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選挙·世界選挙

ダブリン中央補欠選挙の勝者

Market icon
選挙·世界選挙

ダブリン中央補欠選挙の勝者

ダニエル・エニス 75%

ジャニス・ボイラン 10.4%

ジョン・スティーブンズ 5.0%

ゲリー・ハッチ 3.5%

Polymarket

$802,671 Vol.

ダニエル・エニス 75%

ジャニス・ボイラン 10.4%

ジョン・スティーブンズ 5.0%

ゲリー・ハッチ 3.5%

Polymarket

$802,671 Vol.

ダニエル・エニス

$14,290 Vol.

75%

ジャニス・ボイラン

$6,579 Vol.

10%

ジョン・スティーブンズ

$76,546 Vol.

5%

ゲリー・ハッチ

$495,767 Vol.

4%

レイ・マカダム

$5,460 Vol.

3%

ギリアン・シェラット

$132,903 Vol.

1%

Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin

$4,948 Vol.

1%

マラキー・スティーソン

$13,993 Vol.

<1%

イアン・ノエル・スミス

$6,609 Vol.

<1%

セーアマス・マグラッタン

$4,798 Vol.

<1%

ジャネット・ホーナー

$3,711 Vol.

<1%

メアリー・フィッツパトリック

$37,067 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 75% implied probability to win the Dublin Central by-election, driven by his early selection in December 2025, strong local profile in the North Inner City, and positive canvassing reception positioning him to capture transfers from anti-establishment voters. Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan trails at 10.5% amid the party's national polling decline, while Fianna Fáil's John Stephens (5.3%), recently selected on March 30, and Fine Gael's Ray McAdam (3.2%) lag as government parties face backlash from ongoing fuel protests—McAdam's criticism of demonstrators drawing ire. Independent Gerry Hutch (3.5%) remains sidelined by a February poll showing two-thirds public rejection. The May contest fills the vacancy from Paschal Donohoe's resignation under Ireland's PR-STV system.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
音量
$802,671
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 75% implied probability to win the Dublin Central by-election, driven by his early selection in December 2025, strong local profile in the North Inner City, and positive canvassing reception positioning him to capture transfers from anti-establishment voters. Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan trails at 10.5% amid the party's national polling decline, while Fianna Fáil's John Stephens (5.3%), recently selected on March 30, and Fine Gael's Ray McAdam (3.2%) lag as government parties face backlash from ongoing fuel protests—McAdam's criticism of demonstrators drawing ire. Independent Gerry Hutch (3.5%) remains sidelined by a February poll showing two-thirds public rejection. The May contest fills the vacancy from Paschal Donohoe's resignation under Ireland's PR-STV system.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
音量
$802,671
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「ダブリン中央補欠選挙の勝者」はPolymarket上の12個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「ダニエル・エニス」で75%、次いで「ジャニス・ボイラン」が10%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、75¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に75%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「ダブリン中央補欠選挙の勝者」は$802.7Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Feb 20, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「ダブリン中央補欠選挙の勝者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている12個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「ダブリン中央補欠選挙の勝者」の現在のフロントランナーは「ダニエル・エニス」で75%であり、市場がこの結果に75%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「ジャニス・ボイラン」で10%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「ダブリン中央補欠選挙の勝者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。