Democratic Party candidate Park Soo-hyun commands trader consensus at 93% implied probability to win the June 3 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election, driven by consistent polling leads of 15–21 points over incumbent People Power Party Governor Kim Tae-heum seeking a third term, including KBS and TJB surveys from late April showing Park at 42–44% versus Kim's 23–30% across all regions. Park's April 15 primary victory over former Governor Yang Seung-jo, followed by his assembly seat resignation and active campaigning on AI industry transformation and Chungcheongnam-Daejeon administrative merger, has solidified ruling party momentum under President Lee Jae-myung. While minor candidates trail far behind, Kim retains pockets of support in strongholds like Cheonan and Boryeong; a late scandal, national backlash, or undecided voter swing (15–20% in polls) could narrow the gap before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Yang Seung-jo's market
Yang Seung-jo dips to 0%1%
Market reflects near-zero probability of Yang winning after losing party nomination and lack of independent campaign viability.
The Korea Times reports that Park Soo‑hyun, a former senior presidential secretary, will face incumbent Kim Tae‑heum in the June 3 election, confirming the final matchup
The Korea Times reports that Park Soo‑hyun, a former senior presidential secretary, will face incumbent Kim Tae‑heum in the June 3 election, confirming the final matchup
Final pre‑election rally in Gongju draws massive local support;
Park Soo‑hyun dips to 92%4%
analysts cite the event as confirming Park Soo‑hyun’s dominance heading into the June 3 vote
Democratic Party completes nominations for multiple by-elections including Chungcheongnam-do, confirming strategic sidelining of Kang Hoon-sik
Democratic Party completes nominations for multiple by-elections including Chungcheongnam-do, confirming strategic sidelining of Kang Hoon-sik
| [Poll shows Park Soo‑hyun leading Kim Tae‑heum by double digits ahead of the June election]| New poll data reinforced Park’s dominance, cementing Kim’s low probability and
Kim Tae-heum dips to 3%1%
| [Poll shows Park Soo‑hyun leading Kim Tae‑heum by double digits ahead of the June election]| New poll data reinforced Park’s dominance, cementing Kim’s low probability and nudging the
Polymarket data shows Park Soo‑hyun’s implied win probability at 94.5 % after the primary victory and strong poll numbers, reinforcing market confidence
Polymarket data shows Park Soo‑hyun’s implied win probability at 94.5 % after the primary victory and strong poll numbers, reinforcing market confidence
Polls released after the nomination show Park Soo‑hyun ahead of incumbent Kim Tae‑heum by 20 points (51.9% vs 31.1%), cementing her dominant market position
Park Soo‑hyun dips to 94%2%
Polls released after the nomination show Park Soo‑hyun ahead of incumbent Kim Tae‑heum by 20 points (51.9% vs 31.1%), cementing her dominant market position
Market commentary notes that the late‑stage regional shift toward the Democratic candidate, reinforced by recent polls (42.2% vs 29.5%), pushes Kim Tae‑heum’s implied probability
Market commentary notes that the late‑stage regional shift toward the Democratic candidate, reinforced by recent polls (42.2% vs 29.5%), pushes Kim Tae‑heum’s implied probability to a historic low
Market volume peaks with Park Soo-hyun dominating the race, Yoon Sang-hyun's chances effectively zero
Market trading volume reflects strong consensus on Park Soo-hyun's likely victory, with Yoon Sang-hyun's outcome
Polls show Park Soo-hyun leading incumbent People Power Party governor by double digits, solidifying her front-runner status
Yang Seung-jo dips to 1%2%
Park's strong polling against the incumbent further diminished Yang's chances, pushing his
Polls published on April 28 show Park Soo‑hyun leading by double digits (e.g., 51.9 % vs 31.1 % in a separate survey), pushing the market to its peak probability
Park Soo‑hyun rises to 96%2%
Polls published on April 28 show Park Soo‑hyun leading by double digits (e.g., 51.9 % vs 31.1 % in a separate survey), pushing the market to its peak probability
Jeon Eun-su nominated by Democratic Party for Asan-eul by-election, filling Kang Hoon-sik's vacated parliamentary seat
Jeon Eun-su nominated by Democratic Party for Asan-eul by-election, filling Kang Hoon-sik's vacated parliamentary seat
Democratic Party names “Cho Kuk sniper” Kim Yong‑nam for a different constituency, confirming that Kang Hoon‑sik will remain as presidential chief of staff and will not run for
Democratic Party names “Cho Kuk sniper” Kim Yong‑nam for a different constituency, confirming that Kang Hoon‑sik will remain as presidential chief of staff and will not run for governor
Park Soo‑hyun unveils a 2‑year “South Chungcheong‑Daejeon integration” platform, gaining additional media coverage and voter enthusiasm
Park Soo‑hyun surges to 95%71%
Park Soo‑hyun unveils a 2‑year “South Chungcheong‑Daejeon integration” platform, gaining additional media coverage and voter enthusiasm
Park Soo‑hyun releases a detailed 2‑year policy platform promising South Chungcheong‑Daejeon integration, which resonates with regional voters and sustains the high market
Park Soo‑hyun dips to 94%2%
Park Soo‑hyun releases a detailed 2‑year policy platform promising South Chungcheong‑Daejeon integration, which resonates with regional voters and sustains the high market
Moon Jin‑seok withdraws from the governor race altogether, endorsing Park Soo‑hyun as the Democratic Party’s final candidate
Moon Jin‑seok plunges to 0%20%
Moon Jin‑seok withdraws from the governor race altogether, endorsing Park Soo‑hyun as the Democratic Party’s final candidate
| [PPP Governor Candidate Kim Tae‑heum pledges 50 trillion won investment and a “Silicon Valley” project for Chungcheongnam‑do]| The large‑scale investment promise generated a
Kim Tae-heum rises to 4%2%
| [PPP Governor Candidate Kim Tae‑heum pledges 50 trillion won investment and a “Silicon Valley” project for Chungcheongnam‑do]| The large‑scale investment promise generated a brief uptick, but the market remained skeptical, keeping the
Kim Tae‑heum pledges 50 trillion won of investment and a “Silicon Valley” push for the Asan‑Bay Valley project, reviving optimism
Kim Tae‑heum plunges to 5%21%
Kim Tae‑heum pledges 50 trillion won of investment and a “Silicon Valley” push for the Asan‑Bay Valley project, reviving optimism
Kim Tae‑heum announces a 50 trillion‑won “Silicon Valley” investment pledge and the Asan‑Bay Valley project, briefly reviving his prospects (minor impact, but noted as a positive
Kim Tae‑heum announces a 50 trillion‑won “Silicon Valley” investment pledge and the Asan‑Bay Valley project, briefly reviving his prospects (minor impact, but noted as a positive signal)
Kim Tae‑heum announces a 50‑trillion‑won “Silicon Valley” investment pledge and the Asan Bay Valley project, attempting to boost his platform but failing to lift market odds
Kim Tae‑heum rises to 4%1%
Kim Tae‑heum announces a 50‑trillion‑won “Silicon Valley” investment pledge and the Asan Bay Valley project, attempting to boost his platform but failing to lift market odds
Kim Tae‑heum pledges a ₩50 trillion “Silicon Valley” investment and the Asan Bay Valley project, attempting to boost his economic platform but failing to close the poll gap
Kim Tae‑heum rises to 4%1%
