Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass holds a slim edge at 41.5% in trader consensus for the Los Angeles mayoral race, driven by a recent LA Times/Berkeley IGS poll showing her at 25% among likely voters despite net unfavorable ratings of -25%, fueled by persistent homelessness surges, crime spikes, and Palisades wildfire fallout. Challenger Nithya Raman, a city councilmember and former Bass ally, trails closely at 36% implied probability and 17% in polling with positive favorables (+3%), gaining from promises to fix broken streetlights, sidewalks, and city services amid high undecideds (26%). Reality TV star Spencer Pratt's 16.5% reflects celebrity buzz criticizing Bass's handling of crises. With the June 2 primary looming, endorsements, debates, or fresh scandals could separate the top contenders in this closely contested, low-turnout field.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日カレン・バス 41%
ニティヤ・ラマン 36%
スペンサー・プラット 17%
レイ・ホアン 3.4%
$700,558 Vol.
$700,558 Vol.
カレン・バス
41%
ニティヤ・ラマン
36%
スペンサー・プラット
17%
レイ・ホアン
3%
ジーナ・ヴィオラ
2%
リック・カルーソ
1%
アサード・アルナッジャル
1%
アダム・ミラー
<1%
オースティン・ビュートナー
<1%
モニカ・ロドリゲス
<1%
リンジー・ホーヴァス
<1%
カレン・バス 41%
ニティヤ・ラマン 36%
スペンサー・プラット 17%
レイ・ホアン 3.4%
$700,558 Vol.
$700,558 Vol.
カレン・バス
41%
ニティヤ・ラマン
36%
スペンサー・プラット
17%
レイ・ホアン
3%
ジーナ・ヴィオラ
2%
リック・カルーソ
1%
アサード・アルナッジャル
1%
アダム・ミラー
<1%
オースティン・ビュートナー
<1%
モニカ・ロドリゲス
<1%
リンジー・ホーヴァス
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
マーケット開始日： Oct 9, 2025, 4:35 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass holds a slim edge at 41.5% in trader consensus for the Los Angeles mayoral race, driven by a recent LA Times/Berkeley IGS poll showing her at 25% among likely voters despite net unfavorable ratings of -25%, fueled by persistent homelessness surges, crime spikes, and Palisades wildfire fallout. Challenger Nithya Raman, a city councilmember and former Bass ally, trails closely at 36% implied probability and 17% in polling with positive favorables (+3%), gaining from promises to fix broken streetlights, sidewalks, and city services amid high undecideds (26%). Reality TV star Spencer Pratt's 16.5% reflects celebrity buzz criticizing Bass's handling of crises. With the June 2 primary looming, endorsements, debates, or fresh scandals could separate the top contenders in this closely contested, low-turnout field.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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