With Kerala Legislative Assembly election polling just days away on April 9, trader consensus heavily favors the Indian National Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) at 73% implied probability, driven by the recent Manorama News-C Voter mega survey projecting UDF 69-81 seats out of 140 amid widespread anti-incumbency against the incumbent Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) after two terms. The LDF, priced at 26%, faces vote erosion reflected in the poll's 57-69 seat range, retaining southern strongholds like Thiruvananthapuram but losing ground in central and northern districts. Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA remains negligible at 0.5%, aligning with historical patterns. Intensifying campaigns, manifesto promises on welfare pensions and health insurance, and narrow margins in battlegrounds underscore the competitive landscape.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日INC 73%
CPI(M) 26%
BJP <1%
IUML <1%
$151,115 Vol.
$151,115 Vol.
2026/04/09
INC
73%
CPI(M)
26%
BJP
1%
IUML
<1%
BSP
<1%
JD(S)
<1%
KEC(M)
<1%
CPI
<1%
RSP
<1%
NCP
<1%
INC 73%
CPI(M) 26%
BJP <1%
IUML <1%
$151,115 Vol.
$151,115 Vol.
2026/04/09
INC
$10,724 Vol.
73%
CPI(M)
$10,668 Vol.
26%
BJP
$42,027 Vol.
1%
IUML
$7,594 Vol.
<1%
BSP
$4,892 Vol.
<1%
JD(S)
$11,530 Vol.
<1%
KEC(M)
$5,367 Vol.
<1%
CPI
$18,517 Vol.
<1%
RSP
$4,832 Vol.
<1%
NCP
$34,964 Vol.
<1%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).With Kerala Legislative Assembly election polling just days away on April 9, trader consensus heavily favors the Indian National Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) at 73% implied probability, driven by the recent Manorama News-C Voter mega survey projecting UDF 69-81 seats out of 140 amid widespread anti-incumbency against the incumbent Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) after two terms. The LDF, priced at 26%, faces vote erosion reflected in the poll's 57-69 seat range, retaining southern strongholds like Thiruvananthapuram but losing ground in central and northern districts. Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA remains negligible at 0.5%, aligning with historical patterns. Intensifying campaigns, manifesto promises on welfare pensions and health insurance, and narrow margins in battlegrounds underscore the competitive landscape.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
マーケット開始日： Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
音量
$151,115終了日
2026/04/09マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).With Kerala Legislative Assembly election polling just days away on April 9, trader consensus heavily favors the Indian National Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) at 73% implied probability, driven by the recent Manorama News-C Voter mega survey projecting UDF 69-81 seats out of 140 amid widespread anti-incumbency against the incumbent Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) after two terms. The LDF, priced at 26%, faces vote erosion reflected in the poll's 57-69 seat range, retaining southern strongholds like Thiruvananthapuram but losing ground in central and northern districts. Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA remains negligible at 0.5%, aligning with historical patterns. Intensifying campaigns, manifesto promises on welfare pensions and health insurance, and narrow margins in battlegrounds underscore the competitive landscape.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
音量
$151,115終了日
2026/04/09マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With Kerala Legislative Assembly election polling just days away on April 9, trader consensus heavily favors the Indian National Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) at 73% implied probability, driven by the recent Manorama News-C Voter mega survey projecting UDF 69-81 seats out of 140 amid widespread anti-incumbency against the incumbent Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) after two terms. The LDF, priced at 26%, faces vote erosion reflected in the poll's 57-69 seat range, retaining southern strongholds like Thiruvananthapuram but losing ground in central and northern districts. Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA remains negligible at 0.5%, aligning with historical patterns. Intensifying campaigns, manifesto promises on welfare pensions and health insurance, and narrow margins in battlegrounds underscore the competitive landscape.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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