Kim Tae‑heum pledges a ₩50 trillion “Silicon Valley” investment and the Asan Bay Valley project, attempting to boost his economic platform but failing to close the poll gap
Governor Kim Tae‑heum pledges a ₩50 trillion “Silicon Valley” investment and the Asan‑Bay Valley project, drawing criticism over fiscal feasibility
Kim Tae‑heum dips to 1%1%
Governor Kim Tae‑heum pledges a ₩50 trillion “Silicon Valley” investment and the Asan‑Bay Valley project, drawing criticism over fiscal feasibility
Kim Tae‑heum pledges a ₩50 trillion “Silicon Valley” investment and the Asan Bay Valley project, temporarily lifting his market
Kim Tae‑heum rises to 5%2%
Kim Tae‑heum pledges a ₩50 trillion “Silicon Valley” investment and the Asan Bay Valley project, temporarily lifting his market
Kim Tae‑heum pledges a ₩50 trillion “Silicon Valley” investment and finalisation of the Asan Bay Valley project, attempting to revive his campaign narrative but market impact
Kim Tae‑heum pledges a ₩50 trillion “Silicon Valley” investment and finalisation of the Asan Bay Valley project, attempting to revive his campaign narrative but market impact remains muted
Final pre‑election poll shows Moon Jin‑seok at 0.5 % support, effectively eliminating him from contention – The last poll cemented his status as a non‑viable candidate, keeping the
Final pre‑election poll shows Moon Jin‑seok at 0.5 % support, effectively eliminating him from contention – The last poll cemented his status as a non‑viable candidate, keeping the
Democratic Party leader Jung Chung‑rae publicly endorses Park Soo‑hyun, praising her “balanced‑growth” vision and further cementing her frontrunner status
Park Soo‑hyun rises to 96%4%
Democratic Party leader Jung Chung‑rae publicly endorses Park Soo‑hyun, praising her “balanced‑growth” vision and further cementing her frontrunner status
Park Soo‑hyun announces she will resign from the National Assembly on April 29‑30 to run for governor, confirming her full‑time candidacy
Park Soo‑hyun surges to 96%74%
Park Soo‑hyun announces she will resign from the National Assembly on April 29‑30 to run for governor, confirming her full‑time candidacy
Post‑runoff analysis notes Park’s decisive victory and Yang’s exit from the race, cementing the market’s near‑zero odds for Yang
Post‑runoff analysis notes Park’s decisive victory and Yang’s exit from the race, cementing the market’s near‑zero odds for Yang
Poll released by Cho Won C&I shows Park Soo‑hyun at 42.2 % in Chungnam, far ahead of incumbent PPP governor Kim Tae‑heum (29.5 %)
Park Soo‑hyun surges to 88%64%
Poll released by Cho Won C&I shows Park Soo‑hyun at 42.2 % in Chungnam, far ahead of incumbent PPP governor Kim Tae‑heum (29.5 %)
Park Soo‑hyun wins the Democratic Party nomination in the runoff, defeating Yang Seung‑jo and ending his bid for the governorship
Yang Seung‑jo dips to 3%1%
Park Soo‑hyun wins the Democratic Party nomination in the runoff, defeating Yang Seung‑jo and ending his bid for the governorship
Democratic Party finalises Park Soo‑hyun as its Chungnam governor candidate, positioning a strong challenger to incumbent Kim Tae‑heum
Democratic Party finalises Park Soo‑hyun as its Chungnam governor candidate, positioning a strong challenger to incumbent Kim Tae‑heum
Park Soo-hyun wins Democratic Party nomination over Yang Seung-jo in runoff
Yang Seung-jo plunges to 3%72%
Park's victory ended Yang's nomination hopes, causing a sharp collapse in his market
Park Soo‑hyun wins the Democratic Party primary with a 94.5 % implied probability, widening the gap to Kim Tae‑heum’s 4 % market share
Kim Tae‑heum dips to 3%1%
Park Soo‑hyun wins the Democratic Party primary with a 94.5 % implied probability, widening the gap to Kim Tae‑heum’s 4 % market share
Democratic Party nominates Park Soo‑hyun to run against incumbent Kim Tae‑heum, positioning a strong challenger and prompting a sharp drop in Kim’s odds
Kim Tae‑heum dips to 1%1%
Democratic Party nominates Park Soo‑hyun to run against incumbent Kim Tae‑heum, positioning a strong challenger and prompting a sharp drop in Kim’s odds
Park Soo-hyun's primary victory confirmed, making her the clear favorite for the June election
Park Soo-hyun's nomination victory ended any remaining speculation about Yoon Sang-hyun's chances.
Democratic Party leader Jung Chung‑rae publicly endorses Park Soo‑hyun, praising her development plan for the province
Park Soo‑hyun surges to 91%69%
Democratic Party leader Jung Chung‑rae publicly endorses Park Soo‑hyun, praising her development plan for the province
Democratic Party primary winner Park Soo‑hyun announced, with polls showing her leading Kim Tae‑heum by double‑digits, pushing his odds down sharply
Kim Tae‑heum rises to 3%1%
Democratic Party primary winner Park Soo‑hyun announced, with polls showing her leading Kim Tae‑heum by double‑digits, pushing his odds down sharply
Democratic Party nominates Park Soo‑hyun after a runoff, positioning a strong challenger against incumbent Kim Tae‑heum and pushing his market
Kim Tae‑heum rises to 3%2%
Democratic Party nominates Park Soo‑hyun after a runoff, positioning a strong challenger against incumbent Kim Tae‑heum and pushing his market
, solidifying her dominant position and diminishing Kang Hoon-sik's chances.
Kang Hoon-sik drops to 0%9%
, solidifying her dominant position and diminishing Kang Hoon-sik's chances.
Democratic Party finalizes Park Soo‑hyun’s nomination, positioning her as a strong challenger;
Kim Tae‑heum dips to 3%2%
analysts cite polls showing her double‑digit lead over incumbent Kim Tae‑heum
Park Soo‑hyun wins the Democratic Party nomination outright, defeating Yang Seung‑jo in the final runoff
Park Soo‑hyun jumps to 96%6%
Park Soo‑hyun wins the Democratic Party nomination outright, defeating Yang Seung‑jo in the final runoff
Park Soo‑hyun wins the Democratic Party’s nomination for Chungnam governor, defeating Yang Seung‑jo in the runoff
Park Soo‑hyun surges to 92%50%
Park Soo‑hyun wins the Democratic Party’s nomination for Chungnam governor, defeating Yang Seung‑jo in the runoff
Moon Jin‑seok calls for the nomination of Kim Yong as a “prosecutorial reform” candidate, shifting his focus to party‑wide strategy and reviving his relevance
Moon Jin‑seok surges to 20%19%
Moon Jin‑seok calls for the nomination of Kim Yong as a “prosecutorial reform” candidate, shifting his focus to party‑wide strategy and reviving his relevance
The Democratic Party officially removes Moon Jin‑seok from all election‑related roles, confirming he will not appear on the ballot
The Democratic Party officially removes Moon Jin‑seok from all election‑related roles, confirming he will not appear on the ballot
, Kang Hoon-sik acted as a presidential envoy seeking oil supply agreements in Kazakhstan, Oman, and Saudi Arabia, indicating his focus on national duties rather than
, Kang Hoon-sik acted as a presidential envoy seeking oil supply agreements in Kazakhstan, Oman, and Saudi Arabia, indicating his focus on national duties rather than gubernatorial campaigning.
Kang Hoon-sik acts as presidential envoy seeking oil supply deals in Kazakhstan, Oman, and Saudi Arabia, focusing on national duties
Kang Hoon-sik acts as presidential envoy seeking oil supply deals in Kazakhstan, Oman, and Saudi Arabia, focusing on national duties
Democratic Party announces runoff candidates for Chungcheongnam governor: Park Soo-hyun and Yang Seung-jo
Yang Seung-jo plunges to 3%72%
Runoff confirmation initially boosted Yang's odds, but market quickly adjusted as Park gained momentum.
