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icon for ベルリン州選挙の勝者
政治·グローバル選挙

ベルリン州選挙の勝者

icon for ベルリン州選挙の勝者
政治·グローバル選挙

ベルリン州選挙の勝者

CDU 37%

リンク 20%

グリューネ 19.6%

AfD 18.8%

Polymarket

$2,595,153 Vol.

CDU 37%

リンク 20%

グリューネ 19.6%

AfD 18.8%

Polymarket

$2,595,153 Vol.

icon for CDU

CDU

$18,330 Vol.

37%

icon for リンク

リンク

$14,437 Vol.

20%

icon for グリューネ

グリューネ

$30,356 Vol.

20%

icon for AfD

AfD

$2,194,552 Vol.

19%

icon for SPD

SPD

$290,553 Vol.

9%

icon for BSW

BSW

$27,919 Vol.

<1%

icon for FDP

FDP

$11,203 Vol.

<1%

icon for FW

FW

$7,804 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/) Trader consensus prices CDU as the frontrunner at 37% implied probability for plurality victory in Berlin's September 20 state election under mixed-member proportional representation, despite late April Infratest dimap and INSA polls showing CDU slipping to 19-21% amid Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's low 17% approval rating. Recent surveys reflect a four-way tie around 18% for challengers Grüne (up +2 points), Linke, and AfD, with SPD trailing at 14-17% as junior coalition partner, driving their clustered odds near 19% and SPD's 9.5%. Incumbency advantages from CDU's 2023 win (28%) and coalition stability underpin trader optimism for a CDU recovery, contrasting poll averages near 20%, with no major catalysts in the past 30 days beyond steady declines for the grand coalition.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
音量
$2,595,153
終了日
2026/09/20
マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/) Trader consensus prices CDU as the frontrunner at 37% implied probability for plurality victory in Berlin's September 20 state election under mixed-member proportional representation, despite late April Infratest dimap and INSA polls showing CDU slipping to 19-21% amid Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's low 17% approval rating. Recent surveys reflect a four-way tie around 18% for challengers Grüne (up +2 points), Linke, and AfD, with SPD trailing at 14-17% as junior coalition partner, driving their clustered odds near 19% and SPD's 9.5%. Incumbency advantages from CDU's 2023 win (28%) and coalition stability underpin trader optimism for a CDU recovery, contrasting poll averages near 20%, with no major catalysts in the past 30 days beyond steady declines for the grand coalition.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
音量
$2,595,153
終了日
2026/09/20
マーケット開始日
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「ベルリン州選挙の勝者」はPolymarket上の8個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「CDU」で37%、次いで「リンク」が20%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、37¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に37%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「ベルリン州選挙の勝者」は$2.6 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Dec 2, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「ベルリン州選挙の勝者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている8個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「ベルリン州選挙の勝者」の現在のフロントランナーは「CDU」で37%であり、市場がこの結果に37%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「リンク」で20%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「ベルリン州選挙の勝者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。