Trader consensus on Polymarket positions the CDU as the frontrunner to win the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, driven by consistent polling leads of 5-6 points in the latest February surveys from INSA and Infratest dimap. CDU holds steady at 22-23% amid a fragmented field where AfD, Die Linke, SPD, and Grüne hover around 15-17%, while FDP and BSW poll below the 5% threshold under proportional representation. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD grand coalition benefits from stability and federal momentum under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, with no major Berlin-specific developments in the past 30 days shifting trends. Recent CDU success in the March 22 Rhineland-Palatinate Landtagswahl reinforces this positioning, though campaign dynamics and turnout remain key uncertainties.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日CDU 53%
グリューネ 12.2%
リンク 11%
SPD 10.2%
$2,535,569 Vol.
$2,535,569 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
53%
グリューネ
12%
リンク
11%
SPD
10%
AfD
7%
BSW
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 53%
グリューネ 12.2%
リンク 11%
SPD 10.2%
$2,535,569 Vol.
$2,535,569 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$9,294 Vol.
53%
グリューネ
$23,306 Vol.
12%
リンク
$8,381 Vol.
11%
SPD
$285,211 Vol.
10%
AfD
$2,176,573 Vol.
7%
BSW
$18,789 Vol.
1%
FDP
$8,859 Vol.
<1%
FW
$5,157 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus on Polymarket positions the CDU as the frontrunner to win the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, driven by consistent polling leads of 5-6 points in the latest February surveys from INSA and Infratest dimap. CDU holds steady at 22-23% amid a fragmented field where AfD, Die Linke, SPD, and Grüne hover around 15-17%, while FDP and BSW poll below the 5% threshold under proportional representation. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD grand coalition benefits from stability and federal momentum under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, with no major Berlin-specific developments in the past 30 days shifting trends. Recent CDU success in the March 22 Rhineland-Palatinate Landtagswahl reinforces this positioning, though campaign dynamics and turnout remain key uncertainties.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
マーケット開始日： Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
音量
$2,535,569終了日
Sep 20, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus on Polymarket positions the CDU as the frontrunner to win the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, driven by consistent polling leads of 5-6 points in the latest February surveys from INSA and Infratest dimap. CDU holds steady at 22-23% amid a fragmented field where AfD, Die Linke, SPD, and Grüne hover around 15-17%, while FDP and BSW poll below the 5% threshold under proportional representation. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD grand coalition benefits from stability and federal momentum under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, with no major Berlin-specific developments in the past 30 days shifting trends. Recent CDU success in the March 22 Rhineland-Palatinate Landtagswahl reinforces this positioning, though campaign dynamics and turnout remain key uncertainties.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
音量
$2,535,569終了日
Sep 20, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket positions the CDU as the frontrunner to win the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, driven by consistent polling leads of 5-6 points in the latest February surveys from INSA and Infratest dimap. CDU holds steady at 22-23% amid a fragmented field where AfD, Die Linke, SPD, and Grüne hover around 15-17%, while FDP and BSW poll below the 5% threshold under proportional representation. Incumbent Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD grand coalition benefits from stability and federal momentum under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, with no major Berlin-specific developments in the past 30 days shifting trends. Recent CDU success in the March 22 Rhineland-Palatinate Landtagswahl reinforces this positioning, though campaign dynamics and turnout remain key uncertainties.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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