Ruling‑party primary heads to a runoff between Park Soo‑hyun and former governor Yang Seung‑jo, confirming Yang’s place in the final contest
Yang Seung‑jo plunges to 4%68%
Ruling‑party primary heads to a runoff between Park Soo‑hyun and former governor Yang Seung‑jo, confirming Yang’s place in the final contest
Runoff between Park Soo‑hyun and former governor Yang Seung‑jo is announced, with Park positioned as the frontrunner
Park Soo‑hyun surges to 90%37%
Runoff between Park Soo‑hyun and former governor Yang Seung‑jo is announced, with Park positioned as the frontrunner
Democratic Party announces runoff candidates Park Soo-hyun and Yang Seung-jo, excluding Yoon Sang-hyun
Official party announcements confirmed Yoon Sang-hyun was not a contender, cementing his market exit.
Democratic Party announces that the Chungnam gubernatorial primary will go to a runoff between Park Soo‑hyun and former governor Yang Seung‑jo, confirming she remains in the race
Park Soo‑hyun surges to 42%21%
Democratic Party announces that the Chungnam gubernatorial primary will go to a runoff between Park Soo‑hyun and former governor Yang Seung‑jo, confirming she remains in the race and halting the
The Democratic Party announced a runoff between Park Soo‑hyun and former Governor Yang Seung‑jo for the Chungcheongnam‑do gubernatorial nomination, effectively sidelining Moon
The Democratic Party announced a runoff between Park Soo‑hyun and former Governor Yang Seung‑jo for the Chungcheongnam‑do gubernatorial nomination, effectively sidelining Moon Jin‑seok’s candidacy
Moon Jin‑seok publicly apologises for the personnel‑request controversy and steps down from party leadership duties – The apology failed to revive confidence, and the
Moon Jin‑seok dips to 0%1%
Moon Jin‑seok publicly apologises for the personnel‑request controversy and steps down from party leadership duties – The apology failed to revive confidence, and the
Democratic Party formally confirms Rep.
Park Soo‑hyun surges to 53%35%
Park Soo‑hyun as its gubernatorial candidate at a joint speech in Yeouido
Joint speech at the Democratic Party’s main competition shows Yang Seung‑jo campaigning alongside Park Soo‑hyun, signalling a tight primary race
Yang Seung‑jo surges to 69%53%
Joint speech at the Democratic Party’s main competition shows Yang Seung‑jo campaigning alongside Park Soo‑hyun, signalling a tight primary race
Democratic Party confirms Park Soo-hyun as Chungcheongnam-do governor candidate after primary victory
Democratic Party confirms Park Soo-hyun as Chungcheongnam-do governor candidate after primary victory
Democratic Party officially confirms Park Soo-hyun as candidate for Chungnam governor, marking the effective end of Sung Il-jong’s campaign prospects
Sung Il-jong dips to 0%1%
Democratic Party officially confirms Park Soo-hyun as candidate for Chungnam governor, marking the effective end of Sung Il-jong’s campaign prospects
| [Park Soo‑hyun rallies in Gongju, dismisses rival Chung Jin‑suk;
Kim Tae-heum drops to 2%5%
Kim Tae‑heum says he “worked with momentum”]| Park’s high‑energy campaign and media coverage further widened the gap, pushing Kim’s market
| [PPP candidate Kim Tae‑heum joins “Pan‑si and Citizens’ Rally Against the Integration of Daejeon and Chungnam”]| The integration‑opposition rally highlighted regional tensions;
Kim Tae-heum plunges to 7%16%
voters feared the merger could dilute Kim’s support base, causing a steep
Mid‑March internal polling (Mar 18‑20) indicates a dip for Park Soo‑hyun, with her support slipping below 20 %, leading to a sharp
Park Soo‑hyun plunges to 8%23%
Mid‑March internal polling (Mar 18‑20) indicates a dip for Park Soo‑hyun, with her support slipping below 20 %, leading to a sharp
Kim Tae‑heum skips filing for the governor race again, reinforcing doubts about his campaign viability
Kim Tae‑heum drops to 24%11%
Kim Tae‑heum skips filing for the governor race again, reinforcing doubts about his campaign viability
The PPP’s final candidate list was confirmed without Yoon Sang‑hyun, leading the market to collapse to 0% and stay there through May
Yoon Sang‑hyun drops to 0%7%
The PPP’s final candidate list was confirmed without Yoon Sang‑hyun, leading the market to collapse to 0% and stay there through May
People Power Party officially confirms Kim Tae‑heum as its sole candidate for Chungcheongnam governor, ending speculation and briefly lifting his odds
Kim Tae‑heum drops to 1%10%
People Power Party officially confirms Kim Tae‑heum as its sole candidate for Chungcheongnam governor, ending speculation and briefly lifting his odds
People Power Party confirms Kim Tae‑heum as the sole gubernatorial candidate for the June 3 election
Kim Tae‑heum dips to 35%3%
People Power Party confirms Kim Tae‑heum as the sole gubernatorial candidate for the June 3 election
People Power Party officially confirms Kim Tae‑heum as its sole candidate for South Chungcheong governor, ending speculation but also exposing him to a direct contest with the
Kim Tae‑heum jumps to 30%8%
People Power Party officially confirms Kim Tae‑heum as its sole candidate for South Chungcheong governor, ending speculation but also exposing him to a direct contest with the Democratic nominee
Kim Tae‑heum receives the People Power nomination for governor, prompting a brief market rally as his candidacy is solidified
Kim Tae‑heum jumps to 35%13%
Kim Tae‑heum receives the People Power nomination for governor, prompting a brief market rally as his candidacy is solidified
Market reacts to tightening primary race and emerging runoff possibility between Yang and Park
Yang Seung-jo dips to 43%3%
Market volatility as runoff became likely, reflecting uncertainty in final nomination.
