Recent defections of lawmakers and local leaders from the United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP), the MILF-affiliated party that dominated the transition authority, to the newer Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) have strengthened BFP’s position ahead of the September 14, 2026 vote. Lowered registration thresholds and a reduced electoral threshold have enabled 13 regional parliamentary parties to compete for the 40 proportional-representation seats, fragmenting the field and sustaining tight implied probabilities among leading contenders. BFP’s designation as dominant minority party, combined with unopposed district candidates and accelerating campaign activity, underpins trader consensus favoring it over UBJP. Further high-profile shifts, alliance formations, or security developments in the final weeks could widen the gap or allow other parties to gain ground in the proportional contest.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日BFP 59%
UBJP 41%
BGC 1.0%
選挙の延期・中止 <1%
$72,821 Vol.
$72,821 Vol.
BFP
59%
UBJP
41%
BGC
1%
選挙の延期・中止
1%
C4P
1%
LBIAA
1%
マハルディカ
<1%
RSEU
<1%
プログレシボ・バンサモロ党
<1%
ROHOSUMA
<1%
DTLO
<1%
RSL
<1%
ABOT
<1%
BAPA
<1%
BEST PARTY
<1%
ISAMA
<1%
MORO AKO
<1%
ムシャワラ
<1%
PBB
<1%
RAAYAT民主党
<1%
TPWC
<1%
THE ROYALS
<1%
ROHOSUPA
<1%
ISLPI
<1%
BFP 59%
UBJP 41%
BGC 1.0%
選挙の延期・中止 <1%
$72,821 Vol.
$72,821 Vol.
BFP
59%
UBJP
41%
BGC
1%
選挙の延期・中止
1%
C4P
1%
LBIAA
1%
マハルディカ
<1%
RSEU
<1%
プログレシボ・バンサモロ党
<1%
ROHOSUMA
<1%
DTLO
<1%
RSL
<1%
ABOT
<1%
BAPA
<1%
BEST PARTY
<1%
ISAMA
<1%
MORO AKO
<1%
ムシャワラ
<1%
PBB
<1%
RAAYAT民主党
<1%
TPWC
<1%
THE ROYALS
<1%
ROHOSUPA
<1%
ISLPI
<1%
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the 2026 The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) Parliamentary Elections.
If the specified election is officially canceled, rescheduled to a date after September 14, 2026, or voting does not take place by that date, 11:59 PM Philippine Standard Time, this market will resolve to "Election Postponed/Canceled." If voting takes place by September 14, 2026, but the results are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party-list votes. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Philippine Commission on Elections (COMELEC) (https://www.comelec.gov.ph/).
マーケット開始日: Jul 16, 2026, 10:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the 2026 The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) Parliamentary Elections.
If the specified election is officially canceled, rescheduled to a date after September 14, 2026, or voting does not take place by that date, 11:59 PM Philippine Standard Time, this market will resolve to "Election Postponed/Canceled." If voting takes place by September 14, 2026, but the results are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party-list votes. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Philippine Commission on Elections (COMELEC) (https://www.comelec.gov.ph/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent defections of lawmakers and local leaders from the United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP), the MILF-affiliated party that dominated the transition authority, to the newer Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) have strengthened BFP’s position ahead of the September 14, 2026 vote. Lowered registration thresholds and a reduced electoral threshold have enabled 13 regional parliamentary parties to compete for the 40 proportional-representation seats, fragmenting the field and sustaining tight implied probabilities among leading contenders. BFP’s designation as dominant minority party, combined with unopposed district candidates and accelerating campaign activity, underpins trader consensus favoring it over UBJP. Further high-profile shifts, alliance formations, or security developments in the final weeks could widen the gap or allow other parties to gain ground in the proportional contest.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日



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