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政治·ハンガリー

ハンガリー議会選挙：人気投票の勝者

Market icon
政治·ハンガリー

ハンガリー議会選挙：人気投票の勝者

ティサ 76%

フィデス＝KDNP 24%

その他 <1%

Polymarket

$104,622 Vol.

ティサ 76%

フィデス＝KDNP 24%

その他 <1%

Polymarket

$104,622 Vol.

Market icon

フィデス＝KDNP

$58,489 Vol.

24%

Market icon

ティサ

$46,133 Vol.

76%

Market icon

その他

$0 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.” If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Recent polls, including a March 25 Medián survey showing Tisza at 58% versus Fidesz–KDNP's 35% among decided voters, have widened the opposition's lead ahead of Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election under its mixed single-member district and proportional list system. Péter Magyar's Tisza party has sustained momentum from large rallies, such as the half-million-strong March 15 national day event, amid economic discontent and anti-incumbency after Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this polling average, pricing Tisza's popular vote win at 76% as the wisdom of crowds anticipates sustained opposition strength, though late swings or undecided turnout could narrow the gap in the final two weeks.

Recent polls, including a March 25 Medián survey showing Tisza at 58% versus Fidesz–KDNP's 35% among decided voters, have widened the opposition's lead ahead of Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election under its mixed single-member district and proportional list system. Péter Magyar's Tisza party has sustained momentum from large rallies, such as the half-million-strong March 15 national day event, amid economic discontent and anti-incumbency after Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this polling average, pricing Tisza's popular vote win at 76% as the wisdom of crowds anticipates sustained opposition strength, though late swings or undecided turnout could narrow the gap in the final two weeks.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.” If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Recent polls, including a March 25 Medián survey showing Tisza at 58% versus Fidesz–KDNP's 35% among decided voters, have widened the opposition's lead ahead of Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election under its mixed single-member district and proportional list system. Péter Magyar's Tisza party has sustained momentum from large rallies, such as the half-million-strong March 15 national day event, amid economic discontent and anti-incumbency after Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this polling average, pricing Tisza's popular vote win at 76% as the wisdom of crowds anticipates sustained opposition strength, though late swings or undecided turnout could narrow the gap in the final two weeks.

Recent polls, including a March 25 Medián survey showing Tisza at 58% versus Fidesz–KDNP's 35% among decided voters, have widened the opposition's lead ahead of Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election under its mixed single-member district and proportional list system. Péter Magyar's Tisza party has sustained momentum from large rallies, such as the half-million-strong March 15 national day event, amid economic discontent and anti-incumbency after Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this polling average, pricing Tisza's popular vote win at 76% as the wisdom of crowds anticipates sustained opposition strength, though late swings or undecided turnout could narrow the gap in the final two weeks.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「ハンガリー議会選挙：人気投票の勝者」はPolymarket上の3個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「ティサ」で76%、次いで「フィデス＝KDNP」が24%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、76¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に76%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「ハンガリー議会選挙：人気投票の勝者」は$104.6Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Mar 5, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「ハンガリー議会選挙：人気投票の勝者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている3個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「ハンガリー議会選挙：人気投票の勝者」の現在のフロントランナーは「ティサ」で76%であり、市場がこの結果に76%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「フィデス＝KDNP」で24%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「ハンガリー議会選挙：人気投票の勝者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。