Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Iván Cepeda Castro at 70.5% implied probability to win Colombia's 2026 presidential election first round on May 3, positioning him far ahead of Paloma Valencia at 20.8%, with the right-wing field fragmented among Vicky Dávila, Abelardo de la Espriella, and others below 4%. This reflects bets on Cepeda's strong standing within President Gustavo Petro's Pacto Histórico coalition as a continuity candidate, bolstered by recent party unity signals and Petro's term limits preventing his re-run. Recent polls from Invamer and Guarumo (late October–early November 2024) show a tighter race with no frontrunner above 25% and right-leaning figures like Valencia and Dávila competitive, underscoring market divergence from polling averages amid early-stage volatility. No major developments in the past week; upcoming candidate announcements and primaries could shift dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日イバン・セペダ・カストロ 71%
パロマ・バレンシア 20.8%
アベラルド・デ・ラ・エスプリエラ 3.7%
フアン・カルロス・ピンソン 1.1%
$1,640,606 Vol.
$1,640,606 Vol.
May 31, 2026
イバン・セペダ・カストロ
71%
パロマ・バレンシア
21%
アベラルド・デ・ラ・エスプリエラ
4%
フアン・カルロス・ピンソン
1%
ルイス・ヒルベルト・ムリージョ
1%
グスタボ・ボリーバル
1%
セルヒオ・ファハルド
1%
フアン・マヌエル・ガラン
1%
ヴィッキー・ダビラ
1%
ダビド・ルナ・サンチェス
<1%
クラウディア・ロペス
<1%
フアン・ダニエル・オビエド
<1%
ダニエル・キンテロ
<1%
マウリシオ・カルデナス
<1%
エンリケ・ペニャロサ
<1%
ロイ・バレラス
<1%
ヘルマン・バルガス・ジェラス
<1%
イバン・セペダ・カストロ 71%
パロマ・バレンシア 20.8%
アベラルド・デ・ラ・エスプリエラ 3.7%
フアン・カルロス・ピンソン 1.1%
$1,640,606 Vol.
$1,640,606 Vol.
May 31, 2026
イバン・セペダ・カストロ
$47,457 Vol.
71%
パロマ・バレンシア
$206,500 Vol.
21%
アベラルド・デ・ラ・エスプリエラ
$460,914 Vol.
4%
フアン・カルロス・ピンソン
$24,631 Vol.
1%
ルイス・ヒルベルト・ムリージョ
$91,663 Vol.
1%
グスタボ・ボリーバル
$67,411 Vol.
1%
セルヒオ・ファハルド
$48,216 Vol.
1%
フアン・マヌエル・ガラン
$65,708 Vol.
1%
ヴィッキー・ダビラ
$233,153 Vol.
1%
ダビド・ルナ・サンチェス
$147,212 Vol.
<1%
クラウディア・ロペス
$50,447 Vol.
<1%
フアン・ダニエル・オビエド
$32,443 Vol.
<1%
ダニエル・キンテロ
$19,326 Vol.
<1%
マウリシオ・カルデナス
$20,764 Vol.
<1%
エンリケ・ペニャロサ
$25,469 Vol.
<1%
ロイ・バレラス
$25,167 Vol.
<1%
ヘルマン・バルガス・ジェラス
$37,622 Vol.
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Iván Cepeda Castro at 70.5% implied probability to win Colombia's 2026 presidential election first round on May 3, positioning him far ahead of Paloma Valencia at 20.8%, with the right-wing field fragmented among Vicky Dávila, Abelardo de la Espriella, and others below 4%. This reflects bets on Cepeda's strong standing within President Gustavo Petro's Pacto Histórico coalition as a continuity candidate, bolstered by recent party unity signals and Petro's term limits preventing his re-run. Recent polls from Invamer and Guarumo (late October–early November 2024) show a tighter race with no frontrunner above 25% and right-leaning figures like Valencia and Dávila competitive, underscoring market divergence from polling averages amid early-stage volatility. No major developments in the past week; upcoming candidate announcements and primaries could shift dynamics.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
マーケット開始日： Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ET
音量
$1,640,606終了日
May 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Iván Cepeda Castro at 70.5% implied probability to win Colombia's 2026 presidential election first round on May 3, positioning him far ahead of Paloma Valencia at 20.8%, with the right-wing field fragmented among Vicky Dávila, Abelardo de la Espriella, and others below 4%. This reflects bets on Cepeda's strong standing within President Gustavo Petro's Pacto Histórico coalition as a continuity candidate, bolstered by recent party unity signals and Petro's term limits preventing his re-run. Recent polls from Invamer and Guarumo (late October–early November 2024) show a tighter race with no frontrunner above 25% and right-leaning figures like Valencia and Dávila competitive, underscoring market divergence from polling averages amid early-stage volatility. No major developments in the past week; upcoming candidate announcements and primaries could shift dynamics.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
音量
$1,640,606終了日
May 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Iván Cepeda Castro at 70.5% implied probability to win Colombia's 2026 presidential election first round on May 3, positioning him far ahead of Paloma Valencia at 20.8%, with the right-wing field fragmented among Vicky Dávila, Abelardo de la Espriella, and others below 4%. This reflects bets on Cepeda's strong standing within President Gustavo Petro's Pacto Histórico coalition as a continuity candidate, bolstered by recent party unity signals and Petro's term limits preventing his re-run. Recent polls from Invamer and Guarumo (late October–early November 2024) show a tighter race with no frontrunner above 25% and right-leaning figures like Valencia and Dávila competitive, underscoring market divergence from polling averages amid early-stage volatility. No major developments in the past week; upcoming candidate announcements and primaries could shift dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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