Trader consensus on Polymarket prices moderate Candidate M a slim 49.5% implied probability to win Colombia's May 31 presidential first round, narrowly ahead of leftist Iván Cepeda Castro at 41.5% and right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella at 39.5%, reflecting a fragmented three-way race under the two-round system where no candidate nears 50%. Recent AtlasIntel and Invamer polls from late April show Cepeda leading at 35-44% amid President Petro's left-wing congressional gains in March primaries, but traders discount this due to rising security fears from armed group violence, including a highway bombing killing 20 last week, potentially consolidating moderate and right-leaning voters. Upcoming debates and final campaigning could shift dynamics in battleground regions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Latest polls indicate Valencia holding steady at around 21%, maintaining a competitive but uncertain position ahead of the election
Paloma Valencia drops to 21%5%
The market reflects ongoing volatility as the election approaches with multiple candidates vying for runoff spots.
Valencia’s insurance subsidy proposal gains media attention, but critics accuse her of opportunism, causing some support erosion
Paloma Valencia drops to 26%6%
The backlash from opponents tempered enthusiasm, leading to a
Despite controversies, De la Espriella maintains a solid base of support among far-right voters, with polls showing him as a leading contender against left-wing rivals,
Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 39%4%
Despite controversies, De la Espriella maintains a solid base of support among far-right voters, with polls showing him as a leading contender against left-wing rivals, stabilizing his market
Polls released by a major Colombian research firm show Cepeda climbing to 12 % voter intention, the highest for any left‑wing candidate this cycle, boosting market confidence |
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 42%5%
Polls released by a major Colombian research firm show Cepeda climbing to 12 % voter intention, the highest for any left‑wing candidate this cycle, boosting market confidence |
The National Electoral Council (CNE) begins studying a request to revoke De la Espriella’s candidacy over alleged false signatures, introducing legal uncertainty and negative
Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 35%4%
The National Electoral Council (CNE) begins studying a request to revoke De la Espriella’s candidacy over alleged false signatures, introducing legal uncertainty and negative press that pressured his market
De la Espriella’s campaign regains momentum with regional alliances and strategic repositioning, including endorsements and media coverage emphasizing his nationalist and
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 39%16%
De la Espriella’s campaign regains momentum with regional alliances and strategic repositioning, including endorsements and media coverage emphasizing his nationalist and security-focused message ahead of the May election
Polls show centrist voters shifting toward Valencia, narrowing the gap with left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda
Paloma Valencia drops to 36%7%
Market reacted to mixed signals as Valencia’s centrist gains faced challenges from left-wing consolidation.
Valencia proposes government coverage of insurance costs for 12 million motorcycles, appealing to working-class voters
Paloma Valencia rises to 47%4%
This policy proposal was well received, expanding her appeal among a large segment of the electorate.
Historic Pact officially registers Cepeda as its presidential nominee for the May 31 election, consolidating left‑wing support after primary controversy |
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 47%9%
Historic Pact officially registers Cepeda as its presidential nominee for the May 31 election, consolidating left‑wing support after primary controversy |
Abelardo De La Espriella publicly challenges Valencia to debates, criticizing her establishment ties, causing some voter hesitation
Paloma Valencia rises to 41%4%
The confrontation highlighted intra-right tensions, briefly boosting Valencia’s visibility but also raising doubts.
Announcement of Aida Quilcué as Iván Cepeda’s running mate contrasts with Valencia’s rising campaign, highlighting the polarized contest
Paloma Valencia jumps to 37%5%
This event underscored the intensifying competition between left and right candidates, benefiting Valencia’s profile.
Primaries held; López’s vote total (575,000) is less than half of the centrist winner’s, confirming her marginal role and keeping the market at 0 %
Primaries held; López’s vote total (575,000) is less than half of the centrist winner’s, confirming her marginal role and keeping the market at 0 %
Paloma Valencia wins the “La Gran Consulta” primary with over 3 million votes, solidifying her position as the main right-wing candidate
Paloma Valencia surges to 32%20%
Her commanding primary win reshaped the race, increasing her visibility and support significantly.
Historic Pact candidate Ivan Cepeda wins parliamentary elections with overwhelming majority, consolidating left-wing support and diminishing Fajardo’s chances as a centrist
Sergio Fajardo (DC) dips to 1%2%
Historic Pact candidate Ivan Cepeda wins parliamentary elections with overwhelming majority, consolidating left-wing support and diminishing Fajardo’s chances as a centrist alternative
Vicky Dávila loses presidential primary, ending her 2026 campaign
Vicky Dávila (IND) dips to 0%3%
Her official defeat in the primary sealed her exit from the race, collapsing market probability to zero.
