Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Scottish National Party (SNP) at 97% implied probability to win the most seats in the next Scottish Parliament election, scheduled for May 2026 under the Additional Member System combining 73 constituency seats and 56 regional list seats. This commanding position stems from recent polling averages showing SNP support at 35-38%, ahead of Scottish Labour's 26-29%, reinforced by First Minister John Swinney's stable leadership since April amid no major scandals in the past 30 days. Historical incumbency advantages and dominance in independence debates sustain the lead, with Reform UK and others trailing far behind. Scenarios that could challenge this include a Labour surge in swing constituencies, an SNP internal crisis, or fragmented pro-union votes coalescing, though no such catalysts have emerged recently.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日スコットランド議会選挙の勝者
スコットランド議会選挙の勝者
スコットランド国民党 97.0%
リフォームUK 1.2%
スコットランド労働党 1.0%
スコットランド自由民主党 <1%
$1,142,688 Vol.
$1,142,688 Vol.
May 7, 2026
スコットランド国民党
97%
リフォームUK
1%
スコットランド労働党
1%
スコットランド自由民主党
1%
ソブリンティ党
<1%
スコットランド保守党
<1%
スコットランド・グリーン党
<1%
アルバ党
<1%
スコットランド国民党 97.0%
リフォームUK 1.2%
スコットランド労働党 1.0%
スコットランド自由民主党 <1%
$1,142,688 Vol.
$1,142,688 Vol.
May 7, 2026
スコットランド国民党
$902,807 Vol.
97%
リフォームUK
$62,346 Vol.
1%
スコットランド労働党
$17,098 Vol.
1%
スコットランド自由民主党
$102,148 Vol.
1%
ソブリンティ党
$3,460 Vol.
<1%
スコットランド保守党
$4,301 Vol.
<1%
スコットランド・グリーン党
$35,200 Vol.
<1%
アルバ党
$15,327 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Scottish National Party (SNP) at 97% implied probability to win the most seats in the next Scottish Parliament election, scheduled for May 2026 under the Additional Member System combining 73 constituency seats and 56 regional list seats. This commanding position stems from recent polling averages showing SNP support at 35-38%, ahead of Scottish Labour's 26-29%, reinforced by First Minister John Swinney's stable leadership since April amid no major scandals in the past 30 days. Historical incumbency advantages and dominance in independence debates sustain the lead, with Reform UK and others trailing far behind. Scenarios that could challenge this include a Labour surge in swing constituencies, an SNP internal crisis, or fragmented pro-union votes coalescing, though no such catalysts have emerged recently.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ET
音量
$1,142,688終了日
May 7, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Scottish National Party (SNP) at 97% implied probability to win the most seats in the next Scottish Parliament election, scheduled for May 2026 under the Additional Member System combining 73 constituency seats and 56 regional list seats. This commanding position stems from recent polling averages showing SNP support at 35-38%, ahead of Scottish Labour's 26-29%, reinforced by First Minister John Swinney's stable leadership since April amid no major scandals in the past 30 days. Historical incumbency advantages and dominance in independence debates sustain the lead, with Reform UK and others trailing far behind. Scenarios that could challenge this include a Labour surge in swing constituencies, an SNP internal crisis, or fragmented pro-union votes coalescing, though no such catalysts have emerged recently.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament in this election.
If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).
音量
$1,142,688終了日
May 7, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Scottish National Party (SNP) at 97% implied probability to win the most seats in the next Scottish Parliament election, scheduled for May 2026 under the Additional Member System combining 73 constituency seats and 56 regional list seats. This commanding position stems from recent polling averages showing SNP support at 35-38%, ahead of Scottish Labour's 26-29%, reinforced by First Minister John Swinney's stable leadership since April amid no major scandals in the past 30 days. Historical incumbency advantages and dominance in independence debates sustain the lead, with Reform UK and others trailing far behind. Scenarios that could challenge this include a Labour surge in swing constituencies, an SNP internal crisis, or fragmented pro-union votes coalescing, though no such catalysts have emerged recently.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問