United Russia leads trader consensus at 70% implied probability to secure the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma elections, reflecting its incumbency advantage, administrative resources, and targeting 55% of the proportional party-list vote alongside victories in 195 of 225 single-member districts. Recent VTsIOM polling places New People second at 10.7% support—elevating it to the top three parties for the first time per March 2026 surveys—driving its 22% odds amid a Party of Growth merger and appeal in competitive regions, prompting United Russia to brace for losses in up to 30 areas' single-member districts. Traditional opposition like LDPR (6%) and KPRF (1%) lag with stagnant ratings, underscoring the mixed electoral system's volatility where proportional lists and district wins determine the 450-seat outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日統一ロシア（ER） 70%
ニューピープル（NL） 21.7%
ロシア自由民主党（LDPR） 5.8%
ロシア連邦共産党（KPRF） 1.3%
$4,395,544 Vol.
$4,395,544 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
統一ロシア（ER）
70%
ニューピープル（NL）
22%
ロシア自由民主党（LDPR）
6%
ロシア連邦共産党（KPRF）
1%
公正ロシア・ための真実（SRZP）
1%
ロジーナ
<1%
シビック・プラットフォーム（GP）
<1%
統一ロシア（ER） 70%
ニューピープル（NL） 21.7%
ロシア自由民主党（LDPR） 5.8%
ロシア連邦共産党（KPRF） 1.3%
$4,395,544 Vol.
$4,395,544 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
統一ロシア（ER）
$1,218,021 Vol.
70%
ニューピープル（NL）
$276,815 Vol.
22%
ロシア自由民主党（LDPR）
$2,034,163 Vol.
6%
ロシア連邦共産党（KPRF）
$254,632 Vol.
1%
公正ロシア・ための真実（SRZP）
$226,558 Vol.
1%
ロジーナ
$195,953 Vol.
<1%
シビック・プラットフォーム（GP）
$189,404 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.United Russia leads trader consensus at 70% implied probability to secure the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma elections, reflecting its incumbency advantage, administrative resources, and targeting 55% of the proportional party-list vote alongside victories in 195 of 225 single-member districts. Recent VTsIOM polling places New People second at 10.7% support—elevating it to the top three parties for the first time per March 2026 surveys—driving its 22% odds amid a Party of Growth merger and appeal in competitive regions, prompting United Russia to brace for losses in up to 30 areas' single-member districts. Traditional opposition like LDPR (6%) and KPRF (1%) lag with stagnant ratings, underscoring the mixed electoral system's volatility where proportional lists and district wins determine the 450-seat outcome.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
マーケット開始日： Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
音量
$4,395,544終了日
Sep 20, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.United Russia leads trader consensus at 70% implied probability to secure the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma elections, reflecting its incumbency advantage, administrative resources, and targeting 55% of the proportional party-list vote alongside victories in 195 of 225 single-member districts. Recent VTsIOM polling places New People second at 10.7% support—elevating it to the top three parties for the first time per March 2026 surveys—driving its 22% odds amid a Party of Growth merger and appeal in competitive regions, prompting United Russia to brace for losses in up to 30 areas' single-member districts. Traditional opposition like LDPR (6%) and KPRF (1%) lag with stagnant ratings, underscoring the mixed electoral system's volatility where proportional lists and district wins determine the 450-seat outcome.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
音量
$4,395,544終了日
Sep 20, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...United Russia leads trader consensus at 70% implied probability to secure the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma elections, reflecting its incumbency advantage, administrative resources, and targeting 55% of the proportional party-list vote alongside victories in 195 of 225 single-member districts. Recent VTsIOM polling places New People second at 10.7% support—elevating it to the top three parties for the first time per March 2026 surveys—driving its 22% odds amid a Party of Growth merger and appeal in competitive regions, prompting United Russia to brace for losses in up to 30 areas' single-member districts. Traditional opposition like LDPR (6%) and KPRF (1%) lag with stagnant ratings, underscoring the mixed electoral system's volatility where proportional lists and district wins determine the 450-seat outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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