People Power Party officially confirms Kim Tae‑heum as its sole candidate for South Chungcheong governor, after earlier nomination uncertainty
Kim Tae‑heum jumps to 35%13%
People Power Party officially confirms Kim Tae‑heum as its sole candidate for South Chungcheong governor, after earlier nomination uncertainty
| [People’s Power nominates incumbent Governor Kim Tae‑heum as its sole candidate for Chungcheongnam‑do]| The official PPP endorsement removed intra‑party uncertainty but
| [People’s Power nominates incumbent Governor Kim Tae‑heum as its sole candidate for Chungcheongnam‑do]| The official PPP endorsement removed intra‑party uncertainty but coincided with rising poll gaps, leading to a flat‑line then a sharp decline in the days that followed. |
Park Soo‑hyun’s victory is cemented at the party headquarters;
Kang Hoon‑sik plunges to 0%42%
analysts note Kang Hoon‑sik’s campaign has collapsed, driving the
Former DPK officials publish a report accusing Moon Jin‑seok of “misusing party resources,” reinforcing public perception of his unviability
Moon Jin‑seok jumps to 11%10%
Former DPK officials publish a report accusing Moon Jin‑seok of “misusing party resources,” reinforcing public perception of his unviability
PPP officially confirms Kim Tae‑heum as the sole candidate for South Chungcheong governor, emphasizing his “proven leadership” and industrial‑base achievements
Kim Tae‑heum dips to 5%3%
PPP officially confirms Kim Tae‑heum as the sole candidate for South Chungcheong governor, emphasizing his “proven leadership” and industrial‑base achievements
People Power Party confirms Governor Kim Tae‑heum as its sole candidate for the June 3 gubernatorial race
Kim Tae‑heum jumps to 28%11%
People Power Party confirms Governor Kim Tae‑heum as its sole candidate for the June 3 gubernatorial race
PPP nominates incumbent Daejeon Mayor Lee Jang‑woo alongside Governor Kim Tae‑heum, cementing the party’s ticket
PPP nominates incumbent Daejeon Mayor Lee Jang‑woo alongside Governor Kim Tae‑heum, cementing the party’s ticket
People Power Party opens additional nominations;
Kim Tae‑heum drops to 23%5%
Kim Tae‑heum applies for the extra South Chungcheong slot, confirming his candidacy
The Democratic Party officially announces Park Soo‑hyun’s candidacy after a runoff, confirming the party’s ticket and causing Kang Hoon‑sik’s odds to collapse to near‑zero
Kang Hoon‑sik plunges to 0%19%
The Democratic Party officially announces Park Soo‑hyun’s candidacy after a runoff, confirming the party’s ticket and causing Kang Hoon‑sik’s odds to collapse to near‑zero
Prosecutors drop the investigation into Moon Jin‑seok, clearing him of wrongdoing
Moon Jin‑seok jumps to 11%10%
Prosecutors drop the investigation into Moon Jin‑seok, clearing him of wrongdoing
People Power Party officially confirms Lee Jang‑woo and Kim Tae‑heum as its sole candidates for Daejeon mayor and Chungnam governor in the June 3 local elections
Kim Tae‑heum jumps to 33%10%
People Power Party officially confirms Lee Jang‑woo and Kim Tae‑heum as its sole candidates for Daejeon mayor and Chungnam governor in the June 3 local elections
Yang Seung-jo surges in polls amid close primary race with Park Soo-hyun
Yang Seung-jo surges to 46%29%
Strong polling results and campaign momentum led to a significant
PPP opens additional nominations;
Kim Tae‑heum jumps to 40%5%
Kim Tae‑heum signals he will apply after the Daejeon‑Chungnam integration bill is settled
People Power Party opens additional nominations for South Chungcheong;
Kim Tae‑heum plunges to 8%27%
Kim Tae‑heum announces he will apply for the extra nomination, reviving his campaign momentum
Market reacts to Park Soo-hyun's growing lead in polls and campaign strength
Yoon Sang-hyun plunges to 0%30%
Polls showing Park Soo-hyun leading incumbent Kim Tae-heum by double digits led to a collapse in Yoon Sang-hyun's market
The Chungnam Election Commission opened preliminary registration for county‑governor candidates, signalling the start of the formal nomination window and prompting speculation
Moon Jin‑seok rises to 36%4%
The Chungnam Election Commission opened preliminary registration for county‑governor candidates, signalling the start of the formal nomination window and prompting speculation that Moon Jin‑seok would not file
Market reacts sharply to Democratic Party’s final candidate selection and internal dynamics, causing Sung Il-jong’s
Sung Il-jong drops to 1%10%
Market reacts sharply to Democratic Party’s final candidate selection and internal dynamics, causing Sung Il-jong’s
Yoon Sang‑hyun appeared on a news program criticizing the PPP’s candidate‑selection process, which was interpreted as a possible last‑minute challenge and caused a short‑term rise
Yoon Sang‑hyun jumps to 7%5%
Yoon Sang‑hyun appeared on a news program criticizing the PPP’s candidate‑selection process, which was interpreted as a possible last‑minute challenge and caused a short‑term rise to 7%
Kim Tae‑heum skips filing for the governor race, citing the unfinished integration bill, causing a sharp
Kim Tae‑heum drops to 26%14%
Kim Tae‑heum skips filing for the governor race, citing the unfinished integration bill, causing a sharp
PPP heavyweights Oh Se‑hoon and Kim Tae‑heum skip filing for the governor race, citing the unfinished Daejeon‑Chungnam integration bill, creating uncertainty about his candidacy
Kim Tae‑heum dips to 22%1%
PPP heavyweights Oh Se‑hoon and Kim Tae‑heum skip filing for the governor race, citing the unfinished Daejeon‑Chungnam integration bill, creating uncertainty about his candidacy
Kim Tae‑heum skips filing a nomination for the governor race, citing the unfinished Daejeon‑Chungnam integration bill, which fuels market doubts about his candidacy
Kim Tae‑heum plunges to 11%24%
Kim Tae‑heum skips filing a nomination for the governor race, citing the unfinished Daejeon‑Chungnam integration bill, which fuels market doubts about his candidacy
PPP heavyweights Oh Se‑hoon and Governor Kim Tae‑heum skip filing for the gubernatorial race, citing the pending Daejeon‑Chungnam integration bill;
Kim Tae‑heum jumps to 35%13%
the move fuels speculation that Kim may withdraw
Kim Tae‑heum signs a KRW 1 trillion (≈ $674 m) MoU with Singapore’s Vena Group for large‑scale green‑energy projects in Taean County
Kim Tae‑heum surges to 38%16%
Kim Tae‑heum signs a KRW 1 trillion (≈ $674 m) MoU with Singapore’s Vena Group for large‑scale green‑energy projects in Taean County
Park Soo-hyun wins Democratic Party nomination runoff, further sidelining Yoon Sang-hyun
Yoon Sang-hyun surges to 30%28%
Park Soo-hyun wins Democratic Party nomination runoff, further sidelining Yoon Sang-hyun
Kim Tae‑heum reiterates the need for a National Assembly special committee to advance the integration plan, signaling continued focus on the controversial bill
Kim Tae‑heum drops to 17%9%
Kim Tae‑heum reiterates the need for a National Assembly special committee to advance the integration plan, signaling continued focus on the controversial bill
Democratic Party consolidates candidate nominations for Chungcheongnam-do local elections, sidelining Kang Hoon-sik
Democratic Party consolidates candidate nominations for Chungcheongnam-do local elections, sidelining Kang Hoon-sik
Moon Jin‑seok’s legal team files a defamation suit against the newspaper that broke the fundraising story – The lawsuit suggested the allegations might be unfounded, giving the
Moon Jin‑seok jumps to 12%9%
Moon Jin‑seok’s legal team files a defamation suit against the newspaper that broke the fundraising story – The lawsuit suggested the allegations might be unfounded, giving the market a brief rebound.
