%
80％超
16%
71～74％ 36%
74～77％ 26%
80％超 15.5%
68〜71％ 12%
$101,586 Vol.
$101,586 Vol.
2026/04/12
65％未満
$3,325 Vol.
<1%
65〜68％
$4,884 Vol.
4%
68〜71％
$60,099 Vol.
12%
71～74％
$9,842 Vol.
36%
74～77％
$6,118 Vol.
26%
77～80％
$10,411 Vol.
11%
80％超
$6,908 Vol.
16%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Hungary Parliamentary election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters. All eligible voters includes eligible voters voting by mail or without a Hungarian address.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, including the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).The razor-thin contest between Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's Fidesz and challenger Péter Magyar's Tisza party—evident in late-March polls like Publicus (Tisza 49%, Fidesz 40%) and Republikon (Tisza 49%, Fidesz 40%)—has driven exceptional voter enthusiasm, with Republikon noting extremely high willingness to participate and Medián reporting 89% of respondents sure to vote. This anchors trader consensus around 71–77% turnout, mirroring 2022's 74.27% amid comparable stakes for the National Assembly. Divergent government versus opposition-aligned surveys and recent accusations of voter intimidation keep the race tight between these bins. Final-week mobilization efforts, rural voter turnout, or OSCE monitoring on April 12 could push probabilities higher or lower.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Hungary Parliamentary election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters. All eligible voters includes eligible voters voting by mail or without a Hungarian address.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, including the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
This market will resolve based on the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Hungary Parliamentary election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters. All eligible voters includes eligible voters voting by mail or without a Hungarian address.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, including the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
マーケット開始日： Mar 13, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
音量
$101,586終了日
2026/04/12マーケット開始日
Mar 13, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Hungary Parliamentary election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters. All eligible voters includes eligible voters voting by mail or without a Hungarian address.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, including the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).The razor-thin contest between Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's Fidesz and challenger Péter Magyar's Tisza party—evident in late-March polls like Publicus (Tisza 49%, Fidesz 40%) and Republikon (Tisza 49%, Fidesz 40%)—has driven exceptional voter enthusiasm, with Republikon noting extremely high willingness to participate and Medián reporting 89% of respondents sure to vote. This anchors trader consensus around 71–77% turnout, mirroring 2022's 74.27% amid comparable stakes for the National Assembly. Divergent government versus opposition-aligned surveys and recent accusations of voter intimidation keep the race tight between these bins. Final-week mobilization efforts, rural voter turnout, or OSCE monitoring on April 12 could push probabilities higher or lower.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Hungary Parliamentary election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters. All eligible voters includes eligible voters voting by mail or without a Hungarian address.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, including the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
This market will resolve based on the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Hungary Parliamentary election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters. All eligible voters includes eligible voters voting by mail or without a Hungarian address.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, including the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
音量
$101,586終了日
2026/04/12マーケット開始日
Mar 13, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The razor-thin contest between Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's Fidesz and challenger Péter Magyar's Tisza party—evident in late-March polls like Publicus (Tisza 49%, Fidesz 40%) and Republikon (Tisza 49%, Fidesz 40%)—has driven exceptional voter enthusiasm, with Republikon noting extremely high willingness to participate and Medián reporting 89% of respondents sure to vote. This anchors trader consensus around 71–77% turnout, mirroring 2022's 74.27% amid comparable stakes for the National Assembly. Divergent government versus opposition-aligned surveys and recent accusations of voter intimidation keep the race tight between these bins. Final-week mobilization efforts, rural voter turnout, or OSCE monitoring on April 12 could push probabilities higher or lower.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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