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政治·米国選挙

2026年に出馬しない共和党の下院議員は何人いますか？

Market icon
政治·米国選挙

2026年に出馬しない共和党の下院議員は何人いますか？

36～39 40.8%

40～43 36.2%

44人以上 6.9%

28～31 6%

Polymarket

$32,766 Vol.

36～39 40.8%

40～43 36.2%

44人以上 6.9%

28～31 6%

Polymarket

$32,766 Vol.

24未満

$3,392 Vol.

5%

24〜27

$16,234 Vol.

2%

28～31

$6,882 Vol.

6%

32〜35

$3,914 Vol.

6%

36～39

$2,344 Vol.

41%

40～43

$0 Vol.

35%

44人以上

$0 Vol.

9%

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.A surge of Republican House retirement announcements in March—including Transportation Chair Sam Graves (March 27), Darrell Issa (March 6), Tony Gonzales (March 5), Burgess Owens (March 4), and Ryan Zinke (March 2)—has elevated the confirmed total to 37 incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026, per trackers like Ballotpedia and AP News. Trader consensus, with 36–39 (40.8%) edging 40–43 (34.7%), reflects this accelerated pace amid a narrow GOP majority vulnerable to midterm losses typical for the president's party, alongside opportunities for Senate or gubernatorial bids. The tight race persists due to early-cycle uncertainty and historical patterns where announcements peak later; further clusters from vulnerable incumbents or leadership shifts could push toward 44+, while a slowdown favors lower bins ahead of primary filing deadlines.

A surge of Republican House retirement announcements in March—including Transportation Chair Sam Graves (March 27), Darrell Issa (March 6), Tony Gonzales (March 5), Burgess Owens (March 4), and Ryan Zinke (March 2)—has elevated the confirmed total to 37 incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026, per trackers like Ballotpedia and AP News. Trader consensus, with 36–39 (40.8%) edging 40–43 (34.7%), reflects this accelerated pace amid a narrow GOP majority vulnerable to midterm losses typical for the president's party, alongside opportunities for Senate or gubernatorial bids. The tight race persists due to early-cycle uncertainty and historical patterns where announcements peak later; further clusters from vulnerable incumbents or leadership shifts could push toward 44+, while a slowdown favors lower bins ahead of primary filing deadlines.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.A surge of Republican House retirement announcements in March—including Transportation Chair Sam Graves (March 27), Darrell Issa (March 6), Tony Gonzales (March 5), Burgess Owens (March 4), and Ryan Zinke (March 2)—has elevated the confirmed total to 37 incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026, per trackers like Ballotpedia and AP News. Trader consensus, with 36–39 (40.8%) edging 40–43 (34.7%), reflects this accelerated pace amid a narrow GOP majority vulnerable to midterm losses typical for the president's party, alongside opportunities for Senate or gubernatorial bids. The tight race persists due to early-cycle uncertainty and historical patterns where announcements peak later; further clusters from vulnerable incumbents or leadership shifts could push toward 44+, while a slowdown favors lower bins ahead of primary filing deadlines.

A surge of Republican House retirement announcements in March—including Transportation Chair Sam Graves (March 27), Darrell Issa (March 6), Tony Gonzales (March 5), Burgess Owens (March 4), and Ryan Zinke (March 2)—has elevated the confirmed total to 37 incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026, per trackers like Ballotpedia and AP News. Trader consensus, with 36–39 (40.8%) edging 40–43 (34.7%), reflects this accelerated pace amid a narrow GOP majority vulnerable to midterm losses typical for the president's party, alongside opportunities for Senate or gubernatorial bids. The tight race persists due to early-cycle uncertainty and historical patterns where announcements peak later; further clusters from vulnerable incumbents or leadership shifts could push toward 44+, while a slowdown favors lower bins ahead of primary filing deadlines.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「2026年に出馬しない共和党の下院議員は何人いますか？」はPolymarket上の7個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「36～39」で41%、次いで「40～43」が35%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、41¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に41%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2026年に出馬しない共和党の下院議員は何人いますか？」は$32.8Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Dec 12, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2026年に出馬しない共和党の下院議員は何人いますか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている7個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2026年に出馬しない共和党の下院議員は何人いますか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「36～39」で41%であり、市場がこの結果に41%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「40～43」で35%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2026年に出馬しない共和党の下院議員は何人いますか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。