Brief market rebound to 29% possibly due to speculation or news about Moon Jin-seok’s campaign efforts or endorsements, but no major breakthrough
Moon Jin-seok surges to 29%26%
Brief market rebound to 29% possibly due to speculation or news about Moon Jin-seok’s campaign efforts or endorsements, but no major breakthrough
Democratic Party final‑round primary results confirm Park Soo‑hyun as the official governor candidate, effectively ending Kang Hoon‑sik’s bid and sending his
Kang Hoon‑sik plunges to 42%21%
Democratic Party final‑round primary results confirm Park Soo‑hyun as the official governor candidate, effectively ending Kang Hoon‑sik’s bid and sending his
Moon Jin‑seok’s earlier support for Kim Yong resurfaced in a parliamentary debate, drawing criticism from rival party factions and causing a sharp sell‑off on his outcome
Moon Jin‑seok jumps to 12%9%
Moon Jin‑seok’s earlier support for Kim Yong resurfaced in a parliamentary debate, drawing criticism from rival party factions and causing a sharp sell‑off on his outcome
Park Soo-hyun’s nomination solidifies within the Democratic Party, further diminishing Sung Il-jong’s market support as opposition consolidates
Sung Il-jong surges to 22%20%
Park Soo-hyun’s nomination solidifies within the Democratic Party, further diminishing Sung Il-jong’s market support as opposition consolidates
Moon Jin‑seok formally withdraws his candidacy for the Chungcheongnam‑do governorship, citing “personal reasons” after party pressure
Moon Jin‑seok formally withdraws his candidacy for the Chungcheongnam‑do governorship, citing “personal reasons” after party pressure
Democratic Party’s final candidate lineup solidifies with Park Soo-hyun’s nomination, causing a sharp drop in Moon Jin-seok’s market
Moon Jin-seok plunges to 3%28%
Democratic Party’s final candidate lineup solidifies with Park Soo-hyun’s nomination, causing a sharp drop in Moon Jin-seok’s market
Moon Jin‑seok publicly apologises and announces he will suspend his campaign pending the investigation’s outcome
Moon Jin‑seok surges to 30%27%
Moon Jin‑seok publicly apologises and announces he will suspend his campaign pending the investigation’s outcome
Kim Tae‑heum publicly denounces the ruling party’s “bogus” integration bill, positioning himself as a defender of regional autonomy
Kim Tae‑heum drops to 22%6%
Kim Tae‑heum publicly denounces the ruling party’s “bogus” integration bill, positioning himself as a defender of regional autonomy
Governor Kim Tae‑heum and Mayor Lee Jang‑woo publicly reject the ruling party’s “bogus” integration bill, demanding a bipartisan committee
Kim Tae‑heum drops to 26%10%
Governor Kim Tae‑heum and Mayor Lee Jang‑woo publicly reject the ruling party’s “bogus” integration bill, demanding a bipartisan committee
Kim Tae‑heum and Daejeon Mayor Lee Jang‑woo criticize the Democratic Party’s “bogus” integration bill and call for a bipartisan committee, casting the integration issue as a
Kim Tae‑heum dips to 23%1%
Kim Tae‑heum and Daejeon Mayor Lee Jang‑woo criticize the Democratic Party’s “bogus” integration bill and call for a bipartisan committee, casting the integration issue as a political liability
Kim Tae‑heum and Daejeon Mayor Lee Jang‑woo publicly denounce the Democratic Party’s “bogus” integration bill, demanding a bipartisan committee – a move that sparked criticism and
Kim Tae‑heum drops to 26%10%
Kim Tae‑heum and Daejeon Mayor Lee Jang‑woo publicly denounce the Democratic Party’s “bogus” integration bill, demanding a bipartisan committee – a move that sparked criticism and a dip in his support
Kang Hoon‑sik meets Qatar’s Trade Minister to discuss AI and semiconductor investment, highlighting his national‑level profile and briefly reviving market confidence
Kang Hoon‑sik surges to 47%18%
Kang Hoon‑sik meets Qatar’s Trade Minister to discuss AI and semiconductor investment, highlighting his national‑level profile and briefly reviving market confidence
A leaked internal memo suggests Kang Hoon‑sik could be the “bridge” candidate for the merged Daejeon‑Chungcheongnam entity, pushing his odds to a market‑high
Kang Hoon‑sik surges to 63%28%
A leaked internal memo suggests Kang Hoon‑sik could be the “bridge” candidate for the merged Daejeon‑Chungcheongnam entity, pushing his odds to a market‑high
The PPP officially nominated incumbent Kim Tae‑heum, ending Yoon Sang‑hyun’s speculation and sending the
Yoon Sang‑hyun plunges to 2%30%
The PPP officially nominated incumbent Kim Tae‑heum, ending Yoon Sang‑hyun’s speculation and sending the
A nationwide poll (TJB) shows Park Soo‑hyun leading incumbent Kim Tae‑heum by double‑digits, boosting confidence in her candidacy
Park Soo-hyun rises to 37%2%
A nationwide poll (TJB) shows Park Soo‑hyun leading incumbent Kim Tae‑heum by double‑digits, boosting confidence in her candidacy
A poll released by the Democratic Party’s internal research unit showed Moon Jin‑seok trailing far behind the leading candidates, reinforcing market doubts about his viability
Moon Jin‑seok plunges to 4%32%
A poll released by the Democratic Party’s internal research unit showed Moon Jin‑seok trailing far behind the leading candidates, reinforcing market doubts about his viability
Democratic Party confirms Park Soo-hyun as a strong candidate for Chungcheongnam governor
Yoon Sang-hyun drops to 2%12%
Park Soo-hyun's rise as the Democratic Party candidate diminished Yoon Sang-hyun's appeal, as she became the dominant opposition figure against the incumbent party.
The party’s central committee announces Kang Hoon‑sik remains in contention for the gubernatorial nomination, sparking a rapid rebound
Kang Hoon‑sik surges to 35%24%
The party’s central committee announces Kang Hoon‑sik remains in contention for the gubernatorial nomination, sparking a rapid rebound
A leaked internal PPP memo suggested Yoon Sang‑hyun might be reconsidered as a “unity candidate” after other hopefuls faltered, briefly reviving his odds to 32%
Yoon Sang‑hyun surges to 32%30%
A leaked internal PPP memo suggested Yoon Sang‑hyun might be reconsidered as a “unity candidate” after other hopefuls faltered, briefly reviving his odds to 32%
Democratic Party primary voting begins for Chungcheongnam governor with Yang Seung-jo as a leading candidate
Yang Seung-jo dips to 17%3%
Start of primary voting caused volatility as Yang competed with Park Soo-hyun and others, reflecting uncertainty.
Moon Jin‑seok is implicated in a scandal over alleged misuse of party funds;
Moon Jin‑seok plunges to 7%30%
prosecutors launch a preliminary investigation
Moon Jin‑seok’s campaign announces a major fundraising scandal involving illegal donations – Allegations of illicit campaign financing caused a dramatic plunge, wiping out most of
Moon Jin‑seok plunges to 3%30%
Moon Jin‑seok’s campaign announces a major fundraising scandal involving illegal donations – Allegations of illicit campaign financing caused a dramatic plunge, wiping out most of his market value.
A leaked internal DPK memo recommends dropping Moon Jin‑seok from the official governor ticket to avoid further scandal fallout
Moon Jin‑seok plunges to 3%30%
A leaked internal DPK memo recommends dropping Moon Jin‑seok from the official governor ticket to avoid further scandal fallout
Opposition lawmakers file a “special bill” to block the Daejeon‑Chungcheong merger, arguing it is a ploy to promote Kang Hoon‑sik;
Kang Hoon‑sik drops to 29%12%
the backlash reduces his perceived viability
Rumors surface that the Democratic Party will drop Kang Hoon‑sik in favor of former governor Yang Seung‑jo, leading to a sharp
Kang Hoon‑sik plunges to 11%23%
Rumors surface that the Democratic Party will drop Kang Hoon‑sik in favor of former governor Yang Seung‑jo, leading to a sharp
Media reports that Kang Hoon‑sik is being floated by senior party officials as a “strategic” candidate to challenge the incumbent People Power governor, causing a sharp
Kang Hoon‑sik jumps to 41%7%
Media reports that Kang Hoon‑sik is being floated by senior party officials as a “strategic” candidate to challenge the incumbent People Power governor, causing a sharp
A Cho Won C&I poll released (Feb 11‑12) shows Park Soo‑hyun at 42.2 % in Chungnam versus 29.5 % for incumbent Kim Tae‑heum, prompting a modest rise in her market
Park Soo‑hyun rises to 36%2%
A Cho Won C&I poll released (Feb 11‑12) shows Park Soo‑hyun at 42.2 % in Chungnam versus 29.5 % for incumbent Kim Tae‑heum, prompting a modest rise in her market
Yang Seung‑jo’s 17% implied probability falls to 32% as Park Soo‑hyun’s lead rises
Yang Seung‑jo surges to 32%15%
Yang Seung‑jo’s 17% implied probability falls to 32% as Park Soo‑hyun’s lead rises
After Yoon Sang‑hyun failed to secure enough primary endorsements and withdrew his candidacy, the market dropped sharply to 2%
Yoon Sang‑hyun plunges to 2%31%
After Yoon Sang‑hyun failed to secure enough primary endorsements and withdrew his candidacy, the market dropped sharply to 2%
