In New Jersey's 12th Congressional District Democratic primary on June 4, trader consensus gives Brad Cohen a slim edge at 37.5% implied probability, fueled by his fundraising dominance—$1.2 million cash on hand from over 5,000 donors—and leads in recent Emerson and Data for Progress polls amid Bonnie Watson Coleman's retirement from the open seat. Verlina Reynolds-Jackson (32%) draws progressive backing as an assemblywoman, while Susan Altman (23%) leverages neighboring district name recognition, sustaining a tight three-way contest in diverse Middlesex and Somerset counties. Separation could arise from final endorsements, candidate forums, early voting trends, or turnout among key blocs like Jewish voters and union households before absentee deadlines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日ブラッド・コーエン 37%
ヴァリーナ・レイノルズ＝ジャクソン 25%
スーザン・アルトマン 16%
アダム・ハマウィ 7%
$24,163 Vol.
$24,163 Vol.
Jun 2, 2026
ブラッド・コーエン
37%
ヴァリーナ・レイノルズ＝ジャクソン
34%
スーザン・アルトマン
23%
アダム・ハマウィ
7%
マシュー・アダムズ
5%
エイドリアン・マップ
4%
イライジャ・ディクソン
3%
マイケル・アンダーソン
2%
カイル・リトル
2%
レイモンド・ヘック
2%
テニール・R・マッコイ
1%
ブラッド・コーエン 37%
ヴァリーナ・レイノルズ＝ジャクソン 25%
スーザン・アルトマン 16%
アダム・ハマウィ 7%
$24,163 Vol.
$24,163 Vol.
Jun 2, 2026
ブラッド・コーエン
$728 Vol.
37%
ヴァリーナ・レイノルズ＝ジャクソン
$0 Vol.
34%
スーザン・アルトマン
$13,935 Vol.
23%
アダム・ハマウィ
$413 Vol.
7%
マシュー・アダムズ
$676 Vol.
5%
エイドリアン・マップ
$0 Vol.
4%
イライジャ・ディクソン
$779 Vol.
3%
マイケル・アンダーソン
$1,600 Vol.
2%
カイル・リトル
$831 Vol.
2%
レイモンド・ヘック
$712 Vol.
2%
テニール・R・マッコイ
$4,487 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
マーケット開始日： Mar 2, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
音量
$24,163終了日
Jun 2, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 2, 2026, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$24,163終了日
Jun 2, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 2, 2026, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...In New Jersey's 12th Congressional District Democratic primary on June 4, trader consensus gives Brad Cohen a slim edge at 37.5% implied probability, fueled by his fundraising dominance—$1.2 million cash on hand from over 5,000 donors—and leads in recent Emerson and Data for Progress polls amid Bonnie Watson Coleman's retirement from the open seat. Verlina Reynolds-Jackson (32%) draws progressive backing as an assemblywoman, while Susan Altman (23%) leverages neighboring district name recognition, sustaining a tight three-way contest in diverse Middlesex and Somerset counties. Separation could arise from final endorsements, candidate forums, early voting trends, or turnout among key blocs like Jewish voters and union households before absentee deadlines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問