Supreme Court of Colombia accepts Cepeda’s extraordinary appeal (casación) on the Uribe case, signaling a possible reversal in his favour |
Iván Cepedo Castro jumps to 56%14%
Supreme Court of Colombia accepts Cepeda’s extraordinary appeal (casación) on the Uribe case, signaling a possible reversal in his favour |
A false viral poll inflates De la Espriella’s support to 83%, later debunked by credible pollsters showing him with about 20-30% support, causing volatility and skepticism among
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 23%5%
A false viral poll inflates De la Espriella’s support to 83%, later debunked by credible pollsters showing him with about 20-30% support, causing volatility and skepticism among voters and analysts
Colombia’s National Civil Registry invalidates over 500,000 of Vicky Dávila’s signatures due to irregularities
Vicky Dávila (IND) drops to 3%6%
The large-scale invalidation undermined her campaign’s credibility and electoral strength.
Cepeda publicly announces he will sue Pastrana for alleged criminal liability linked to the Epstein‑Maxwell scandal, intensifying media coverage of his anti‑corruption platform |
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 42%7%
Cepeda publicly announces he will sue Pastrana for alleged criminal liability linked to the Epstein‑Maxwell scandal, intensifying media coverage of his anti‑corruption platform |
Valencia forms strategic alliance talks with former DANE chief Juan Daniel Oviedo, aiming to broaden appeal beyond traditional conservative voters
Paloma Valencia rises to 12%4%
The potential ticket with Oviedo was seen as a move to attract centrist voters, boosting her competitiveness.
Colombian Electoral Authority (CNE) rules that Cepeda is excluded from the inter‑party “Frente por la Vida” primary, prompting his party to pledge a direct first‑round candidacy |
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 49%10%
Colombian Electoral Authority (CNE) rules that Cepeda is excluded from the inter‑party “Frente por la Vida” primary, prompting his party to pledge a direct first‑round candidacy |
Rival candidate Sergio Fajardo publicly warns that De la Espriella’s presidency would be a calamity for Colombia, highlighting growing polarization and media attention on De la
Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 36%3%
Rival candidate Sergio Fajardo publicly warns that De la Espriella’s presidency would be a calamity for Colombia, highlighting growing polarization and media attention on De la Espriella’s controversial far-right stance
Senator María Fernanda Cabal resigns from the Democratic Center party, signaling internal right-wing fragmentation;
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 39%5%
shortly after, De la Espriella gains the endorsement of Medellín mayor Federico Gutiérrez’s Creemos movement, consolidating right-wing support and improving his electoral prospects
Polls show Paloma Valencia nearly doubling her support to around 10%, emerging as the fastest-rising candidate among conservatives
Paloma Valencia jumps to 13%7%
This surge reflected growing recognition and momentum after the primary, signaling her potential to challenge other right-wing contenders.
In a high-profile debate and media appearances, De la Espriella contrasts his tough security and liberal economic proposals against left-wing rival Iván Cepeda, clarifying his
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 47%10%
In a high-profile debate and media appearances, De la Espriella contrasts his tough security and liberal economic proposals against left-wing rival Iván Cepeda, clarifying his platform and energizing his base
Despite a slight peak in market confidence to 12%, ongoing legal uncertainties related to embezzlement accusations and past governance issues continue to cloud Fajardo’s campaign
Sergio Fajardo (DC) rises to 12%1%
Despite a slight peak in market confidence to 12%, ongoing legal uncertainties related to embezzlement accusations and past governance issues continue to cloud Fajardo’s campaign prospects
Paloma Valencia wins the Democratic Center party primary decisively, becoming the first female presidential candidate for the party and consolidating far-right support
Paloma Valencia plunges to 4%18%
Her primary victory was a major milestone but initially caused market uncertainty as the broader electorate's reaction was unclear.