Democratic Party announces main candidates for Chungnam governor race, including Park Soo-hyun and Yang Seung-jo, solidifying competition and reducing Sung Il-jong’s chances
Sung Il-jong plunges to 2%20%
Democratic Party announces main candidates for Chungnam governor race, including Park Soo-hyun and Yang Seung-jo, solidifying competition and reducing Sung Il-jong’s chances
“Democratic Party Surge, People Power Party Shortage” article highlights a surge in DP support in Chungcheong‑Nam, boosting Yang’s chances in the primary
Yang Seung‑jo dips to 18%2%
“Democratic Party Surge, People Power Party Shortage” article highlights a surge in DP support in Chungcheong‑Nam, boosting Yang’s chances in the primary
Yang Seung‑jo’s 18% odds fall to 17% after Park Soo‑hyun’s lead
Yang Seung‑jo dips to 17%1%
Yang Seung‑jo’s 18% odds fall to 17% after Park Soo‑hyun’s lead
Polls show Moon Jin‑seok slipping to third place behind the ruling party’s candidate – New polling data dampened expectations, triggering a modest
Moon Jin‑seok drops to 28%5%
Polls show Moon Jin‑seok slipping to third place behind the ruling party’s candidate – New polling data dampened expectations, triggering a modest
| [Democratic Party confirms Park Soo‑hyun as its Chungcheongnam‑do governor candidate after a runoff]| Park’s victory in the Democratic primary gave the opposition a clear
Kim Tae-heum jumps to 28%11%
| [Democratic Party confirms Park Soo‑hyun as its Chungcheongnam‑do governor candidate after a runoff]| Park’s victory in the Democratic primary gave the opposition a clear challenger, temporarily lifting Kim’s odds as the race appeared more competitive. |
Yang Seung‑jo’s 18% implied probability drops as Park Soo‑hyun secures 18%
Yang Seung‑jo’s 18% implied probability drops as Park Soo‑hyun secures 18%
Park Soo‑hyun appears at a joint candidate meeting in the National Assembly, emphasizing she can win even if former PPP lawmaker Chung Jin‑seok runs in a by‑election, which
Park Soo‑hyun jumps to 35%12%
Park Soo‑hyun appears at a joint candidate meeting in the National Assembly, emphasizing she can win even if former PPP lawmaker Chung Jin‑seok runs in a by‑election, which steadied her support after earlier primary uncertainty
Democratic Party finalises Park Soo‑hyun’s nomination as its Chungcheongnam‑do governor candidate, setting up a high‑profile showdown with incumbent Kim Tae‑heum
Kim Tae‑heum drops to 28%5%
Democratic Party finalises Park Soo‑hyun’s nomination as its Chungcheongnam‑do governor candidate, setting up a high‑profile showdown with incumbent Kim Tae‑heum
Democratic Party’s internal primary results show Park Soo‑hyun winning the June 3 primary decisively, confirming the party’s front‑runner and sending Kang Hoon‑sik’s odds down
Kang Hoon‑sik dips to 34%1%
Democratic Party’s internal primary results show Park Soo‑hyun winning the June 3 primary decisively, confirming the party’s front‑runner and sending Kang Hoon‑sik’s odds down
Yang Seung‑jo’s 25% vote share ties with Park Soo‑hyun’s 25% in final round
Yang Seung‑jo’s 25% vote share ties with Park Soo‑hyun’s 25% in final round
Yoon Sang‑hyun announced he would seek the PPP’s nomination for Chungnam governor, prompting a surge to 33% as his campaign entered the primary race
Yoon Sang‑hyun drops to 33%5%
Yoon Sang‑hyun announced he would seek the PPP’s nomination for Chungnam governor, prompting a surge to 33% as his campaign entered the primary race
People Power Party opens additional nominations for South Chungcheong;
Kim Tae‑heum confirms he will apply for the extra nomination, signalling his intent to run again
Moon Jin‑seok wins a closed‑door party poll among DPK members, temporarily restoring his standing as a possible gubernatorial contender
Moon Jin‑seok rises to 37%4%
Moon Jin‑seok wins a closed‑door party poll among DPK members, temporarily restoring his standing as a possible gubernatorial contender
Moon Jin‑seok briefly appeared in a televised town‑hall meeting, presenting a new policy platform that lifted his odds temporarily
Moon Jin‑seok rises to 38%1%
Moon Jin‑seok briefly appeared in a televised town‑hall meeting, presenting a new policy platform that lifted his odds temporarily
Moon Jin‑seok wins the Democratic Party’s internal poll with 38% support, overtaking rival Park Soo‑hyun
Moon Jin‑seok jumps to 38%7%
Moon Jin‑seok wins the Democratic Party’s internal poll with 38% support, overtaking rival Park Soo‑hyun
Moon Jin‑seok wins a televised debate, outperforming rival candidates – Strong debate performance revived confidence in his electability, driving the
Moon Jin‑seok jumps to 37%6%
Moon Jin‑seok wins a televised debate, outperforming rival candidates – Strong debate performance revived confidence in his electability, driving the
Park Soo‑hyun secures a major endorsement from former governor Yang Seung‑jo, signaling party unity
Park Soo-hyun jumps to 37%14%
Park Soo‑hyun secures a major endorsement from former governor Yang Seung‑jo, signaling party unity
Park Soo‑hyun’s 25% vote share beats Yang Seung‑jo’s 25% in runoff
Park Soo‑hyun’s 25% vote share beats Yang Seung‑jo’s 25% in runoff
Democratic Party confirms separate nominations for Daejeon mayor and Chungnam governor, effectively ending prospects for integration and weakening Sung Il-jong’s position tied to
Sung Il-jong drops to 14%9%
Democratic Party confirms separate nominations for Daejeon mayor and Chungnam governor, effectively ending prospects for integration and weakening Sung Il-jong’s position tied to the merger agenda
Yoon Sang-hyun's prospects weaken as other candidates solidify their positions in the People Power Party
Yoon Sang-hyun drops to 27%10%
Other candidates like incumbent Kim Tae-heum and party figures gained momentum, reducing Yoon's chances.
Kim Tae‑heum opens export channels in Singapore, showcasing 25 local firms and promising new trade ties
Kim Tae‑heum jumps to 28%11%
Kim Tae‑heum opens export channels in Singapore, showcasing 25 local firms and promising new trade ties
People Power Party opens additional nominations for Seoul and South Chungcheong, confirming that incumbent Governor Kim Tae‑heum will apply for the Chungnam ticket
Kim Tae‑heum jumps to 28%10%
People Power Party opens additional nominations for Seoul and South Chungcheong, confirming that incumbent Governor Kim Tae‑heum will apply for the Chungnam ticket
Yoon Sang‑hyun publicly urged PPP leadership to “take decisive action” at a Supreme Council meeting in Incheon, signalling his ambition to run and lifting the
Yoon Sang‑hyun jumps to 38%11%
Yoon Sang‑hyun publicly urged PPP leadership to “take decisive action” at a Supreme Council meeting in Incheon, signalling his ambition to run and lifting the
Kim Tae‑heum declines to file for the governor nomination, citing the pending integration bill as “inappropriate” to run before it is finalized
Kim Tae‑heum surges to 33%15%
Kim Tae‑heum declines to file for the governor nomination, citing the pending integration bill as “inappropriate” to run before it is finalized
Governor Kim Tae‑heum touts 12 trillion won of government funding and 45 trillion won of private investment secured for Chungnam, highlighting his “AI Grand Transformation” agenda
Kim Tae‑heum jumps to 31%8%
Governor Kim Tae‑heum touts 12 trillion won of government funding and 45 trillion won of private investment secured for Chungnam, highlighting his “AI Grand Transformation” agenda
Yang Seung‑jo’s odds fall to 1% after Park Soo‑hyun’s victory
Yang Seung‑jo plunges to 1%25%
Yang Seung‑jo’s odds fall to 1% after Park Soo‑hyun’s victory
Kim Tae‑heum and Daejeon mayor Lee Jang‑woo meet to push the Daejeon‑South Chungcheong administrative merger, sparking local opposition
Kim Tae‑heum drops to 17%7%
Kim Tae‑heum and Daejeon mayor Lee Jang‑woo meet to push the Daejeon‑South Chungcheong administrative merger, sparking local opposition
People Power Party opens additional nominations for Seoul and South Chungcheong;
Kim Tae‑heum rises to 26%3%
Kim Tae‑heum signals he will apply for the extra nomination, hinting at uncertainty about his candidacy
A poll released by TJB showed PPP’s incumbent governor Kim Tae‑heum leading comfortably, prompting traders to view Yoon Sang‑hyun’s candidacy as unlikely and driving the
Yoon Sang‑hyun surges to 27%25%
A poll released by TJB showed PPP’s incumbent governor Kim Tae‑heum leading comfortably, prompting traders to view Yoon Sang‑hyun’s candidacy as unlikely and driving the
The National Election Commission announces stricter candidate‑eligibility checks;
Moon Jin‑seok rises to 33%4%
Moon Jin‑seok is listed for additional scrutiny, dampening optimism
Yoon Sang-hyun fails to gain significant traction amid party nomination controversies
Yoon Sang-hyun surges to 42%40%
Despite a low point earlier in December, a brief surge occurred possibly due to rumors or attempts to enter the race, but no formal nomination was secured, causing volatility.
