Recent opinion polls, such as the Manorama News–C Voter survey projecting INC-led United Democratic Front (UDF) at 69–81 seats and CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) at 57–69, alongside Lok Poll's UDF 77–81 forecast with 42–44% vote share, drive trader consensus favoring INC at 72.5% for the Kerala Legislative Assembly election winner ahead of April 9 polling. Anti-incumbency after LDF's two consecutive terms, corruption allegations like the Sabarimala gold controversy, agrarian distress among rubber and paddy farmers, and UDF consolidation of Muslim and Christian votes in central and northern districts have shifted momentum toward opposition comeback. LDF retains southern strongholds but faces vote erosion, pricing CPI(M) at 26.5%; NDA prospects remain negligible at 1–5 seats.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日INC 74%
CPI(M) 26%
BSP <1%
CPI <1%
$179,808 Vol.
$179,808 Vol.
2026/04/09
INC
74%
CPI(M)
26%
BSP
<1%
CPI
<1%
JD(S)
<1%
RSP
<1%
KEC(M)
<1%
BJP
<1%
NCP
<1%
IUML
<1%
INC 74%
CPI(M) 26%
BSP <1%
CPI <1%
$179,808 Vol.
$179,808 Vol.
2026/04/09
INC
$14,427 Vol.
74%
CPI(M)
$13,797 Vol.
26%
BSP
$8,173 Vol.
<1%
CPI
$21,059 Vol.
<1%
JD(S)
$14,072 Vol.
<1%
RSP
$7,438 Vol.
<1%
KEC(M)
$7,903 Vol.
<1%
BJP
$44,772 Vol.
<1%
NCP
$38,260 Vol.
<1%
IUML
$9,908 Vol.
<1%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Recent opinion polls, such as the Manorama News–C Voter survey projecting INC-led United Democratic Front (UDF) at 69–81 seats and CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) at 57–69, alongside Lok Poll's UDF 77–81 forecast with 42–44% vote share, drive trader consensus favoring INC at 72.5% for the Kerala Legislative Assembly election winner ahead of April 9 polling. Anti-incumbency after LDF's two consecutive terms, corruption allegations like the Sabarimala gold controversy, agrarian distress among rubber and paddy farmers, and UDF consolidation of Muslim and Christian votes in central and northern districts have shifted momentum toward opposition comeback. LDF retains southern strongholds but faces vote erosion, pricing CPI(M) at 26.5%; NDA prospects remain negligible at 1–5 seats.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
マーケット開始日： Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
音量
$179,808終了日
2026/04/09マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Recent opinion polls, such as the Manorama News–C Voter survey projecting INC-led United Democratic Front (UDF) at 69–81 seats and CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) at 57–69, alongside Lok Poll's UDF 77–81 forecast with 42–44% vote share, drive trader consensus favoring INC at 72.5% for the Kerala Legislative Assembly election winner ahead of April 9 polling. Anti-incumbency after LDF's two consecutive terms, corruption allegations like the Sabarimala gold controversy, agrarian distress among rubber and paddy farmers, and UDF consolidation of Muslim and Christian votes in central and northern districts have shifted momentum toward opposition comeback. LDF retains southern strongholds but faces vote erosion, pricing CPI(M) at 26.5%; NDA prospects remain negligible at 1–5 seats.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
音量
$179,808終了日
2026/04/09マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent opinion polls, such as the Manorama News–C Voter survey projecting INC-led United Democratic Front (UDF) at 69–81 seats and CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) at 57–69, alongside Lok Poll's UDF 77–81 forecast with 42–44% vote share, drive trader consensus favoring INC at 72.5% for the Kerala Legislative Assembly election winner ahead of April 9 polling. Anti-incumbency after LDF's two consecutive terms, corruption allegations like the Sabarimala gold controversy, agrarian distress among rubber and paddy farmers, and UDF consolidation of Muslim and Christian votes in central and northern districts have shifted momentum toward opposition comeback. LDF retains southern strongholds but faces vote erosion, pricing CPI(M) at 26.5%; NDA prospects remain negligible at 1–5 seats.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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