Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and allies hold 322 seats in the 600-member parliament, falling short of the 360 needed to propose a constitutional referendum without broader support, contributing to trader consensus pricing "No" at 81.5% for a new constitution referendum announcement in 2026. In late February 2026, AKP prepared an initial draft for President Erdoğan's review—slimming articles while preserving core principles—and outlined a road map seeking multi-party input to foster consensus, gaining some momentum from a PKK peace process commission report. However, opposition parties like the CHP remain hesitant and the İYİ Party boycotts efforts, stalling advancement; no referendum call or public draft has emerged in the past month amid focus on economic reforms and municipal controls. With nine months remaining, structural barriers and lack of recent catalysts sustain skepticism.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
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新規
2026/12/31
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新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and allies hold 322 seats in the 600-member parliament, falling short of the 360 needed to propose a constitutional referendum without broader support, contributing to trader consensus pricing "No" at 81.5% for a new constitution referendum announcement in 2026. In late February 2026, AKP prepared an initial draft for President Erdoğan's review—slimming articles while preserving core principles—and outlined a road map seeking multi-party input to foster consensus, gaining some momentum from a PKK peace process commission report. However, opposition parties like the CHP remain hesitant and the İYİ Party boycotts efforts, stalling advancement; no referendum call or public draft has emerged in the past month amid focus on economic reforms and municipal controls. With nine months remaining, structural barriers and lack of recent catalysts sustain skepticism.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
音量
$5終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and allies hold 322 seats in the 600-member parliament, falling short of the 360 needed to propose a constitutional referendum without broader support, contributing to trader consensus pricing "No" at 81.5% for a new constitution referendum announcement in 2026. In late February 2026, AKP prepared an initial draft for President Erdoğan's review—slimming articles while preserving core principles—and outlined a road map seeking multi-party input to foster consensus, gaining some momentum from a PKK peace process commission report. However, opposition parties like the CHP remain hesitant and the İYİ Party boycotts efforts, stalling advancement; no referendum call or public draft has emerged in the past month amid focus on economic reforms and municipal controls. With nine months remaining, structural barriers and lack of recent catalysts sustain skepticism.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$9終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and allies hold 322 seats in the 600-member parliament, falling short of the 360 needed to propose a constitutional referendum without broader support, contributing to trader consensus pricing "No" at 81.5% for a new constitution referendum announcement in 2026. In late February 2026, AKP prepared an initial draft for President Erdoğan's review—slimming articles while preserving core principles—and outlined a road map seeking multi-party input to foster consensus, gaining some momentum from a PKK peace process commission report. However, opposition parties like the CHP remain hesitant and the İYİ Party boycotts efforts, stalling advancement; no referendum call or public draft has emerged in the past month amid focus on economic reforms and municipal controls. With nine months remaining, structural barriers and lack of recent catalysts sustain skepticism.
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