Sung Il-jong publicly criticizes the Democratic Party for copying his Daejeon-Chungnam Special City bill, asserting his legislative leadership on integration, which initially
Sung Il-jong jumps to 23%7%
Sung Il-jong publicly criticizes the Democratic Party for copying his Daejeon-Chungnam Special City bill, asserting his legislative leadership on integration, which initially bolsters his profile
Moon Jin‑seok’s lawyer releases a statement denying wrongdoing and pledging to “clear his name,” prompting a brief rally in his favor
Moon Jin‑seok surges to 29%15%
Moon Jin‑seok’s lawyer releases a statement denying wrongdoing and pledging to “clear his name,” prompting a brief rally in his favor
Kim Tae‑heum and Daejeon Mayor Lee Jang‑woo publicly criticize the Democratic Party’s new integration proposal, stressing bill content over politics
Kim Tae‑heum plunges to 23%26%
Kim Tae‑heum and Daejeon Mayor Lee Jang‑woo publicly criticize the Democratic Party’s new integration proposal, stressing bill content over politics
Kim Tae‑heum and Daejeon Mayor Lee Jang‑woo criticize the Democratic Party’s new “integration” proposal, stressing policy over politics
Kim Tae‑heum drops to 24%7%
Kim Tae‑heum and Daejeon Mayor Lee Jang‑woo criticize the Democratic Party’s new “integration” proposal, stressing policy over politics
People Power Party holds its first meeting on the Chungnam‑Daejeon merger;
Kim Tae‑heum drops to 26%10%
Kim Tae‑heum’s joint declaration with Daejeon Mayor Lee Jang‑woo is cited as the bill’s origin, prompting speculation about his electoral base
PPP lawmaker Sung Il‑jong cites Governor Kim Tae‑heum’s joint declaration with Daejeon Mayor Lee Jang‑woo as the basis for a “Daejeon‑Chungnam Special City” bill
Kim Tae‑heum jumps to 31%8%
PPP lawmaker Sung Il‑jong cites Governor Kim Tae‑heum’s joint declaration with Daejeon Mayor Lee Jang‑woo as the basis for a “Daejeon‑Chungnam Special City” bill
Yang Seung‑jo receives 40% implied probability in poll, Park Soo‑hyun leads
Yang Seung‑jo jumps to 40%14%
Yang Seung‑jo receives 40% implied probability in poll, Park Soo‑hyun leads
| [People Power Party nominates Lee Jang‑woo and Kim Tae‑heum for Daejeon mayor and Chungcheongnam governor]| The formal nomination signaled a single‑candidate race for the PPP,
Kim Tae-heum drops to 36%13%
| [People Power Party nominates Lee Jang‑woo and Kim Tae‑heum for Daejeon mayor and Chungcheongnam governor]| The formal nomination signaled a single‑candidate race for the PPP, but early polling showed the opposition ahead, prompting a modest drop. |
Moon Jin‑seok was named a potential “dark horse” in a Seoul Economic Daily analysis of the upcoming Chungcheongnam‑do race, prompting a modest
Moon Jin‑seok rises to 32%3%
Moon Jin‑seok was named a potential “dark horse” in a Seoul Economic Daily analysis of the upcoming Chungcheongnam‑do race, prompting a modest
Media reports link Yang Seung‑jo to the integration debate, suggesting he could become the unified region’s governor
Yang Seung‑jo drops to 26%14%
Media reports link Yang Seung‑jo to the integration debate, suggesting he could become the unified region’s governor
Prosecutors launch formal investigation into Moon Jin‑seok’s alleged influence‑peddling, filing a subpoena for his communications records
Moon Jin‑seok rises to 14%1%
Prosecutors launch formal investigation into Moon Jin‑seok’s alleged influence‑peddling, filing a subpoena for his communications records
Moon Jin‑seok’s party issues a statement defending his actions amid the influence‑peddling controversy – The Democratic Party’s partial defence slowed the
Moon Jin‑seok drops to 9%5%
Moon Jin‑seok’s party issues a statement defending his actions amid the influence‑peddling controversy – The Democratic Party’s partial defence slowed the
Yang Seung‑jo’s implied probability drops to near zero as Park Soo‑hyun’s nomination solidifies
Yang Seung‑jo plunges to 0%32%
Yang Seung‑jo’s implied probability drops to near zero as Park Soo‑hyun’s nomination solidifies
Democratic Party confirms Park Soo-hyun as candidate for Chungcheongnam-do governor after primary rounds, reducing Moon Jin-seok’s chances as Park is a strong contender
Moon Jin-seok jumps to 15%5%
Democratic Party confirms Park Soo-hyun as candidate for Chungcheongnam-do governor after primary rounds, reducing Moon Jin-seok’s chances as Park is a strong contender
Park Soo‑hyun wins the first primary round, beating several local politicians and becoming the early favorite
Park Soo-hyun surges to 24%21%
Park Soo‑hyun wins the first primary round, beating several local politicians and becoming the early favorite
President Lee Jae-myung holds town hall on Daejeon-Chungnam integration, raising Yang Seung-jo's profile
Yang Seung-jo jumps to 32%7%
Discussions on regional integration elevated Yang's political relevance as a former governor, briefly boosting his market odds.
President Lee Jae‑myung holds a town‑hall meeting on Daejeon‑Chungnam integration, with Governor Kim Tae‑heum publicly supporting the “integration clock” concept, raising doubts
Kim Tae‑heum jumps to 36%5%
President Lee Jae‑myung holds a town‑hall meeting on Daejeon‑Chungnam integration, with Governor Kim Tae‑heum publicly supporting the “integration clock” concept, raising doubts about his standalone appeal
, President Lee Jae-myung held a Town Hall Meeting in Cheonan, Chungcheongnam-do, discussing regional integration plans, with Kang Hoon-sik's name mentioned among potential
Kang Hoon-sik jumps to 35%13%
, President Lee Jae-myung held a Town Hall Meeting in Cheonan, Chungcheongnam-do, discussing regional integration plans, with Kang Hoon-sik's name mentioned among potential candidates amid political maneuvering in the province.
