Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin Republican primary runoff between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and incumbent Senator John Cornyn, with Paxton's 9%+ margin edging Cornyn's at similar implied probabilities amid fragmented pricing across bins. The race remains deadlocked due to Paxton's strong appeal to the Trump-aligned base via his border security and anti-establishment record, countered by Cornyn's incumbency advantages, superior fundraising, and establishment endorsements despite criticism over Ukraine aid and bipartisan deals. No major polls or endorsements have emerged in the past 30 days to separate them, leaving dynamics hinging on potential Trump intervention, turnout among primary voters, and attack ads; upcoming filing deadlines and early fundraising reports could tip odds toward a decisive margin.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Paxton 9%+ 24.7%
Cornyn 9%+ 21%
Cornyn <3% 11.6%
Cornyn 3–6% 10%
$16,375 Vol.
$16,375 Vol.
May 25, 2026
Paxton 9%+
25%
Paxton 6–9%
6%
Paxton 3–6%
10%
Paxton <3%
7%
Cornyn <3%
12%
Cornyn 3–6%
10%
Cornyn 6–9%
8%
Cornyn 9%+
21%
Paxton 9%+ 24.7%
Cornyn 9%+ 21%
Cornyn <3% 11.6%
Cornyn 3–6% 10%
$16,375 Vol.
$16,375 Vol.
May 25, 2026
Paxton 9%+
$5,105 Vol.
25%
Paxton 6–9%
$3,652 Vol.
6%
Paxton 3–6%
$2,818 Vol.
10%
Paxton <3%
$4,800 Vol.
7%
Cornyn <3%
$0 Vol.
12%
Cornyn 3–6%
$0 Vol.
10%
Cornyn 6–9%
$0 Vol.
8%
Cornyn 9%+
$0 Vol.
21%
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin Republican primary runoff between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and incumbent Senator John Cornyn, with Paxton's 9%+ margin edging Cornyn's at similar implied probabilities amid fragmented pricing across bins. The race remains deadlocked due to Paxton's strong appeal to the Trump-aligned base via his border security and anti-establishment record, countered by Cornyn's incumbency advantages, superior fundraising, and establishment endorsements despite criticism over Ukraine aid and bipartisan deals. No major polls or endorsements have emerged in the past 30 days to separate them, leaving dynamics hinging on potential Trump intervention, turnout among primary voters, and attack ads; upcoming filing deadlines and early fundraising reports could tip odds toward a decisive margin.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
マーケット開始日： Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ET
音量
$16,375終了日
May 25, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin Republican primary runoff between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and incumbent Senator John Cornyn, with Paxton's 9%+ margin edging Cornyn's at similar implied probabilities amid fragmented pricing across bins. The race remains deadlocked due to Paxton's strong appeal to the Trump-aligned base via his border security and anti-establishment record, countered by Cornyn's incumbency advantages, superior fundraising, and establishment endorsements despite criticism over Ukraine aid and bipartisan deals. No major polls or endorsements have emerged in the past 30 days to separate them, leaving dynamics hinging on potential Trump intervention, turnout among primary voters, and attack ads; upcoming filing deadlines and early fundraising reports could tip odds toward a decisive margin.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
音量
$16,375終了日
May 25, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin Republican primary runoff between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and incumbent Senator John Cornyn, with Paxton's 9%+ margin edging Cornyn's at similar implied probabilities amid fragmented pricing across bins. The race remains deadlocked due to Paxton's strong appeal to the Trump-aligned base via his border security and anti-establishment record, countered by Cornyn's incumbency advantages, superior fundraising, and establishment endorsements despite criticism over Ukraine aid and bipartisan deals. No major polls or endorsements have emerged in the past 30 days to separate them, leaving dynamics hinging on potential Trump intervention, turnout among primary voters, and attack ads; upcoming filing deadlines and early fundraising reports could tip odds toward a decisive margin.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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