De la Espriella files two lawsuits against the government’s “economic emergency” decree and a controversial Treasury Securities sale, portraying himself as a defender of
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 43%5%
De la Espriella files two lawsuits against the government’s “economic emergency” decree and a controversial Treasury Securities sale, portraying himself as a defender of constitutional order and fiscal responsibility, boosting his profile among conservative voters
Cepeda files a criminal complaint accusing former President Andrés Pastrana of using state resources to host Ghislaine Maxwell, citing newly released U.S. DOJ files |
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 39%9%
Cepeda files a criminal complaint accusing former President Andrés Pastrana of using state resources to host Ghislaine Maxwell, citing newly released U.S. DOJ files |
Fajardo declares he will run solo in the May 2026 first round, rejecting interparty primaries to avoid polarization, which complicates coalition-building and weakens his
Sergio Fajardo (DC) jumps to 21%7%
Fajardo declares he will run solo in the May 2026 first round, rejecting interparty primaries to avoid polarization, which complicates coalition-building and weakens his center-right support base
Claudia López officially withdraws her candidacy after the final ballot is set, endorsing Iván Cepeda;
Claudia López (IND) dips to 0%1%
her name remains on the legal ballot but market confidence collapses to 0 %
Vicky Dávila surpasses 1 million signatures to formally register presidential bid
Vicky Dávila (IND) drops to 9%5%
Successfully meeting signature requirements showed campaign viability but market momentum was waning amid crowded field.
De la Espriella publicly details his mega-prison security proposal, reinforcing his image as the candidate with the strongest law-and-order stance, which helped regain some
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 40%12%
De la Espriella publicly details his mega-prison security proposal, reinforcing his image as the candidate with the strongest law-and-order stance, which helped regain some support after earlier declines
Superior Tribunal of Bogotá overturns Uribe’s conviction on procedural grounds, acquitting him;
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 30%8%
Cepeda’s legal team announces an extraordinary appeal |
New polling data released by Guarumo/Ecoanalítica confirms López’s backing at a historic low of 2 %, triggering a market slide to the single‑digit range
Claudia López (IND) drops to 2%5%
New polling data released by Guarumo/Ecoanalítica confirms López’s backing at a historic low of 2 %, triggering a market slide to the single‑digit range
Vicky Dávila publicly criticizes President Petro’s electoral transparency strategy amid election security concerns
Vicky Dávila (IND) dips to 14%4%
Her vocal opposition to Petro’s claims and calls for election integrity highlighted polarization but did not reverse her declining support.
Abelardo de la Espriella officially launches his 2026 presidential campaign emphasizing a hardline security platform including proposals for extreme-isolation mega-prisons to
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 39%11%
Abelardo de la Espriella officially launches his 2026 presidential campaign emphasizing a hardline security platform including proposals for extreme-isolation mega-prisons to combat organized crime, positioning himself as a tough-on-crime candidate appealing to voters concerned about public safety
Polls show López’s support falling from 11.7 % to 3.6 % as voters shift to Iván Cepeda and Paloma Valencia, pushing her below the 4 % reimbursement threshold
Claudia López (IND) dips to 7%4%
Polls show López’s support falling from 11.7 % to 3.6 % as voters shift to Iván Cepeda and Paloma Valencia, pushing her below the 4 % reimbursement threshold
Polls show Fajardo’s support dropping sharply to 14% amid growing competition and fragmented voter intentions, reflecting early market doubts about his frontrunner status
Sergio Fajardo (DC) plunges to 14%36%
Polls show Fajardo’s support dropping sharply to 14% amid growing competition and fragmented voter intentions, reflecting early market doubts about his frontrunner status
Assassination of right-wing presidential hopeful Senator Miguel Uribe Turbay
Vicky Dávila (IND) plunges to 18%16%
The death of a major right-wing contender shifted dynamics and raised security concerns, impacting Dávila’s standing.
Claudia López wins the centrist primary, beating Leonardo Huerta and positioning herself as a front‑runner for the May 2026 election
Claudia López (IND) plunges to 11%39%
Claudia López wins the centrist primary, beating Leonardo Huerta and positioning herself as a front‑runner for the May 2026 election
Sergio Fajardo announces presidential candidacy for 2026, emphasizing the need to restore order and denounce corruption and insecurity, positioning himself as a centrist uniting
Sergio Fajardo announces presidential candidacy for 2026, emphasizing the need to restore order and denounce corruption and insecurity, positioning himself as a centrist uniting left, center, and right
Colombian court convicts former President Álvaro Uribe of bribery and procedural fraud, sentencing him to 12 years house arrest;
Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 38%12%
Cepeda hailed the verdict as a breakthrough against right‑wing impunity |
Poll shows Vicky Dávila as a leading right-wing candidate with 51.9% support within center-right bloc
Vicky Dávila (IND) jumps to 34%6%
A Guaramo-EcoAnalitica poll positioned her as a frontrunner among right-wing voters, increasing market confidence.
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