Democratic Party leadership holds emergency meeting and suspends Moon Jin‑seok from floor‑leader duties, signalling loss of party support
Moon Jin‑seok rises to 13%1%
Democratic Party leadership holds emergency meeting and suspends Moon Jin‑seok from floor‑leader duties, signalling loss of party support
President Lee Jae-myung holds Town Hall Meeting in Cheonan discussing Chungnam-Daejeon integration;
Kang Hoon-sik mentioned among potential candidates
President Lee Jae-myung holds a Town Hall Meeting on the integration of Chungnam and Daejeon, increasing attention on candidates for the integrated local government and raising
Sung Il-jong jumps to 32%9%
President Lee Jae-myung holds a Town Hall Meeting on the integration of Chungnam and Daejeon, increasing attention on candidates for the integrated local government and raising the political stakes
President Lee Jae‑myung’s Daejeon‑Chungnam integration town‑hall meeting raises Yang Seung‑jo’s profile as a possible head of a merged administration
Yang Seung‑jo jumps to 47%13%
President Lee Jae‑myung’s Daejeon‑Chungnam integration town‑hall meeting raises Yang Seung‑jo’s profile as a possible head of a merged administration
Park Soo‑hyun wins Democratic Party nomination, beating former Governor Yang Seung‑jo
Park Soo‑hyun wins Democratic Party nomination, beating former Governor Yang Seung‑jo
Kim Tae‑heum secures 22.8 billion won in national RISE funding for university reforms
Kim Tae‑heum drops to 24%12%
Kim Tae‑heum secures 22.8 billion won in national RISE funding for university reforms
Park Soo‑hyun defeats Yang Seung‑jo in runoff; 33% vote share
Yang Seung‑jo plunges to 33%16%
Park Soo‑hyun defeats Yang Seung‑jo in runoff; 33% vote share
Reform Party leader Lee Jun-seok announces Cho Eung-chun’s bid for Gyeonggi governor, signaling a competitive multi-party environment and weakening prospects for candidates like
Moon Jin-seok plunges to 11%37%
Reform Party leader Lee Jun-seok announces Cho Eung-chun’s bid for Gyeonggi governor, signaling a competitive multi-party environment and weakening prospects for candidates like Moon Jin-seok by association with weaker opposition forces
Park Soo‑hyun rejects a “re‑election” conspiracy theory during a party‑amendment debate, calming intra‑party tensions and briefly boosting confidence in her candidacy
Park Soo‑hyun plunges to 3%45%
Park Soo‑hyun rejects a “re‑election” conspiracy theory during a party‑amendment debate, calming intra‑party tensions and briefly boosting confidence in her candidacy
An early‑season opinion poll released by a local research institute gave Moon Jin‑seok a surprisingly low 7 % support level, triggering the market’s first major dip
Moon Jin‑seok plunges to 11%37%
An early‑season opinion poll released by a local research institute gave Moon Jin‑seok a surprisingly low 7 % support level, triggering the market’s first major dip
People Power Party nominates incumbent Kim Tae‑heum as its sole candidate for South Chungcheong governor
Kim Tae‑heum drops to 36%13%
People Power Party nominates incumbent Kim Tae‑heum as its sole candidate for South Chungcheong governor
Democratic Party of Korea announces primary candidates for Chungcheongnam governor including Yang Seung-jo and Park Soo-hyun
Yang Seung-jo plunges to 32%17%
The party confirmed Yang Seung-jo among candidates for the June 2026 election, initiating the primary race and causing initial market adjustments.
Democratic Party selects Park Soo‑hyun & former Governor Yang Seung‑jo as runoff candidates for Chungcheongnam Governor race
Yang Seung‑jo plunges to 1%48%
Democratic Party selects Park Soo‑hyun & former Governor Yang Seung‑jo as runoff candidates for Chungcheongnam Governor race
Launch of the Chungcheongnam Province Governor Election market on Polymarket with Moon Jin-seok initially favored at 48%
Launch of the Chungcheongnam Province Governor Election market on Polymarket with Moon Jin-seok initially favored at 48%
Market launch with initial optimism for Yoon Sang-hyun's candidacy
The market launched with Yoon Sang-hyun as a notable candidate, reflecting initial interest and speculation about his potential to win the governorship.
Sung Il-jong and 44 other People's Power members propose a "special bill for the establishment of Daejeon Chungcheongnam-do and the creation of an economic science school,"
Sung Il-jong plunges to 30%19%
Sung Il-jong and 44 other People's Power members propose a "special bill for the establishment of Daejeon Chungcheongnam-do and the creation of an economic science school," signaling his active role in regional integration efforts
Democratic Party opens the primary race for Chungcheongnam‑do governor, with Rep.
Park Soo-hyun plunges to 3%45%
Park Soo‑hyun listed among the front‑runners
Governor Kim Tae‑heum unveils a 50‑000‑seat dome stadium project near Cheonan‑Asan Station, highlighting a major infrastructure pledge to boost regional development
Kim Tae‑heum plunges to 23%26%
Governor Kim Tae‑heum unveils a 50‑000‑seat dome stadium project near Cheonan‑Asan Station, highlighting a major infrastructure pledge to boost regional development
Kang Hoon-sik appointed presidential chief of staff by President Lee Jae-myung, resigning parliamentary seat in Asan-B, South Chungcheong Province
Kang Hoon-sik appointed presidential chief of staff by President Lee Jae-myung, resigning parliamentary seat in Asan-B, South Chungcheong Province
Former deputy speaker Chung Jin‑suk (no relation) publicly endorses the DPK’s new candidate, further marginalising Moon Jin‑seok – The endorsement reinforced the market’s
Former deputy speaker Chung Jin‑suk (no relation) publicly endorses the DPK’s new candidate, further marginalising Moon Jin‑seok – The endorsement reinforced the market’s assessment that Moon has no realistic path to victory.
DPK nominates former mayor Kim Jae‑ho as its official candidate for Chungcheongnam‑do governor, sidelining Moon Jin‑seok completely – The final party nomination cemented Moon’s
DPK nominates former mayor Kim Jae‑ho as its official candidate for Chungcheongnam‑do governor, sidelining Moon Jin‑seok completely – The final party nomination cemented Moon’s exclusion, keeping the
Moon Jin‑seok issues a formal apology for the personnel‑request controversy and steps down from the floor‑leader post – The MK report of his resignation and apology drove the
Moon Jin‑seok plunges to 0%23%
Moon Jin‑seok issues a formal apology for the personnel‑request controversy and steps down from the floor‑leader post – The MK report of his resignation and apology drove the
Moon Jin‑seok announces he will not run for governor, focusing on national party leadership – The clarification removed uncertainty, lifting the
Moon Jin‑seok jumps to 23%10%
Moon Jin‑seok announces he will not run for governor, focusing on national party leadership – The clarification removed uncertainty, lifting the
DPK’s internal ethics committee clears Moon Jin‑seok of formal misconduct – A brief procedural win gave the market a modest rebound.
Moon Jin‑seok jumps to 13%10%
DPK’s internal ethics committee clears Moon Jin‑seok of formal misconduct – A brief procedural win gave the market a modest rebound.
Moon Jin‑seok apologises in a televised statement for the influence‑peddling incident – The apology failed to restore credibility, keeping the
Moon Jin‑seok dips to 3%4%
Moon Jin‑seok apologises in a televised statement for the influence‑peddling incident – The apology failed to restore credibility, keeping the
Influence‑peddling video of Moon Jin‑seok surfaces, showing him pressuring a senior official for a private‑sector appointment – The scandal (reported by The Korea Times) caused
Moon Jin‑seok plunges to 7%15%
Influence‑peddling video of Moon Jin‑seok surfaces, showing him pressuring a senior official for a private‑sector appointment – The scandal (reported by The Korea Times) caused the biggest single‑day drop in February.
Moon Jin‑seok publicly endorses former governor Kim Tae‑heum for Chungcheongnam‑do governor – The endorsement was interpreted as a retreat from his own run, prompting a sharp
Moon Jin‑seok drops to 22%12%
Moon Jin‑seok publicly endorses former governor Kim Tae‑heum for Chungcheongnam‑do governor – The endorsement was interpreted as a retreat from his own run, prompting a sharp decline.
Moon Jin‑seok named chief floor‑leader of the DPK in the National Assembly – His elevation to a key parliamentary position signaled a stronger campaign platform, nudging the
Moon Jin‑seok dips to 34%4%
Moon Jin‑seok named chief floor‑leader of the DPK in the National Assembly – His elevation to a key parliamentary position signaled a stronger campaign platform, nudging the
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