Trader consensus heavily favors the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance at 79% implied probability to win the most seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election on April 23, driven by incumbency under Chief Minister M.K. Stalin and recent opinion polls projecting a landslide. The Lok Poll survey from April 1 forecasts SPA securing 181-189 of 234 seats with 40.1% vote share, well above the 118-seat majority, citing Stalin's 41% chief minister preference lead. Finalized seat-sharing—DMK on 164-175 seats, Congress 28—bolsters cohesion, while AIADMK-led NDA (16% odds) lags at 38-42 seats per the poll despite allocating 166-172 to AIADMK and 26-33 to BJP. Debutant TVK (5.9%) contests solo across all constituencies but polls show limited traction at 8-10 seats amid mixed voter sentiment. Nomination scrutiny on April 7 and intensified campaigning could influence dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日DMK 79%
ADMK 16.0%
TVK 5.8%
NCP <1%
$252,117 Vol.
$252,117 Vol.
2026/04/23
DMK
79%
ADMK
16%
TVK
6%
NCP
<1%
CPI(M)
<1%
INC
<1%
AITC
<1%
DMDK
<1%
バフジャン・サマジ党（BSP）
<1%
CPI
<1%
NPEP
<1%
インド人民党（BJP）
<1%
DMK 79%
ADMK 16.0%
TVK 5.8%
NCP <1%
$252,117 Vol.
$252,117 Vol.
2026/04/23
DMK
$26,145 Vol.
79%
ADMK
$23,045 Vol.
16%
TVK
$39,023 Vol.
6%
NCP
$14,906 Vol.
<1%
CPI(M)
$36,518 Vol.
<1%
INC
$27,060 Vol.
<1%
AITC
$18,827 Vol.
<1%
DMDK
$12,329 Vol.
<1%
バフジャン・サマジ党（BSP）
$12,144 Vol.
<1%
CPI
$13,064 Vol.
<1%
NPEP
$12,372 Vol.
<1%
インド人民党（BJP）
$16,687 Vol.
<1%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Trader consensus heavily favors the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance at 79% implied probability to win the most seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election on April 23, driven by incumbency under Chief Minister M.K. Stalin and recent opinion polls projecting a landslide. The Lok Poll survey from April 1 forecasts SPA securing 181-189 of 234 seats with 40.1% vote share, well above the 118-seat majority, citing Stalin's 41% chief minister preference lead. Finalized seat-sharing—DMK on 164-175 seats, Congress 28—bolsters cohesion, while AIADMK-led NDA (16% odds) lags at 38-42 seats per the poll despite allocating 166-172 to AIADMK and 26-33 to BJP. Debutant TVK (5.9%) contests solo across all constituencies but polls show limited traction at 8-10 seats amid mixed voter sentiment. Nomination scrutiny on April 7 and intensified campaigning could influence dynamics.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
マーケット開始日： Dec 23, 2025, 3:53 PM ET
音量
$252,117終了日
2026/04/23マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 3:53 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Trader consensus heavily favors the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance at 79% implied probability to win the most seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election on April 23, driven by incumbency under Chief Minister M.K. Stalin and recent opinion polls projecting a landslide. The Lok Poll survey from April 1 forecasts SPA securing 181-189 of 234 seats with 40.1% vote share, well above the 118-seat majority, citing Stalin's 41% chief minister preference lead. Finalized seat-sharing—DMK on 164-175 seats, Congress 28—bolsters cohesion, while AIADMK-led NDA (16% odds) lags at 38-42 seats per the poll despite allocating 166-172 to AIADMK and 26-33 to BJP. Debutant TVK (5.9%) contests solo across all constituencies but polls show limited traction at 8-10 seats amid mixed voter sentiment. Nomination scrutiny on April 7 and intensified campaigning could influence dynamics.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
音量
$252,117終了日
2026/04/23マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 3:53 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance at 79% implied probability to win the most seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election on April 23, driven by incumbency under Chief Minister M.K. Stalin and recent opinion polls projecting a landslide. The Lok Poll survey from April 1 forecasts SPA securing 181-189 of 234 seats with 40.1% vote share, well above the 118-seat majority, citing Stalin's 41% chief minister preference lead. Finalized seat-sharing—DMK on 164-175 seats, Congress 28—bolsters cohesion, while AIADMK-led NDA (16% odds) lags at 38-42 seats per the poll despite allocating 166-172 to AIADMK and 26-33 to BJP. Debutant TVK (5.9%) contests solo across all constituencies but polls show limited traction at 8-10 seats amid mixed voter sentiment. Nomination scrutiny on April 7 and intensified campaigning could influence dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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