Recent Medián and 21 Kutatóközpont polls from mid-March show Péter Magyar's Tisza party leading Fidesz-KDNP by 14–23 points among decided voters—Tisza at 53–58%, Fidesz at 35–39%—driving trader consensus toward a Tisza popular vote margin of 9% or more (33%) in the April 12 parliamentary election. This reflects widening opposition momentum from large Tisza rallies, including 500,000 attendees on March 15, and voter frustration with Fidesz's 16-year incumbency amid economic pressures and vote-buying allegations. Fidesz retains rural strongholds and by-election wins, but Tisza has consolidated anti-Orbán support from fragmented opposition. Undecided voters, turnout in battleground districts, and final-week mobilization could tip the closely contested margin below 9%, keeping Fidesz outcomes viable at 28% total implied probability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日ティサ9％以上 33%
ティサ 3～6% 18%
ティサ6～9％ 16%
ティサ 0～3％ 10%
$1,149,372 Vol.
$1,149,372 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
ティサ9％以上
33%
ティサ6～9％
16%
ティサ 3～6%
18%
ティサ 0～3％
10%
フィデス＝キリスト教民主人民党 0～3％
9%
フィデス＝KDNP 3～6％
7%
フィデス＝KDNP 6〜9％
6%
フィデス＝KDNP 9％以上
6%
その他
<1%
ティサ9％以上 33%
ティサ 3～6% 18%
ティサ6～9％ 16%
ティサ 0～3％ 10%
$1,149,372 Vol.
$1,149,372 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
ティサ9％以上
$57,667 Vol.
33%
ティサ6～9％
$12,559 Vol.
16%
ティサ 3～6%
$36,458 Vol.
18%
ティサ 0～3％
$20,621 Vol.
10%
フィデス＝キリスト教民主人民党 0～3％
$46,872 Vol.
9%
フィデス＝KDNP 3～6％
$44,973 Vol.
7%
フィデス＝KDNP 6〜9％
$434,324 Vol.
6%
フィデス＝KDNP 9％以上
$482,824 Vol.
6%
その他
$13,073 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Recent Medián and 21 Kutatóközpont polls from mid-March show Péter Magyar's Tisza party leading Fidesz-KDNP by 14–23 points among decided voters—Tisza at 53–58%, Fidesz at 35–39%—driving trader consensus toward a Tisza popular vote margin of 9% or more (33%) in the April 12 parliamentary election. This reflects widening opposition momentum from large Tisza rallies, including 500,000 attendees on March 15, and voter frustration with Fidesz's 16-year incumbency amid economic pressures and vote-buying allegations. Fidesz retains rural strongholds and by-election wins, but Tisza has consolidated anti-Orbán support from fragmented opposition. Undecided voters, turnout in battleground districts, and final-week mobilization could tip the closely contested margin below 9%, keeping Fidesz outcomes viable at 28% total implied probability.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
マーケット開始日： Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
音量
$1,149,372終了日
Apr 12, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Recent Medián and 21 Kutatóközpont polls from mid-March show Péter Magyar's Tisza party leading Fidesz-KDNP by 14–23 points among decided voters—Tisza at 53–58%, Fidesz at 35–39%—driving trader consensus toward a Tisza popular vote margin of 9% or more (33%) in the April 12 parliamentary election. This reflects widening opposition momentum from large Tisza rallies, including 500,000 attendees on March 15, and voter frustration with Fidesz's 16-year incumbency amid economic pressures and vote-buying allegations. Fidesz retains rural strongholds and by-election wins, but Tisza has consolidated anti-Orbán support from fragmented opposition. Undecided voters, turnout in battleground districts, and final-week mobilization could tip the closely contested margin below 9%, keeping Fidesz outcomes viable at 28% total implied probability.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
音量
$1,149,372終了日
Apr 12, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Medián and 21 Kutatóközpont polls from mid-March show Péter Magyar's Tisza party leading Fidesz-KDNP by 14–23 points among decided voters—Tisza at 53–58%, Fidesz at 35–39%—driving trader consensus toward a Tisza popular vote margin of 9% or more (33%) in the April 12 parliamentary election. This reflects widening opposition momentum from large Tisza rallies, including 500,000 attendees on March 15, and voter frustration with Fidesz's 16-year incumbency amid economic pressures and vote-buying allegations. Fidesz retains rural strongholds and by-election wins, but Tisza has consolidated anti-Orbán support from fragmented opposition. Undecided voters, turnout in battleground districts, and final-week mobilization could tip the closely contested margin below 9%, keeping Fidesz outcomes viable at 28% total implied probability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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